OWH: Big Plays Hurting Blackshirts

Mavric

Mavric

Yoda
Staff member
The Huskers haven't been facing offenses with enhanced skill or overwhelming talent -- yet they've still given up 28 plays of 30-plus yards so far this season (only four teams have allowed more).

Twenty-eight! That's an average of three plays of 30 yards or more allowed in every game. That's one every 23 snaps.

...

Just take a look at the distinct difference between Nebraska opponent drives that featured a play of 30 yards or more and those that did not...

No 30-plus yard play: Opponents have scored 25.5 percent of the time, at a rate of 1.4 points per possession. It's 132 total points on 94 drives.

With a 30-plus yard play: They've scored 74.1 percent of the time, at a rate of 4.4 points per possession. That's 119 points on 27 drives.

Even more disheartening for Nebraska? This big-chunk production has come from offenses that would otherwise struggle to move the football consistently. Here's where NU's opponents rank...

BYU: 6.2 yards per play, 32nd nationally

So Alabama: 5.5, T-78th

Miami: 5.8, T-48th

So Miss: 6.8, T-13th

Illinois: 4.7, 115th

Wisconsin: 5.7, 62nd

Minnesota: 5.2, 101st

Northwestern: 4.6, 121th

Purdue: 4.9, 110th
Click to expand...
OWH

 
Improving Nebraska's defense begins with eliminating big plays.

The Huskers haven't been facing offenses with enhanced skill or overwhelming talent — yet they've still given up 28 plays of 30-plus yards so far this season (only four teams have allowed more).

Twenty-eight! That's an average of three plays (of 30 yards or more) allowed in every game. That's one every 23 snaps.
Click to expand...
No 30-plus yard play: Opponents have scored 25.5 percent of the time, at a rate of 1.4 points per possession. It's 132 total points on 94 drives.

[SIZE=15.0015px]With a 30-plus yard play:[/SIZE] They've scored 74.1 percent of the time, at a rate of 4.4 points per possession. That's 119 points on 27 drives.
Click to expand...
>> UTEP, Eastern Michigan, SMU and New Mexico State are the only four teams that have allowed more plays of 30-plus yards than Nebraska this year. They have a combined record 6-27.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
The big plays obviously hurt but they're not the only problem. We're still near the bottom at giving up every kind of play. Slightly better than we were earlier in the year but that's not saying much.

Huskers allowing plays of...

10+ Yards - #104; Huskers: 133, Last: 175, Median: 112

20+ Yards - #118; Huskers: 55; Last: 61; Median: 36

30+ Yards - #123; Huskers: 28; Last: 31; Median: 16

40+ Yards - #113; Huskers: 14; Last: 19; Median: 8

50+ Yards - #114; Huskers: 9; Last: 14; Median: 4

60+ Yards - #39; Huskers 2; Last: 8; Median: 2

70+ Yards - #41; Huskers: 1; Last: 5; Median: 1

80+ Yards - #91; Huskers: 1; Last: 3; Median: 0

 
Even more disheartening for Nebraska? This big-chunk production has come from offenses that would otherwise struggle to move the football consistently. Here's where NU's opponents rank.

[SIZE=15.0015px]BYU:[/SIZE] 6.2 yards per play, 32nd nationally
[SIZE=15.0015px]South Alabama:[/SIZE] 5.5, T-78th
[SIZE=15.0015px]Miami:[/SIZE] 5.8, T-48th
[SIZE=15.0015px]Southern Miss:[/SIZE] 6.8, T-13th
[SIZE=15.0015px]Illinois:[/SIZE] 4.7, 115th
[SIZE=15.0015px]Wisconsin:[/SIZE] 5.7, 62nd
[SIZE=15.0015px]Minnesota:[/SIZE] 5.2, 101st
[SIZE=15.0015px]Northwestern:[/SIZE] 4.6, 121st
[SIZE=15.0015px]Purdue:[/SIZE] 4.9, 110th
Click to expand...
This statistic was most troubling to me. Other than Southern Alabama and Wisconsin, every team we have played has averaged more yards per play against us than the average.

