One Loss Team Comparison

Mavric

Mavric

Yoda
Staff member
An admittedly simplistic look at the log jam of one loss teams and what they've done so far this year. I should wait for the official committee Top 25 on Tuesday but oh well. Each team listed with who they lost to and any current AP-voted teams they've beaten (33 teams currently receiving votes). I've listed them in the order I think makes sense based on this listing - basically assuming wins over teams not receiving votes are equal.

Team A - Lost to #1; Beat #11, #16
Team B - Lost to #2; Beat #29
Team C - Lost to #16; Beat #3
Team D - Lost to #7; Beat #20
Team E - Lost to #14; Beat #8, #25
Team F - Lost to #5; Beat #17
Team G - Lost to #4; Beat #19
Team H - Lost to #20; Beat #10
Team I - Lost to #27; Beat #5
Team J - Lost to #12; Beat #19, #33
Team K - Lost to #8; Beat none
Team L - Lost to #25; Beat #27, #29
Team M - Lost to unranked; Beat #22, #31
Team N - Lost to unranked; Beat #25, #27
Team O - Lost to unranked; Beat none
Team P - Lost unranked; Beat none
Team Q - Lost to unranked; Beat none

A - Auburn - Currently #4
B - Notre Dame - #6
C - Mississippi - #7
D - Alabama - #3
E - Oregon - #5
F - Michigan State - #8
G - Kansas State - #11
H - Baylor - #12
I - Arizona - #14
J - TCU - #10
K - Nebraska - #17
L - Arizona State - #15
M - Georgia - #9
N - Utah - #18
O - Ohio State - #13
P - Duke - #24
Q - East Carolina - #21
 
According to this, I think the polls have done a pretty good job of ranking teams. The 1 loss teams that haven't beat anybody (Nebraska, Duke, etc.) are not ranked as high due to no quality wins. 1 loss teams with quality wins (Ole Miss, Oregon, Auburn) have earned their ranking with some quality wins.

While it's good for Nebraska to pad the win totals in the Big 10 West division, the lack of quality teams might hurt us year in and year out as far as rankings and SOS is concerned. It'll be interesting to see how SOS plays a roll in the committee's rankings as we move forward.

 
If strength of schedule is not the main point, it really means nothing. I hate the SEC as much as anyone, but they have the best players, as proven by the past few years of NFL drafts. That is the reason they get the unconditional love. Getting through the West division of the SEC is far tougher than getting through the West of the Big10. And as much as I hate to say it, they get through with one loss, they deserve to be in the hunt. Notre Dame gets through their schedule with one loss and they will be in is my guess.

Our schedule, as I have stated over and over will keep us out if the ones expected to win, win.

I think right now the only chance of a Big 10 team getting in, is if, Michigan State beats both Ohio State and Nebraska. Neither have beaten anyone.

I think we are going to have to change our scheduling to make the playoffs in the future. The west is historically weak, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan all will play each other every year. We have to hope they beat each other up. McNeese state type of games are going to kill us in the future. They are no win scenarios no matter the outcome.

 
Mavric said:
An admittedly simplistic look at the log jam of one loss teams and what they've done so far this year. I should wait for the official committee Top 25 on Tuesday but oh well. Each team listed with who they lost to and any current AP-voted teams they've beaten (33 teams currently receiving votes). I've listed them in the order I think makes sense based on this listing - basically assuming wins over teams not receiving votes are equal.

