Huskers in 2022 per ESPN SP+

Mavric

Mavric

Yoda
Staff member
Huskers were #37 in the final SP+ rankings for 2021.  They are #34 in their first-edition for 2022.

I base these projections on three primary factors, weighted by their predictiveness:

1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year's SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production make up more than two-thirds of the projections formula.

2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team's potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the last few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). Beginning in 2022, this category also is impacted a bit by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers. This is a new thing, and I'm not giving it much weight right away, but it will have a slight impact. This piece makes up about one-fifth of the projections formula.

3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from previous seasons (two to four years ago) gives us a good measure of overall program health. It stands to reason that a team that has played well for one year is less likely to duplicate that effort than a team that has been good for years on end (and vice versa), right? This is a minor piece of the puzzle, but the projections are better with it than without.
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Huskers and Opponents for 2022 (not including FCS North Dakota):

TEAM         PROJ. SP+    OFF. SP+    DEF. SP+
 4. Michigan      21.5    40.7 (5)    19.2 (19)
 7. Oklahoma      19.2    39.9 (6)    20.7 (27)
10. Wisconsin     17.7    29.3 (62)   11.6 (2)
19. Minnesota     14.6    31.1 (48)   16.5 (9)
26. Iowa          13.1    26.6 (74)   13.5 (3)
27. Purdue        12.8    32.5 (39)   19.7 (22)
34. Nebraska      11.7    33.5 (36)   21.8 (37)
77. Rutgers       -0.3    22.9 (98)   23.2 (44)
78. Indiana       -0.5    23.8 (93)   24.3 (54)
83. Illinois      -2.2    21.5 (106)  23.6 (49)
89. Northwestern  -4.2    21.0 (109)  25.2 (61)
105. Ga. Southern -8.8    23.1 (96)   31.9 (104)
 

Six top-30 teams ahead of us.

There is quite a drop to the teams ranked below us.  And they are all expected to be pretty bad on offense.  We really need to win those six.  And hopefully grab a couple others.

 
Mavric said:
Huskers were #37 in the final SP+ rankings for 2021.  They are #34 in their first-edition for 2022.

Huskers and Opponents for 2022 (not including FCS North Dakota):

TEAM         PROJ. SP+    OFF. SP+    DEF. SP+
 4. Michigan      21.5    40.7 (5)    19.2 (19)
 7. Oklahoma      19.2    39.9 (6)    20.7 (27)
10. Wisconsin     17.7    29.3 (62)   11.6 (2)
19. Minnesota     14.6    31.1 (48)   16.5 (9)
26. Iowa          13.1    26.6 (74)   13.5 (3)
27. Purdue        12.8    32.5 (39)   19.7 (22)
34. Nebraska      11.7    33.5 (36)   21.8 (37)
77. Rutgers       -0.3    22.9 (98)   23.2 (44)
78. Indiana       -0.5    23.8 (93)   24.3 (54)
83. Illinois      -2.2    21.5 (106)  23.6 (49)
89. Northwestern  -4.2    21.0 (109)  25.2 (61)
105. Ga. Southern -8.8    23.1 (96)   31.9 (104)
 

Six top-30 teams ahead of us.

There is quite a drop to the teams ranked below us.  And they are all expected to be pretty bad on offense.  We really need to win those six.  And hopefully grab a couple others.
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You really have to be a s#!tty team if you can't win 6.  And that's the floor.  Anything less gets shown the door. 

If you win 7  <_<

If you win 8, it means you beat the 6 teams that most P5 teams would, plus beating Minnesota and Purdue.  Impressive <_<

If you can win 9 with this easy schedule of opponents, then we talking turkey.  8 winnable games +1 you don't know how to beat.

 
Mavric said:
Huskers were #37 in the final SP+ rankings for 2021.  They are #34 in their first-edition for 2022.

Huskers and Opponents for 2022 (not including FCS North Dakota):

TEAM         PROJ. SP+    OFF. SP+    DEF. SP+
 4. Michigan      21.5    40.7 (5)    19.2 (19)
 7. Oklahoma      19.2    39.9 (6)    20.7 (27)
10. Wisconsin     17.7    29.3 (62)   11.6 (2)
19. Minnesota     14.6    31.1 (48)   16.5 (9)
26. Iowa          13.1    26.6 (74)   13.5 (3)
27. Purdue        12.8    32.5 (39)   19.7 (22)
34. Nebraska      11.7    33.5 (36)   21.8 (37)
77. Rutgers       -0.3    22.9 (98)   23.2 (44)
78. Indiana       -0.5    23.8 (93)   24.3 (54)
83. Illinois      -2.2    21.5 (106)  23.6 (49)
89. Northwestern  -4.2    21.0 (109)  25.2 (61)
105. Ga. Southern -8.8    23.1 (96)   31.9 (104)
 

Six top-30 teams ahead of us.

There is quite a drop to the teams ranked below us.  And they are all expected to be pretty bad on offense.  We really need to win those six.  And hopefully grab a couple others.
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Didn’t they get the memo?  We have a new quarterback.  

 
I have a similar feeling that I did in Scott's first year. And, let's face it, this is a first year of sorts. Yes, we got a boatload from the transfer portal. Yes, we did address the player and coach issues with the offense and the special teams. And, it would seem like a good bet that Eric and the defense are going to be at least serviceable. When you glue all the parts together, what do you have? We'll find out when the games start. And not before. The spring and summer news are always a rainbow ride to Kool Aid town. When Scott took the reins in 2018, I had no expectations and hoped for the best. I ended up being shocked by the worst... 0-7 to start if I am remembering right. Again, I am hoping for the best but not putting a number on it, and, maybe, its the reverse and we get more good than bad. Regardless, it's almost impossible to predict it in February.

 
Remember that NU is horrible and Minny, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Purdue all struggled or needed luck to beat NU.

Once you realize that you will realize that NU, with just no luck or good luck (anything other than back luck) is a 9-10 win season.

 
teachercd said:
Remember that NU is horrible and Minny, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Purdue all struggled or needed luck to beat NU.

Once you realize that you will realize that NU, with just no luck or good luck (anything other than back luck) is a 9-10 win season.
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4839178.jpg


 
teachercd said:
Once you realize that you will realize that NU, with just no luck or good luck (anything other than back luck) is a 9-10 win season.
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When it happens year after year for 4 years consecutively is it luck? I mean, NU could write the book on how to give away sure wins, choke, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and just "blow it" so regularly you could set your watch by it.

 
Dogs In A Pile said:
When it happens year after year for 4 years consecutively is it luck? I mean, NU could write the book on how to give away sure wins, choke, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and just "blow it" so regularly you could set your watch by it.
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Doesn't matter the word you use...it just matters that it happens.

Look, Vegas (the place with big buildings that never turns off the lights) had NU favored in almost every game.

 
teachercd said:
Doesn't matter the word you use...it just matters that it happens.

Look, Vegas (the place with big buildings that never turns off the lights) had NU favored in almost every game.
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Vegas and... CBS, Fox, ESPN, oddsshark, Draftkings, Fanduel, Walter Football, etc., etc., etc.,..

Under performing was a monkey wrench.

IIRC, Michigan was a 2 or 3 point fav (Big 10 champs) against the Huskers!. 

Ohio State was a touchdown favorite (around 8).

THEE Ohio State.

 
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