Huskers Have Fourth-Most Expected Wins per Football Outsiders

Mavric

Mavric

Yoda
Staff member
Yeah, I know, there are 1,000 reasons why it won't happen and it will change weekly. But, HEY!!! We "have a very strong chance of winning the Big Ten right now."

With trips to Ole Miss and Alabama on the horizon, Mississippi State, No. 4 in the current F/+ rankings, doesn't have the greatest chance in the world of finishing undefeated. But there's still about a 1-in-2 chance that the Bulldogs reach the SEC title game (if they qualify) at 11-1 or better.

Meanwhile, it appears Oregon and Nebraska have the best chances to reach their respective conference title games with just one overall loss.\\

<snip>

Nebraska has crept up to 13th in the F/+ rankings. The Huskers don't have much to offer beyond Ameer Abdullah's rushing yards, but that alone has gotten them into the top 30 of Off. F/+. Meanwhile, the defense is up to 13th thanks to a lack of true weaknesses and an occasionally great pass defense.

Here's the Huskers' remaining conference slate: Purdue (64th), at Wisconsin (29th), Minnesota (42nd) and at Iowa (49th). The trip to Madison looks a lot tougher after the Badgers' total dominance of Maryland last week, but F/+ still really likes Nebraska.
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SB Nation

 
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Mavric said:
Yeah, I know, there are 1,000 reasons why it won't happen and it will change weekly. But, HEY!!! We "have a very strong chance of winning the Big Ten right now."

With trips to Ole Miss and Alabama on the horizon, Mississippi State, No. 4 in the current F/+ rankings, doesn't have the greatest chance in the world of finishing undefeated. But there's still about a 1-in-2 chance that the Bulldogs reach the SEC title game (if they qualify) at 11-1 or better.

Meanwhile, it appears Oregon and Nebraska have the best chances to reach their respective conference title games with just one overall loss.\\

<snip>

Nebraska has crept up to 13th in the F/+ rankings. The Huskers don't have much to offer beyond Ameer Abdullah's rushing yards, but that alone has gotten them into the top 30 of Off. F/+. Meanwhile, the defense is up to 13th thanks to a lack of true weaknesses and an occasionally great pass defense.

Here's the Huskers' remaining conference slate: Purdue (64th), at Wisconsin (29th), Minnesota (42nd) and at Iowa (49th). The trip to Madison looks a lot tougher after the Badgers' total dominance of Maryland last week, but F/+ still really likes Nebraska.
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SB Nation
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The quoted paragraphs don't have much to offer beyond one author's opinion, but there are very few true weaknesses in it.
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The Huskers can't afford to get caught up in worrying about how to get in the playoff at 12-1, or we'll find ourselves worrying about how to get in the CCG at 10-2.

 
C N Red said:
Kernal said:
The Huskers can't afford to get caught up in worrying about how to get in the playoff at 12-1, or we'll find ourselves worrying about how to get in the CCG at 10-2.
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Agree 100%!!!
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Yep. The pre-season goals are still intact. Win the division and then win the conference. Just like recruiting, national perception, playoffs etc....WINNING CURES ALL.

 
Some pretty high win chances there. 96.5% to beat Purdue? LOL. Two weeks ago they put a scare into Michigan St, you think it's not just a little more possible they could upset us? Ohio St 96.7% over Michigan? You don't think there's a little more chance for Michigan, bad as their season has been, to wake up for a rivalry game and try to salvage their season? Those numbers are Ohio State over Northwestern or Nebraska over Kansas in the 70s and 80s, not the parity of football these days.

 
VA Husker Fan said:
Some pretty high win chances there. 96.5% to beat Purdue? LOL. Two weeks ago they put a scare into Michigan St, you think it's not just a little more possible they could upset us? Ohio St 96.7% over Michigan? You don't think there's a little more chance for Michigan, bad as their season has been, to wake up for a rivalry game and try to salvage their season? Those numbers are Ohio State over Northwestern or Nebraska over Kansas in the 70s and 80s, not the parity of football these days.
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I think the statistical models this guy is using really likes Nebraska right now. In some other articles I've read by him he's pumped them up. If you look at the 3 wins in conference play so far Nebraska has won by a margin of 42-18 and Purdue is grading out in line with those opponents. If you also look at this guy's picks they are pretty accurate for teams that he has a 90-100% chance of winning they have been 78-3 (96%) on the season.

 
worldsworstoutdoorsman said:
VA Husker Fan said:
Some pretty high win chances there. 96.5% to beat Purdue? LOL. Two weeks ago they put a scare into Michigan St, you think it's not just a little more possible they could upset us? Ohio St 96.7% over Michigan? You don't think there's a little more chance for Michigan, bad as their season has been, to wake up for a rivalry game and try to salvage their season? Those numbers are Ohio State over Northwestern or Nebraska over Kansas in the 70s and 80s, not the parity of football these days.
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I think the statistical models this guy is using really likes Nebraska right now. In some other articles I've read by him he's pumped them up. If you look at the 3 wins in conference play so far Nebraska has won by a margin of 42-18 and Purdue is grading out in line with those opponents. If you also look at this guy's picks they are pretty accurate for teams that he has a 90-100% chance of winning they have been 78-3 (96%) on the season.
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Yeah, I dunno about tOSU being 96.7% certainty to beat Meechicken. It's a rival game. Like USC/UCLA. Anything can happen.

That said, I don't think Urban will relax one bit preparing for this one. And I don't think Brady Hoke has much left in the tank.

 
NUance said:
worldsworstoutdoorsman said:
VA Husker Fan said:
Some pretty high win chances there. 96.5% to beat Purdue? LOL. Two weeks ago they put a scare into Michigan St, you think it's not just a little more possible they could upset us? Ohio St 96.7% over Michigan? You don't think there's a little more chance for Michigan, bad as their season has been, to wake up for a rivalry game and try to salvage their season? Those numbers are Ohio State over Northwestern or Nebraska over Kansas in the 70s and 80s, not the parity of football these days.
Click to expand...
I think the statistical models this guy is using really likes Nebraska right now. In some other articles I've read by him he's pumped them up. If you look at the 3 wins in conference play so far Nebraska has won by a margin of 42-18 and Purdue is grading out in line with those opponents. If you also look at this guy's picks they are pretty accurate for teams that he has a 90-100% chance of winning they have been 78-3 (96%) on the season.
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Yeah, I dunno about tOSU being 96.7% certainty to beat Meechicken. It's a rival game. Like USC/UCLA. Anything can happen.

That said, I don't think Urban will relax one bit preparing for this one. And I don't think Brady Hoke has much left in the tank.
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the stakes are pretty high.

 
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