rankings by statistical comparison of team stats to date this season

beorach

Special Teams Player
It's as ridiculous as pre-season rankings but it's something to do.  I calculate z-scores and convert them to percentiles for all the stats I can from nine categories: passing defense and offense; rushing defense and offense; scoring defense and offense; total defense and offense; and turnover margin.  The numbers in the first three lists below are averages of all the stats for the categories I give details for below (the three lists which focus on good old Nebraska U).  Once we have enough data, I'll prune all games that weren't played between conference teams from the FBS statistics all teams are compared to (via calculation of the z-scores).  Sometimes I just take all the games not played against other FBS teams out but we all know not all FBS conferences are created equal either.














Rank


Team


overall




1


Toledo


88.57




2


Ohio State


83.31




3


Boise State


81.03




4


Boston College


80.95




5


Mississippi State


80.32




6


Oklahoma State


79.88




7


Alabama


75.65




8


Georgia


75.34




9


TCU


75.08




10


Missouri


74.75




11


UCF


74.67




12


Wisconsin


74.67




13


Texas Tech


72.92




14


Virginia Tech


72.79




15


Auburn


72.61




16


North Texas


72.13




17


Oregon


71.78




18


Georgia Southern


71.08




19


Louisiana-Lafayette


71.02




20


Memphis


70.81




21


West Virginia


69.84




22


Oklahoma


69.53




23


Akron


69.40




24


Miami (Florida)


69.21




25


Washington State


67.98




26


Fresno State


67.91




27


Vanderbilt


67.84




28


Texas A&M


66.62




29


Maryland


65.92




30


Clemson


65.62




31


Louisiana Tech


65.23




32


Arizona State


64.98




33


Utah


64.62




34


Buffalo


64.49




35


Baylor


61.63




36


Michigan


60.74




37


Southern Mississippi


60.65




38


Minnesota


59.93




39


Houston


59.32




40


Syracuse


59.25




41


Ball State


58.44




42


Georgia Tech


58.42




43


UAB


57.50




44


North Carolina State


57.22




45


Stanford


56.85




46


Indiana


56.56




47


LSU


56.32




48


Washington


55.92




49


Kent State


55.79




50


South Florida


55.64




51


Virginia


55.51




52


Colorado


55.49




53


Penn State


55.44




54


Illinois


55.42




55


Kansas State


55.38




56


Arkansas


54.96




57


Air Force


54.83




58


Appalachian State


54.78




59


Mississippi


54.74




60


Tennessee


54.69




61


Marshall


54.31




62


Florida


53.72




63


Wake Forest


53.60




64


Utah State


53.55




65


Duke


52.80




66


Troy


52.12




67


California


52.05




68


Idaho


51.84




69


Eastern Michigan


51.29




70


Iowa State


51.18




71


Cincinnati


51.18




72


East Carolina


50.13




73


Kentucky


49.78




74


Tulane


48.62




75


South Carolina


48.42




76


UNLV


47.83




77


Notre Dame


47.60




78


Nebraska


46.92




79


Hawai'i


46.86




80


Louisiana-Monroe


46.34




81


Army


45.99




82


Michigan State


45.41




83


Nevada


45.11




84


Texas


44.18




85


Ohio


42.87




86


Purdue


41.71




87


Tulsa


41.16




88


USC


40.97




89


Iowa


40.46




90


Northwestern


40.45




91


San Diego State


40.37




92


BYU


40.22




93


Florida International


38.27




94


Middle Tennessee


38.23




95


Florida State


37.76




96


Charlotte


37.72




97


Pittsburgh


37.67




98


New Mexico


37.44




99


Navy


36.80




100


Oregon State


36.77




101


Arkansas State


35.76




102


Massachusetts


35.02




103


Texas State


34.54




104


Wyoming


33.42




105


UCLA


31.45




106


Coastal Carolina


31.38




107


Miami (Ohio)


31.14




108


Louisville


30.79




109


Rice


30.42




110


Western Kentucky


30.38




111


Colorado State


29.79




112


Northern Illinois


29.65




113


Arizona


28.48




114


Georgia State


28.04




115


North Carolina


27.84




116


Rutgers


26.80




117


Temple


25.20




118


Western Michigan


25.09




119


Florida Atlantic


24.98




120


Kansas


24.86




121


Central Michigan


23.00




122


San Jose State


19.99




123


SMU


19.51




124


South Alabama


19.42




125


UTEP


19.21




126


Bowling Green


19.17




127


Old Dominion


18.57




128


New Mexico State


17.03




129


UTSA


12.58




130


Connecticut


11.12




















Rank


Team


defense




1


Utah


92.94




2


Washington State


90.59




3


Mississippi State


88.58




4


Akron


88.50




5


Indiana


88.33




6


TCU


87.36




7


Miami (Florida)


