I don't understand the line

WYHusk

WYHusk

Five-Star Recruit
Apologies if this has been covered elsewhere, but I really do not get the line for this game. Oddsmakers don't give a rip about respect and all that, right? They're in it purely for the benjamins, right? So how can the #8-ranked team be only a FG favorite over unranked, 1-1 UW?

Someone who understands sports betting please explain this to me. Thank you.

I will say, if I was laying cash on this game, this would be an easy one.

 
We haven't played a full game of quality football on either side of the ball yet, and this is coming off of a season where we had an historically inept offense. We're facing an NFL-caliber QB in his house, a house known nation-wide for being very loud/hostile. On top of all that we're starting a RFreshman who, while showing flashes of brilliance, has yet to take the training wheels off. Even if they do in this game, how is he going to do? Hard to say.

The line is a reaction to the bets placed on the game, not a de facto prediction by Vegas on who will win. All the betters out there are taking all of the above into consideration and placing bets accordingly. It's not a ridiculous line.

 
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knapplc said:
We haven't played a full game of quality football on either side of the ball yet, and this is coming off of a season where we had an historically inept offense. We're facing an NFL-caliber QB in his house, a house known nation-wide for being very loud/hostile. On top of all that we're starting a RFreshman who, while showing flashes of brilliance, has yet to take the training wheels off. Even if they do in this game, how is he going to do? Hard to say.

The line is a reaction to the bets placed on the game, not a de facto prediction by Vegas on who will win. All the betters out there are taking all of the above into consideration and placing bets accordingly. It's not a ridiculous line.
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Okay, so when the line started at 4.5, as I think it did, lots of people took that action? So the line moved down to 3? Is that right?

Apologies for the ignorance.

 
HuskerfaninOkieland said:
Some of it I think has to do with our offensive performance last year, an untested QB and being an away game.
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We've been drinking so much :koolaid2: it's easy to think we're gonna dominate Washington, hence your frustration with the 3-pt spread. Rankings aside, this trip to Seattle, one of the noisiest stadiums in the country, is the first big test our Martinez-lead offense is facing, and our D is going against the premier QB in the land. Looking at it that way, it's no wonder the odds-makers won't believe in us or our top 10 ranking till they see how we handle this situation.

 
Typically, a home field advantage, such as Husky stadium is good for 7-10 points or so on the line, so us being favored by 3.5 doesn't surprise me at all. I think we win the game by 10-14 points, minimum.

 
WYHusk said:
knapplc said:
We haven't played a full game of quality football on either side of the ball yet, and this is coming off of a season where we had an historically inept offense. We're facing an NFL-caliber QB in his house, a house known nation-wide for being very loud/hostile. On top of all that we're starting a RFreshman who, while showing flashes of brilliance, has yet to take the training wheels off. Even if they do in this game, how is he going to do? Hard to say.

The line is a reaction to the bets placed on the game, not a de facto prediction by Vegas on who will win. All the betters out there are taking all of the above into consideration and placing bets accordingly. It's not a ridiculous line.
Click to expand...
Okay, so when the line started at 4.5, as I think it did, lots of people took that action? So the line moved down to 3? Is that right?

Apologies for the ignorance.
Click to expand...
people were betting big on udub, so they wanted to entice gamblers to bet NU. it is about keeping an even line.

 
dp, sorry. visit the sellout streak thread, we must get to ten pages by game time.

 
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sd said:
WYHusk said:
knapplc said:
We haven't played a full game of quality football on either side of the ball yet, and this is coming off of a season where we had an historically inept offense. We're facing an NFL-caliber QB in his house, a house known nation-wide for being very loud/hostile. On top of all that we're starting a RFreshman who, while showing flashes of brilliance, has yet to take the training wheels off. Even if they do in this game, how is he going to do? Hard to say.

The line is a reaction to the bets placed on the game, not a de facto prediction by Vegas on who will win. All the betters out there are taking all of the above into consideration and placing bets accordingly. It's not a ridiculous line.
Click to expand...
Okay, so when the line started at 4.5, as I think it did, lots of people took that action? So the line moved down to 3? Is that right?

Apologies for the ignorance.
Click to expand...
people were betting big on udub, so they wanted to entice gamblers to bet NU. it is about keeping an even line.
Click to expand...
Oh, I see, so it was backwards of what I thought. Well, that makes a little more sense. Thanks.

 
WYHusk said:
sd said:
WYHusk said:
knapplc said:
We haven't played a full game of quality football on either side of the ball yet, and this is coming off of a season where we had an historically inept offense. We're facing an NFL-caliber QB in his house, a house known nation-wide for being very loud/hostile. On top of all that we're starting a RFreshman who, while showing flashes of brilliance, has yet to take the training wheels off. Even if they do in this game, how is he going to do? Hard to say.

The line is a reaction to the bets placed on the game, not a de facto prediction by Vegas on who will win. All the betters out there are taking all of the above into consideration and placing bets accordingly. It's not a ridiculous line.
Click to expand...
Okay, so when the line started at 4.5, as I think it did, lots of people took that action? So the line moved down to 3? Is that right?

Apologies for the ignorance.
Click to expand...
people were betting big on udub, so they wanted to entice gamblers to bet NU. it is about keeping an even line.
Click to expand...
Oh, I see, so it was backwards of what I thought. Well, that makes a little more sense. Thanks.
Click to expand...
yes. the handicappers come out with the initial line, and hope it does not move. but they want an equal amount of people betting for each team, so they use the line to tip the scales.

 
8 Fumbles.

10 penalties 123 yards.

Weather SHOULD make it lower scoring thus keeping Washington in the game longer.

Freshman QB in his first road game in a loud stadium vs a veteran QB.

Vegas thinks Washington is going to win this game. They are baiting people to pick NU at the low spread (which last time I checked was about 75%).

They are not always right though...2009 Holiday Bowl Point Spread: Arizona -1.5 points

 
i just do not think people take BO's ability to coach up his team for the big games seriously. they will come to play, and we will see a lock down defense. enjoy the masterpiece of dennard, amukamare, and the rest.

 
While I'm optimistic about the game and think a solid Husker victory is certainly possible, I do think there's an excess of kool-aid drinking among the Husker fans right now. (We are the state that invented it, after all.)

If Nebraska gets out of Washington with a W, even if it's close, we should be satisfied. A road game against a decent Pac-10 team with lots of offensive talent, early in the season... all we need from that is the win. Anything beyond that is gravy.

 
Point spreads have very little to do with what the oddsmakers think of any particular team, it's more of a guage of what bettors think. The line starts at a point that oddsmakers think will bring equal action to both sides of a given contest. If the action is weighted to one side, the line moves to entice action on the other side. Vegas does not want to have to be a "fan" of any team. They just want to watch a game and rake in some dough.

 
Vegas betters look at trends, and the trend for Nebraska on the road against a BCS foe hasnt always been good. Throw in that we have a RS Freshman quarterback who is untested, and its at a hostile enviroment.

 
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