NU vs. MN by the numbers

beorach

beorach

Special Teams Player
I'm only taking data from games between conference opponents so independents are not represented.  That means a B1G's team rankings are based on games against other B1G teams only.  For nine categories, I'm averaging the percentile ratings for all the stats I could make sense of (to figure into a spread calculation) from within those categories for all the teams.  I average all those averages for the overall rating, all the defensive ones for the defense, etc.  For Nebraska and our beloved Corn's next opponent, I'm sharing all the figures.  Enjoy or don't.  I started doing this to help me gamble and some years it has...

NU vs. MN

Passing Defense

completions allowed per game: 82 (NU) vs. 21 (MN)

completion percentage allowed: 67 to 73

yards per attempt allowed: 83 to 88

touchdowns per game allowed: 65 to 76

qb rating allowed: 74 to 86

yards per game allowed: 89 to 58

Passing Offense

completions per game: 24 to 24

completion percentage: 48 to 96

yards per attempt: 46 to 100

touchdowns per game: 26 to 92

qb rating: 39 to 100

yards per game: 26 to 67

Rushing Defense

yards per game allowed: 12 to 79

touchdowns per game allowed: 15 to 71

yards per carry allowed: 14 to 67

Rushing Offense

yards per game: 63 to 71

touchdowns per game: 53 to 47

yards per carry: 78 to 74

Scoring Defense

touchdowns per game allowed: 38 to 61

points per game allowed: 36 to 63

Scoring Offense

touchdowns per game: 30 to 80

points per game: 26 to 82

Total Defense

yards per play allowed: 54 to 83

yards per game allowed: 55 to 76

plays per game allowed: 53 to 34

Total Offense:

yards per play: 45 to 94

yards per game: 52 to 80

plays per game: 63 to 17

Turnover Margin

fumbles gained per game: 16 to 16

interceptions gained per game: 37 to 77

turnovers gained per game: 19 to 47

fumbles lost per game: 11 to 59

interceptions lost per game: 44 to 69

turnovers lost per game: 22 to 69

turnover margin per game: 14 to 61

 
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Nebfanatic said:
Curious @beorach could you do the percentiles for TFLs for and against as well as sacks? 
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Our sack yards figure puts us at the 63rd percentile.

Our sacks per game figure puts us at the 36th percentile.

Our TFL yards figure puts us at the 79th percentile.

Our TFL per game figure puts us at the 56th percentile.

 
beorach said:
Our sack yards figure puts us at the 63rd percentile.

Our sacks per game figure puts us at the 36th percentile.

Our TFL yards figure puts us at the 79th percentile.

Our TFL per game figure puts us at the 56th percentile.
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So actually I have it wrong with the run defense. A higher number is better in this post correct?

 
Gaa, I found an error in at least a couple of the spreadsheets so I'll be updating in the near future.

The big takeaway for these numbers is the average number of conference games played by FBS teams so far this season is only 2.

 
WyoHusker56 said:
I believe that's right. So, if you're in the 56th percentile you're better than 56% of the teams in that case I think.
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Right so the run numbers aren't pretty at all. Really not pretty across the board, though I think this is an important thing to remember

beorach said:
The big takeaway for these numbers is the average number of conference games played by FBS teams so far this season is only 2.
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We have played 3 games so that makes a slight difference.

Edit: just saw the updated numbers...run defense is looking good! Lol pass defense though, pretty rough right now.

 
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WyoHusker56 said:
I believe that's right. So, if you're in the 56th percentile you're better than 56% of the teams in that case I think.
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You guys have it right.  100th percentile is the best you can get.  I had some z-scores (which I convert to percentiles) calculated wrong in a bunch of cells when I first posted for whatever reason so the numbers are updated now (like 12:20 on Tuesday the 8th).  Sorry for the confusion.

GBR!

 
Nebfanatic said:
We have played 3 games so that makes a slight difference.
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I try to always normalize figures by dividing by the number of games (which you can see in what I listed because those are all the stats I'm tracking).  The strength of schedule difference is what I always struggle with in terms of how to adjust stats/spreads.  Minnesota has played Illinois and Purdue.  I think Purdue having played two P5 teams from outside the B1G to open its season likely meant the Gophers didn't get them at full strength either but didn't watch any of their game, to be fair...

p.s. - Numbers in the rushing defense category obviously have a lot to do with how poor some of the numbers are in the passing defense category.

 
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beorach said:
p.s. - Numbers in the rushing defense category obviously have a lot to do with how poor some of the numbers are in the passing defense category.
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So because teams can't run it on us they have to pass more often. You'd still like to see better performance in categories such as yards per attempt and QB rating if volume is being affected because your run defense is really good.

 
Nebfanatic said:
So because teams can't run it on us they have to pass more often. You'd still like to see better performance in categories such as yards per attempt and QB rating if volume is being affected because your run defense is really good.
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Or the numbers in the RD category are inflated because teams just find it easier and more advantageous to pass?  I'm not saying I have it figured out by any means but there's definitely some interdependence if that's a word...  These answers are just easier to come by and understand than a lot of things I see online.

 
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