np_husker
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Steven M. Sipple: Don't go, Lucky
Friday, Dec 28, 2007 - 12:24:48 am CST
Nobody asked for my counsel — for obvious reasons — but that’s never stopped me before.
So, here goes:
Marlon Lucky ought to return to Nebraska for his senior season. It seems a no-brainer. But we hear he’s wrestling with the decision.
In some ways, it’s a tricky and somewhat intriguing situation.
Lucky, a 6-foot, 210-pound multi-purpose running back, obviously is a uniquely gifted athlete. He came on strong late this season. But is he physically, mentally and emotionally ready for the rigors and hard-core competition of the NFL? It says here he could use another year of maturation.
Lucky has discussed the NFL matter with new Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini. The deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft is Jan. 15.
Here’s hoping Lucky is getting good advice (from someone other than a local newspaper hack), for Lucky might be tempted to take the big leap to riches if he assigns too much weight to a 2007 senior class of running backs that is extremely weak. In fact, there might not be an NFL first-round pick in the bunch.
However, “The junior class is maybe one of the best I’ve ever seen, and you’re going to see a lot of those guys (declare) for the draft,” said Scott Wright of nfldraftcountdown.com.
Darren McFadden and Felix Jones of Arkansas, Rashard Mendenhall of Illinois and Jonathan Stewart of Oregon — they represent the top tier of junior running backs, according to Wright.
The second tier of juniors also has big-time talent in Steve Slaton of West Virginia, Ray Rice of Rutgers, James Davis of Clemson and Jamaal Charles of Texas, to name a few.
Wright expects most of the top-shelf junior running backs to declare for the draft to take advantage of the weak senior crop. That could leave Lucky as one of the nation’s top senior running backs next season — one excellent reason for him to stay put.
There are other reasons.
On a final list of running backs available for this year’s draft, Lucky probably would possess the prowess to crack the top 10, Wright said. However, cracking the top 10 doesn’t necessarily ensure a high draft selection. In fact, running backs situated near the bottom of the top 10 at their position can slide all the way to the fifth or sixth round, or lower.
“It’s a little bit of a shaky proposition for running backs,” Wright said. “They always tend to drop on draft day.”
Regarding Lucky, Wright said: “I’d say at this point I’d call him, at best, a middle-round pick. Maybe fourth or fifth round.”
So, what will Lucky do? My guess is he’s being advised to take his time with his decision — to wait to see how many other top juniors declare for the draft. If only a few declare, perhaps Lucky will make the jump.
It would be a perilous leap.
“If he comes out (and declares) with a flood of juniors, he could be one of those guys on draft day who’s like, ‘Oh, my gosh, what did I just do? I’m being taken in the sixth round,’” said draft guru Russ Lande of GMjr.com.
Lucky might make an 11th-hour decision in the manner of ex-Husker running back Brandon Jackson. Jackson’s decision last winter paid off handsomely; he was a second-round pick by Green Bay. Is Lucky as draftable as Jackson?
Better question: Is Jackson’s second-round selection (and instant-millionaire status) affecting Lucky’s decision?
Dunno for certain, but Lucky obviously is valuable to the 2008 Nebraska team. His return could be worth a win or two, at least.
It should be noted Lucky thoroughly enjoyed working in the same backfield as Joe Ganz. Don’t underestimate the Ganz factor in all of this.
And don’t underestimate the Pelini factor. Those close to Lucky would be wise to point out Pelini’s nine-year tenure in the NFL. Pelini knows what it takes to excel in the big show.
One other thing for Lucky to consider: If he declares for the draft, his stock would be determined in large part by his performance at the NFL Scouting Combine in February.
“He’d better be real confident in his ability to impress people at the combine,” Wright said. “Because that would be his last chance and really the only way he’s going to separate himself from other guys. Because, starting out, he’d be toward the back end of the pack — he wouldn’t be starting out as one of the top guys in the second tier.“
If you’re a Nebraska fan and count on Lucky’s return, you might worry what type of advice he’s receiving from agents.
“A lot of agents act like they have real great contacts in the NFL, but they don’t,” Lande said.
Of Lucky, Lande said: “He looks like a good back. But he doesn’t impress me as a guy who’s going to jump up and knock some of the top guys out of the pecking order.”
In other words, it seems clear Lucky should return to Nebraska, at least that’s my stance — not that anybody asked.
