McKewon: Mike Riley's 3-5 team according to analytics? A little like other recent Husker teams

[Mavric]

Just use the last two seasons and this year. No need to go all the way back to when we still had Callahan recruits.

S&P

2015 47

2014 31

2013 60

2013-2014 average 45.5

It's nice that you use average; sorta helps when you have a guy who's had 7 years at a program compared to a guy who's only had not even one.

For the FEI, Nebraska's been as low as 46th and 59th, and 60th for the S&P. So basically, Nebraska's had teams who statistically have been worse than the one they have now, and just as the potential is there for Nebraska to worsen in these categories over the next few years, so is the potential for Nebraska to improve in these areas.

OK. So we want to use an average if we can cherry-pick a couple years to make Riley look better but we don't want to us an average because Riley has only had one year. Basically we don't want to use stats if they don't tell the story we like.

I did the average above. So let's do one year two different ways. Pelini's first year compared to Riley's first year so we can see what both guys did in their first year and last year compared to this year as that has the most similar players and almost the exact same schedule.

FEI: 2008 - 59; 2015 - 32

S&P: 2008 - 17; 2015 - 47

FPI: 2008 - 32; 2015 - 44

Sagarin: 2008 - 23; 2015 - 46

FEI: 2014 - 29; 2015 - 32

S&P: 2014 - 31; 2015 - 47

FPI: 2014 - 28; 2015 - 44

Sagarin: 2014 - 29; 2015 - 46

So again the FEI sees this year's team in a more positive light than all the others, by a significant margin. But even at that, the FEI for 2008 vs. 2015 is the only one that's better. The FEI for 2014 vs. 2015 is similar. All the other metrics show that we're significantly worse this year.

 

[gdubs4nu]

1. Yes, Ohio State runs a pro style scheme. Single back set. Fairly balanced between the pass and run. 4-3 base man coverage defense.

It's literally a power run spread option system.

Yep. Looks like it. LOL

 

[gdubs4nu]

I'll agree that they do run a number of spread option, but to say that's their entire scheme is false. Let's agree to say they're multiple, mostly because they can be.

 

[khaake]

Geez, I honestly don't understand the logic of those calling for this staff's head. Has it been a disappointing year? Absolutely. Yes. But be realistic about the situation. The previous staff was let go in an extremely toxic environment where "us against the world" was cultivated. The new staff brought with them a system that they want to run, a system different than the previous staff's, a system that is new to most of those on the team. Given the situation, I don't see that there was any way for any other possible staff to have had much better results. Give them a break and let it play out.

Like it or not, the Nebraska program has unfortunately been trending towards mediocrity for quite some time, and it was poisoned on top of it. It will take time to right the ship. Are Riley & company the ones to do so? Maybe they are, maybe they're not, but we as fans should be honest about the situation and give them the time and space to do so.

 

[gdubs4nu]

The scheme is completely different and is necessary to compete with the teams currently winning championships. Look at the teams in the B1G that run the same pro-style scheme.

Wisconsin power run

Michigan power run

Michigan State

Iowa

Ohio State spread

Illinois spread

Penn State

Rutgers

Those all look like teams doing well. Look at the nationally recognized programs doing the same.

USC

UCLA spread

Alabama

Florida

Oklahoma air raid

Georgia

Florida State

Clemson spread

Like half of these teams don't run a "pro style" like us.

lol

We don't run the spread? We don't run an air raid? There is more than a little bit of both in our current scheme.

I think you're confusing pro-style with pro-set. Pro-style is a balance of run to pass. Utilizes the TE. Runs both single back sets and power I or offset I use of the fullback. Using multiple formations and motions. Maximizing multiple targets within the same formation and motion set.

 

[GBRedneck]

I'm going to try brevity to see if it works better. Here goes.

I doubt many fans are overly gloomy about the staff because of the 3-5 record. Not sure but I doubt it.

HAHAHA! Try reading facebook if you want an idea of what the average fan thinks. Average fans don't spend a lot of time on Husker message boards.

I would love to see one of the local rags do a poll.

 

[zoogs]

I don't think the "angry facebook group" is a representation of the average Husker fan either.

Sam McKewon made a great point a few weeks ago. Those 90,000 fans cheering like crazy? They adore Nebraska (his words). Yeah, some of them are the same ones that badmouth the program in earshot of recruits on the sideline, and some of them are the people who make angry posts on facebook groups, message boards, blogs, call into radio hosts, etc. But the much greater part of the cheering thousands, probably don't even think to do any of those things.

Anger always has outsize representation.

 

[huskerfan74]

I'm going to try brevity to see if it works better. Here goes.

I doubt many fans are overly gloomy about the staff because of the 3-5 record. Not sure but I doubt it.[/size]

And for brevity, YOU ARE VERY WRONG!

 

[walksalone]

Well, except they're 3-5...

 

[Saunders]

The scheme is completely different and is necessary to compete with the teams currently winning championships. Look at the teams in the B1G that run the same pro-style scheme.

Wisconsin power run

Michigan power run

Michigan State

Iowa

Ohio State spread

Illinois spread

Penn State

Rutgers

Those all look like teams doing well. Look at the nationally recognized programs doing the same.

USC

UCLA spread

Alabama

Florida

Oklahoma air raid

Georgia

Florida State

Clemson spread

Like half of these teams don't run a "pro style" like us.

lol

We don't run the spread? We don't run an air raid? There is more than a little bit of both in our current scheme.

I think you're confusing pro-style with pro-set. Pro-style is a balance of run to pass. Utilizes the TE. Runs both single back sets and power I or offset I use of the fullback. Using multiple formations and motions. Maximizing multiple targets within the same formation and motion set.

No, not really.

 

[huskerfan92]

I wonder what the analytics say now.

 

[alexhortdog95]

Here's some analytics you can't ignore...

Mike Riley is a lot of things, but a disciplinarian is not one of them. Here is where his team has ranked in penalties throughout his
Mike Riley's Team Penalty rankings from 2003 to present by year::

Oregon State Penalties Rankings by year

2003 - 115th
2004 - 105th
2005 - 116th
2006 - 73rd
2007 - 78th
2008 - 89th
2009 - 112th
2010 - 69th
2011 - 109th
2012 - 80th
2013 - 92nd
2014 - 122nd

Nebraska:
2015 - 114th

Going from one extreme to another extreme is just as bad. Most posters here know that I never was a Riley guy. I'm a David Shaw fella.

That being said - there's going to be some really good coaches filling positions this year that are open. A few examples of hot coaches right now:

Justin Fuente at Memphis (won 7 games in his first two seasons, since he's 17-3)

Tom Herman at Houston (still on the fence about Herman, but he's 7-0 as a head coach)

Matt Rhule at Temple (still on the fence about Temple coaches, see Al Golden)

And the "Nice Guy" thing? Turn over to CBS right now and look at what happens to "nice guys" Mark Richt, one of the nicest guys in college football, is getting pounded 20-0 by a first year head coach right now.