Illini as a 6.5 point favorite over Huskers

Hooked on Huskers

Hooked on Huskers

All-Conference
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Hooked on Huskers said:
Illini as a 6.5 point favorite over Huskers
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6.5 was available for maybe 5 hours yesterday before it crossed through 7/7.5.  I wouldn't be shocked to see this get close to 10 by game time although at 10 I expect quite a bit of people to back Nebraska because the bookies wouldn't want to get middled by the people who were able to bet Illinois -5.5 and 6.

 
Hooked on Huskers said:
Illini as a 6.5 point favorite over Huskers. Opening spread, 5.5.

https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/odds

USAToday/Sagarin Predictor Column, Illinois by 7.22 points including Home Advantage

https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2022-2/college-football-team-ratings-2022/

(wiki source)....Great interest to gamblers. Gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as a source of "Power Ratings," traditionally used as a way to determine the spread between two teams
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I stopped by the Horseshoe in CB earlier today and placed $2K on Illinois at -7.5 points. This is the first bet I've placed this season on a Huskers game.

 
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husker rob said:
That means that on a neutral or home field for Illinois,  Nebraska would be dogs by almost 2 tds.

Home team always gets 7 points for home field advantage 
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1. no its not, historically its more around 2.5-3.  More recently, home field advantage is becoming even less of a thing with better travel and more teams having same/standardized resources

2. Its a common misconception that vegas sets a line based off how they think the game will play out.  They set a line with the end goal of making the most amount of money as possible while also covering their exposure.  While the line obviously takes into account the teams at hand, its also set in a way to encourage money from a certain side to pour in and have the line adjust accordingly, all with the end goal of taking our money.  

 
gossamorharpy said:
1. no its not, historically its more around 2.5-3.  More recently, home field advantage is becoming even less of a thing with better travel and more teams having same/standardized resources

2. Its a common misconception that vegas sets a line based off how they think the game will play out.  They set a line with the end goal of making the most amount of money as possible while also covering their exposure.  While the line obviously takes into account the teams at hand, its also set in a way to encourage money from a certain side to pour in and have the line adjust accordingly, all with the end goal of taking our money.  
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Yep.  All Vegas cares about is having equal money on both sides.  Their exposure is zero and they make a lot of money.

So, the line is really set by the gamblers.

Probably 20 years ago, i was in Vegas and wanted to bet on the cubs winning the world series.  I thought if it comes in, I would make big bank.  No.  the bet wouldn't have paid off hardly anything.  I was told by them that it's because everyone comes and puts money on the Cubs to win.  So, the line is down far enough that Vegas really has no exposure.  In reality, they were the biggest long shot that year.

 
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