[SIZE=15.0015px]BYU:[/SIZE] 7.1 yards per play.
[SIZE=15.0015px]South Alabama:[/SIZE] 4.81 yards per play.
[SIZE=15.0015px]Miami:[/SIZE] 6.81 yards per play.
[SIZE=15.0015px]Southern Miss:[/SIZE] 7.05 yards per play.
[SIZE=15.0015px]Illinois:[/SIZE] 4.96 yards per play.
[SIZE=15.0015px]Wisconsin:[/SIZE] 5.58 yards per play.
[SIZE=15.0015px]Minnesota:[/SIZE] 5.55 yards per play.
[SIZE=15.0015px]Northwestern:[/SIZE] 5.95 yards per play.
[SIZE=15.0015px]Purdue:[/SIZE] 5.71 yards per play.
 
Mavric said:
The big plays obviously hurt but they're not the only problem. We're still near the bottom at giving up every kind of play. Slightly better than we were earlier in the year but that's not saying much.

Huskers allowing plays of...

10+ Yards - #104; Huskers: 133, Last: 175, Median: 112

20+ Yards - #118; Huskers: 55; Last: 61; Median: 36

30+ Yards - #123; Huskers: 28; Last: 31; Median: 16

40+ Yards - #113; Huskers: 14; Last: 19; Median: 8

50+ Yards - #114; Huskers: 9; Last: 14; Median: 4

60+ Yards - #39; Huskers 2; Last: 8; Median: 2

70+ Yards - #41; Huskers: 1; Last: 5; Median: 1

80+ Yards - #91; Huskers: 1; Last: 3; Median: 0
Click to expand...
I don't know whether to laugh or cry at that.

 
The Huskers haven't been facing offenses with enhanced skill or overwhelming talent — yet they've still given up 28 plays of 30-plus yards so far this season (only four teams have allowed more).

Twenty-eight! That's an average of three plays (of 30 yards or more) allowed in every game. That's one every 23 snaps.
Click to expand...
No 30-plus yard play: Opponents have scored 25.5 percent of the time, at a rate of 1.4 points per possession. It's 132 total points on 94 drives.

[SIZE=15.0015px]With a 30-plus yard play:[/SIZE] They've scored 74.1 percent of the time, at a rate of 4.4 points per possession. That's 119 points on 27 drives.
Click to expand...
>> UTEP, Eastern Michigan, SMU and New Mexico State are the only four teams that have allowed more plays of 30-plus yards than Nebraska this year. They have a combined record 6-27.
Click to expand...
 
College fooball (and really all football) is about making big plays, not really concentrating on minimizing them.

The problem with this defense, philosophically, is that it seems content to "work the chains" rather than create a big loss or take away. In other words, this defense feels good if it's "ahead of schedule" in terms of down and distance, and technically, 3rd and 5 is ahead of schedule. Unfortunately, when you play with the notion of "containing plays" you tend to give them up at least once every three or four downs.

The key to play effective D is to keep a team in X and 8+ yards. Third and "long" of less than 8 yards isn't really that challenging for most offenses.

Nebraska is 64th in sacks, 88th in TFLs, and 103rd in turnovers gained.

Creating plays is way more important than containing them.

 
I put up these rankings the other day, now two articles have also put up the rankings.

I think I'm psychic, guys.

 


This play. It was one of the most disheartening plays I can ever remember.
default_facepalm.gif


 
I've said it before, but this D is worse than 2007, and we haven't even played good offenses. It's sad.

 
This seems so baffling. We got accustomed to allowing big plays and getting blown out. Yet this year we have lost 6 by a total of 23 points. How is. That possible when we are routinely going 3 and out? What a weird year.

 
saunders45 said:
I've said it before, but this D is worse than 2007, and we haven't even played good offenses. It's sad.
Click to expand...
Lack of information is holding me back from also making that claim.

The big difference, numerically, between the two years is rush defense. Both rush and pass were at the bottom of the national rankings in 2007. But, as has been cited, the difference in opponent offensive quality between the two years is the size of a canyon.

The best running attack, by the numbers that we have faced is So. Miss. and it is hard to say how much their vastly superior offensive numbers to our other opponents is simply due to the schedule they play. The next best we'll play is Iowa at 4.6 ypc. Many of our opponents offenses are below the 4.0 threshold. The difference between the years is not only did we play several very good rushing offenses in 2007, but we also played very few very bad ones. One of the worst we played in 2007 was Iowa St at 3.0 ypc. We held them to 2.6 ypc on 51 carries, well below our average of 5.2 ypc last year.

The biggest piece of missing information is a lack of opponents who use the QB in the run game, a component that tests all defensive schemes. We've seen signs the past few weeks that may be a problem, though these aren't teams that highlight it. Purdue even went so far as to say they only did it because of the success Northwestern had. With the significant amount of man coverage we play, it would be a concern.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top