know your enemy (on paper) - Scarlet Knights

[beorach]

Rutgers has put up offensive passing numbers as sorry as ours to date this season (relative to national averages).  Their offensive rushing numbers are much better.  We've got them beat in terms of total offensive yards, though, and the scoring offense category is a push.  On the defensive side, there's really no contest.  They have posted some good numbers and our best ones are just average.  The turnover margin comparison doesn't give me hope either.  In terms of SOS, they played Morgan State (meaning you take all this stats BS with a bigger grain of salt than usual) but Eastern Michigan is comparable to Northern Illinois and the pundits would tell you Washington > Oregon.

With all that said, though, our ceiling has to be higher than theirs.  That a team's performance has been measurably better than another's is still just history.  If the kids own it and work harder to keep from repeating it, I'm all for this ship getting turned around.

I've edited this post to add the stats I should have had here all along.  If you want to know how I get these, please look at my weekly post of stats and rankings (that has stats in its title).

pass o percentile: 26.28 for them and 25.19 for us

pass d percentile: 69.12 for them and 19.45 for us

rush o percentile: 63.44 for them and 39.54 for us

rush d percentile: 87.84 for them and 59.11 for us

scoring o percentile: 48.26 for them and 50.05 for us

scoring d percentile: 85.69 for them and 20.54 for us

total o percentile: 37.41 for them and 46.28 for us

total d percentile: 76.51 for them and 32.52 for us

turnover margin percentile: 47.94 for them and 33.38 for us

 

[brophog]

A third of their data is against a team that literally can't score.

 

[spurs1990]

A third of their data is against a team that literally can't score.

Hey Morgan State has a field goal this year.

Nope. No they don't. Nevermind

 

[Red_Payne]

I think they're D-line is more geared towards stopping the run rather than pass-rushing; that gives me a little hope that our line may be able to hold their own, and perhaps build some kind of rhythm/acclimate going into the Illini game. I still expect a tough game, though. They might have one of those weird d-coordinators that sends extra defenders to pressure the QB when 3/4 aren't getting there... strange.

 

[beorach]

A third of their data is against a team that literally can't score.

Yeah, I acknowledged that above.  There's just not much data at all when you take out the cupcakes.  Considering most teams have had (not going to say enjoyed) one, that reduces the effect on the relative stats.

 

[BIG ERN]

30-14 loss vs Washington isn't all that bad being they are a top 10 team 

 

[brophog]

Yeah, I acknowledged that above.  There's just not much data at all when you take out the cupcakes.  Considering most teams have had (not going to say enjoyed) one, that reduces the effect on the relative stats.

There's cupcakes and then there is one that was a 6 TD underdog to a team on an 11 game losing streak.

The interesting thing is, Rutgers is so bad that game didn't skew it even more. 

 

[brophog]

I think they're D-line is more geared towards stopping the run rather than pass-rushing; that gives me a little hope that our line may be able to hold their own, and perhaps build some kind of rhythm/acclimate going into the Illini game. 

I wouldnt really say that. They just don't have the talent to really get to the QB. But they are scrappy, rally to the ball well, fight hard to get off blocks, and they're not afraid to roll their safeties down. They have a lot of admirable qualities I wish Nebraska had right now.

 

[TGHusker]

My thoughts from the related Rutger's media prediction thread:

Some things to consider why or how this could be an upset in the making:

1. Jerry Kill as OC at Rutgers.  While he may not know MR's team, he knows Nebraska, respects Nebraska and would love nothing more to game plan a win against his old Big 10 rival once again.

2. No huddle - spread.  We've done poor in the past against no huddle & against the spread in particular.  It may be worse wt the new D still in the works and no pass rush.

3.  Motivation:  NU deflated and has injury issues after NIU.  Rutgers - a rare opportunity to beat NU and to win at NU would be frosting on the cake (bringing more calls for Frost - pun intended).

4.  Coach Kill as OC beats MR as HC in motivation and game planning.   

While I still say NU wins ugly, I would not be surprised by the opposite result due to the the above. 

 

[VectorVictor]

My thoughts from the related Rutger's media prediction thread:

Some things to consider why or how this could be an upset in the making:

1. Jerry Kill as OC at Rutgers.  While he may not know MR's team, he knows Nebraska, respects Nebraska and would love nothing more to game plan a win against his old Big 10 rival once again.

2. No huddle - spread.  We've done poor in the past against no huddle & against the spread in particular.  It may be worse wt the new D still in the works and no pass rush.

3.  Motivation:  NU deflated and has injury issues after NIU.  Rutgers - a rare opportunity to beat NU and to win at NU would be frosting on the cake (bringing more calls for Frost - pun intended).

4.  Coach Kill as OC beats MR as HC in motivation and game planning.   

While I still say NU wins ugly, I would not be surprised by the opposite result due to the the above. 

Good points TGHusker. Folks sleep on Kill at their own peril...

...and I still remember when I was laughed at for suggesting that Kill would be successful at Minny and would be a team to watch out for. The guy is a great coach and, from most accounts, a great person to be around and play for. Hell, I'd love to have him on our staff, to be honest.

 

[beorach]

There's cupcakes and then there is one that was a 6 TD underdog to a team on an 11 game losing streak.

The interesting thing is, Rutgers is so bad that game didn't skew it even more. 

That's just another facet of relativity.  How Rutgers compares to Morgan State might be similar to how Miami compares to Bethune-Cookman.  SOS is not something that's easily adjusted for but Morgan State is the first team I mentioned in my original post when touching on it.

 

[TGHusker]

^^^ VV I agree - Kill as OC  - wouldn't want him as HC with the health issues.  But he did  a great job at Minny and may be a good assistant/mentor to a younger HC like Frost for example

 

[brophog]

^^^ VV I agree - Kill as OC  - wouldn't want him as HC with the health issues.  But he did  a great job at Minny and may be a good assistant/mentor to a younger HC like Frost for example

He may not make it much longer as OC. I'm cheering for the guy, but this job is very stressful. Long hours, little sleep. Under normal people conditions he's managed his condition, but these aren't normal conditions.