Friday, Dec 28, 2007 - 12:24:48 am CST
Nobody asked for my counsel — for obvious reasons — but that’s never stopped me before.
So, here goes:
Marlon Lucky ought to return to Nebraska for his senior season. It seems a no-brainer. But we hear he’s wrestling with the decision.
In some ways, it’s a tricky and somewhat intriguing situation.
Lucky, a 6-foot, 210-pound multi-purpose running back, obviously is a uniquely gifted athlete. He came on strong late this season. But is he physically, mentally and emotionally ready for the rigors and hard-core competition of the NFL? It says here he could use another year of maturation.
Lucky has discussed the NFL matter with new Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini. The deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft is Jan. 15.
Here’s hoping Lucky is getting good advice (from someone other than a local newspaper hack), for Lucky might be tempted to take the big leap to riches if he assigns too much weight to a 2007 senior class of running backs that is extremely weak. In fact, there might not be an NFL first-round pick in the bunch.
However, “The junior class is maybe one of the best I’ve ever seen, and you’re going to see a lot of those guys (declare) for the draft,” said Scott Wright of nfldraftcountdown.com.
Darren McFadden and Felix Jones of Arkansas, Rashard Mendenhall of Illinois and Jonathan Stewart of Oregon — they represent the top tier of junior running backs, according to Wright.
The second tier of juniors also has big-time talent in Steve Slaton of West Virginia, Ray Rice of Rutgers, James Davis of Clemson and Jamaal Charles of Texas, to name a few.
Wright expects most of the top-shelf junior running backs to declare for the draft to take advantage of the weak senior crop. That could leave Lucky as one of the nation’s top senior running backs next season — one excellent reason for him to stay put.
There are other reasons.
On a final list of running backs available for this year’s draft, Lucky probably would possess the prowess to crack the top 10, Wright said. However, cracking the top 10 doesn’t necessarily ensure a high draft selection. In fact, running backs situated near the bottom of the top 10 at their position can slide all the way to the fifth or sixth round, or lower.
“It’s a little bit of a shaky proposition for running backs,” Wright said. “They always tend to drop on draft day.”
Regarding Lucky, Wright said: “I’d say at this point I’d call him, at best, a middle-round pick. Maybe fourth or fifth round.”
So, what will Lucky do? My guess is he’s being advised to take his time with his decision — to wait to see how many other top juniors declare for the draft. If only a few declare, perhaps Lucky will make the jump.
It would be a perilous leap.
“If he comes out (and declares) with a flood of juniors, he could be one of those guys on draft day who’s like, ‘Oh, my gosh, what did I just do? I’m being taken in the sixth round,’” said draft guru Russ Lande of GMjr.com.
Lucky might make an 11th-hour decision in the manner of ex-Husker running back Brandon Jackson. Jackson’s decision last winter paid off handsomely; he was a second-round pick by Green Bay. Is Lucky as draftable as Jackson?
Better question: Is Jackson’s second-round selection (and instant-millionaire status) affecting Lucky’s decision?
Dunno for certain, but Lucky obviously is valuable to the 2008 Nebraska team. His return could be worth a win or two, at least.
It should be noted Lucky thoroughly enjoyed working in the same backfield as Joe Ganz. Don’t underestimate the Ganz factor in all of this.
And don’t underestimate the Pelini factor. Those close to Lucky would be wise to point out Pelini’s nine-year tenure in the NFL. Pelini knows what it takes to excel in the big show.
One other thing for Lucky to consider: If he declares for the draft, his stock would be determined in large part by his performance at the NFL Scouting Combine in February.
“He’d better be real confident in his ability to impress people at the combine,” Wright said. “Because that would be his last chance and really the only way he’s going to separate himself from other guys. Because, starting out, he’d be toward the back end of the pack — he wouldn’t be starting out as one of the top guys in the second tier.“
If you’re a Nebraska fan and count on Lucky’s return, you might worry what type of advice he’s receiving from agents.
“A lot of agents act like they have real great contacts in the NFL, but they don’t,” Lande said.
Of Lucky, Lande said: “He looks like a good back. But he doesn’t impress me as a guy who’s going to jump up and knock some of the top guys out of the pecking order.”
In other words, it seems clear Lucky should return to Nebraska, at least that’s my stance — not that anybody asked.