Team A - Lost to #1; Beat #11, #16

Team B - Lost to #2; Beat #29

Team C - Lost to #16; Beat #3

Team D - Lost to #7; Beat #20

Team E - Lost to #14; Beat #8, #25

Team F - Lost to #5; Beat #17

Team G - Lost to #4; Beat #19

Team H - Lost to #20; Beat #10

Team I - Lost to #27; Beat #5

Team J - Lost to #12; Beat #19, #33

Team K - Lost to #8; Beat none

Team L - Lost to #25; Beat #27, #29

Team M - Lost to unranked; Beat #22, #31

Team N - Lost to unranked; Beat #25, #27

Team O - Lost to unranked; Beat none

Team P - Lost unranked; Beat none

Team Q - Lost to unranked; Beat none

A - Auburn - Currently #4

B - Notre Dame - #6

C - Mississippi - #7

D - Alabama - #3

E - Oregon - #5

F - Michigan State - #8

G - Kansas State - #11

H - Baylor - #12

I - Arizona - #14

J - TCU - #10

K - Nebraska - #17

L - Arizona State - #15

M - Georgia - #9

N - Utah - #18

O - Ohio State - #13

P - Duke - #24

Q - East Carolina - #21
Click to expand...

So if you rank the teams by quality losses first and by quality wins second, it should go like this (ish):

A (#4)

F (#8)

G (#11)

B (#6)

D (#3)

K (#17)

C (#7)

E (#5)

J (#10)

I (#14)

H (#12)

L (#15)

M (#9)

N (#18)

O (#13)

P (#24)

Q (#21)

If you rank them by quality wins first and then quality losses second, it should go like this (ish):

C (#7)

I (#14)

A (#4)

E (#5)

F (#8)

H (#12)

J (#10)

G (#11)

D (#3)

B (#6)

L (#15)

M (#9)

N (#18)

K (#17)

O (#13)

P (#24)

Q (#21)

Assuming any kind of reliability with the polls, the only semi-solid conclusions that can be made are that Auburn, Bama and Notre Dame deserve their spots high up, Georgia is seriously overranked, and Duke and East Carolina deserve their lower spots.

 
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I think reguardless if you have a big 10 west team who plays complete games and wins them all with no close ones and wins the big 10 championship. Theres no way they could deny that.

 
Mavric said:
Team D - Lost to #7; Beat #20

Team F - Lost to #5; Beat #17

Team G - Lost to #4; Beat #19

Team J - Lost to #12; Beat #19, #33

Team K - Lost to #8; Beat none



D - Alabama - #3

F - Michigan State - #8

G - Kansas State - #11

J - TCU - #10

K - Nebraska - #17
Click to expand...

These five have had *fairly* similar seasons so far, based only on the ranked teams beaten/lost to. Yet the ranking of these five teams varies widely. I guess its due to the other five or six wins on their schedule. For example, this past weekend Bama gets plenty of credit for beating a 3-4 Tennessee while we get little credit for beating 5-2 Rutgers. The thing is, I'll bet Rutgers vs Tenn would be a pretty tight game.

*fairly* similar seasons: Sure, no ranked win for us. But Rutgers was "ranked" 34th before we beat them, and Miami was probly a bit higher. LINK

 
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The whole problem with strength of schedule and which teams are ranked is the so totally flawed AP poll. Just look at this website - http://collegepolltracker.com - and for fun, let's specifically look at Doug Doughty from the Roanoke Times in Virginia. This joker has voted Nebraska generally where it should be, but in the last three weeks, put as #22, then #11 and now #16.

It's voting like this that makes absolutely no sense. Meanwhile, Drew Sharp has hasn't rated Nebraska all year long.

These journalists, who probably don't even watch any games, are the ones dictating which teams have the best SOS? Give me a break.

I really, really, really hope the selection committee doesn't even look at the AP poll....ever. Kudos to whoever put that website together -- spend some time looking it over, and you'll really quickly see how much of a pile of crap "the system" is.

 
The problem with the polls is the preseason through week 4 (or so) rankings, they skew things so badly that it's tough for teams to recover from perception or easy to benefit from perception (in the case of the SEC)

I think each AP voter should be required to write up a small rationalization of their picks each week, that would stop these guys from randomly assigning numbers to teams like some of these guys trend to do!

 
dave said:
The whole problem with strength of schedule and which teams are ranked is the so totally flawed AP poll. Just look at this website - http://collegepolltracker.com - and for fun, let's specifically look at Doug Doughty from the Roanoke Times in Virginia. This joker has voted Nebraska generally where it should be, but in the last three weeks, put as #22, then #11 and now #16.

It's voting like this that makes absolutely no sense. Meanwhile, Drew Sharp has hasn't rated Nebraska all year long.

These journalists, who probably don't even watch any games, are the ones dictating which teams have the best SOS? Give me a break.

I really, really, really hope the selection committee doesn't even look at the AP poll....ever. Kudos to whoever put that website together -- spend some time looking it over, and you'll really quickly see how much of a pile of crap "the system" is.
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Drew Sharp is a moron. I don't know why the AP gives him a vote when his twitter bio has "The Big Ten Sucks". That's not even trying to have voters without a bias. And he is from Detroit, so not only do we have bias against the Big 10, but we lose a spot for a regional Big 10 supporter. I wonder if it was always this bad when the AP was actually used in the BCS and before that considered an ultimate source for the mythical national championship, or if once the AP dropped out of the BCS system that some writers decided to have some "fun" with it.

 
In the past, I might have got caught up in such analysis. I think it is far too early to be concerned. If Nebraska is to finish with one loss travelling to a Top Ten team, I believe they will be in the Playoff. We will have beaten Wisconsin, who is likely to be ranked in two weeks, a highly ranked MSU or tOSU, and won the Big Ten. Same can be said for MSU.

 
Dr. Strangelove said:
According to this, I think the polls have done a pretty good job of ranking teams. The 1 loss teams that haven't beat anybody (Nebraska, Duke, etc.) are not ranked as high due to no quality wins. 1 loss teams with quality wins (Ole Miss, Oregon, Auburn) have earned their ranking with some quality wins.

While it's good for Nebraska to pad the win totals in the Big 10 West division, the lack of quality teams might hurt us year in and year out as far as rankings and SOS is concerned. It'll be interesting to see how SOS plays a roll in the committee's rankings as we move forward.
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The only one that really makes me mad is ASU didn't ucla break it off in them
 
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We cant control the rank of our opponents. I wish we could play Iowa or Northwestern in week 1 or two then schedule a patsy late in the year like the SEC does. Even scheduling a Kansas or Iowa State would look better than FAU. That would give us two power 5 teams OOC with the one big game we schedule every year. Even if FAU ended up being better than the patsy OOC team we scheduled we would get more kudos for the brand name of a KU or ISU.

Next year, playing BYU at home AND Miami on the road is a big boost. Plus our hard conference games should all be at home save for Minnesota. Next years schedule would be a great SOS to go unscathed with.

 
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Dr. Strangelove said:
According to this, I think the polls have done a pretty good job of ranking teams. The 1 loss teams that haven't beat anybody (Nebraska, Duke, etc.) are not ranked as high due to no quality wins. 1 loss teams with quality wins (Ole Miss, Oregon, Auburn) have earned their ranking with some quality wins.

While it's good for Nebraska to pad the win totals in the Big 10 West division, the lack of quality teams might hurt us year in and year out as far as rankings and SOS is concerned. It'll be interesting to see how SOS plays a roll in the committee's rankings as we move forward.
Click to expand...
The problem is the higher up teams that have "quality wins" only have "quality wins" because the SEC is OVERHYPED and every team is pertty near ranked!

 
It is unlikely the SEC champion will be undefeated. I think Notre Dame is the one to worry about that could knock a one-loss Big Ten or Big XII champion out.

 
The SEC gets the benefit of the doubt early on which is why those beat a couple ranked teams stack up so high. Its definitely helpful down the stretch to make arguments why a 2-3 loss LSU should be ranked so highly at years end. " Well they beat like 4 ranked teams". Even though 3 od them finish unranked. Happens yearly.

Meanwhile we could beat several good teams that finish ranked but get no early love so it looks like we beat a buncha nobodies. Although we probably will end up having beaten a bunch of bad teams this year unfortunately.

 
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