86.04




8


Toledo


84.77




9


Georgia Southern


82.62




10


Wisconsin


81.52




11


Oklahoma State


80.74




12


Georgia


80.50




13


Stanford


78.70




14


Cincinnati


78.68




15


Missouri


78.65




16


Michigan


78.42




17


Vanderbilt


78.16




18


Iowa


77.95




19


Auburn


77.73




20


LSU


76.73




21


Arizona State


75.83




22


Virginia Tech


75.55




23


Ohio State


75.12




24


Minnesota


74.42




25


Southern Mississippi


74.15




26


Alabama


72.63




27


California


72.05




28


Memphis


71.37




29


North Texas


70.48




30


Kent State


69.88




31


Boise State


69.49




32


Virginia


69.46




33


Fresno State


69.43




34


Boston College


68.43




35


Iowa State


67.96




36


West Virginia


67.74




37


Notre Dame


67.49




38


Buffalo


67.44




39


Air Force


66.96




40


Washington


65.58




41


Louisiana-Lafayette


65.34




42


Oregon


65.13




43


Maryland


65.13




44


Clemson


64.39




45


UCF


64.04




46


North Carolina State


63.18




47


Duke


63.07




48


Texas A&M


62.78




49


Marshall


61.85




50


Ball State


61.66




51


Florida


59.71




52


Louisiana Tech


59.23




53


East Carolina


59.16




54


San Diego State


58.90




55


Illinois


57.84




56


Georgia Tech


56.88




57


Texas Tech


56.61




58


Oklahoma


56.19




59


UAB


55.29




60


Appalachian State


54.48




61


Tennessee


54.32




62


Michigan State


52.98




63


USC


52.58




64


Charlotte


51.36




65


Northern Illinois


51.30




66


Kansas State


51.29




67


Utah State


51.23




68


BYU


49.96




69


Baylor


49.43




70


Wake Forest


48.92




71


Idaho


48.21




72


Penn State


47.53




73


Pittsburgh


45.37




74


Arkansas


45.17




75


Florida State


45.08




76


Eastern Michigan


45.05




77


Kentucky


44.36




78


Troy


44.11




79


Colorado


44.00




80


Louisiana-Monroe


43.26




81


Louisville


43.13




82


Northwestern


43.07




83


Miami (Ohio)


42.85




84


Texas


42.71




85


Army


42.24




86


Wyoming


42.02




87


South Carolina


41.89




88


Texas State


41.63




89


Purdue


41.14




90


Tulane


41.01




91


South Florida


40.80




92


Tulsa


40.58




93


Houston


40.12




94


Nevada


39.12




95


Rutgers


39.08




96


Western Kentucky


38.60




97


Nebraska


38.14




98


Kansas


38.06




99


Florida International


37.42




100


Syracuse


37.01




101


North Carolina


36.65




102


Temple


34.10




103


Central Michigan


33.71




104


UNLV


33.39




105


Middle Tennessee


31.13




106


UCLA


30.29




107


Georgia State


27.58




108


New Mexico State


23.53




109


SMU


22.18




110


Massachusetts


22.13




111


Ohio


21.95




112


Arizona


20.92




113


UTEP


20.31




114


Arkansas State


19.98




115


Mississippi


18.37




116


Navy


17.78




117


Hawai'i


17.60




118


Coastal Carolina


17.34




119


San Jose State


15.87




120


New Mexico


15.78




121


UTSA


15.29




122


Rice


15.02




123


Bowling Green


13.72




124


Western Michigan


13.59




125


South Alabama


12.71




126


Old Dominion


11.50




127


Colorado State


10.87




128


Florida Atlantic


6.35




129


Oregon State


4.13




130


Connecticut


0.38




















Rank


Team


offense




1


Ohio State


95.87




2


Boston College


93.41




3


Boise State


92.35




4


Oklahoma State


92.21




5


Toledo


91.52




6


Oklahoma


88.32




7


Mississippi


88.31




8


Louisiana-Lafayette


87.14




9


Texas Tech


86.96




10


UCF


85.48




11


Oregon


84.84




12


Alabama


83.85




13


Texas A&M


82.23




14


Memphis


81.62




15


West Virginia


80.12




16


Houston


79.63




17


Syracuse


78.04




18


Mississippi State


77.86




19


Baylor


77.67




20


Missouri


75.15




21


Georgia


74.96




22


Hawai'i


74.54




23


Louisiana Tech


73.56




24


North Texas


73.12




25


Wisconsin


70.38




26


Auburn


70.06




27


Oregon State


69.71




28


Georgia Tech


68.11




29


Wake Forest


66.81




30


Nebraska


66.16




31


Virginia Tech


65.25




32


TCU


65.12




33


UAB


64.99




34


Maryland


64.68




35


Kansas State


64.66




36


Colorado


64.39




37


South Florida


63.97




38


Clemson


62.45




39


Penn State


60.93




40


Kentucky


60.87




41


Fresno State


60.44




42


Appalachian State


59.71




43


New Mexico


59.61




44


Troy


59.55




45


Georgia Southern


58.66




46


Miami (Florida)


58.19




47


UNLV


57.61




48


Washington State


57.47




49


Akron


56.71




50


Arkansas


56.38




51


Ball State


55.95




52


Nevada


55.59




53


Arkansas State


55.34




54


South Carolina


55.16




55


Washington


55.10




56


Buffalo


54.62




57


Vanderbilt


54.26




58


Southern Mississippi


53.84




59


North Carolina State


53.69




60


Eastern Michigan


53.56




61


Kent State


52.43




62


Arizona State


51.59




63


Utah State


50.93




64


Ohio


50.21




65


Tulane


50.17




66


Illinois


50.09




67


Texas


50.00




68


Utah


49.43




69


Purdue


49.39




70


East Carolina


48.48




71


Idaho


48.16




72


Tennessee


48.10




73


Louisiana-Monroe


47.35




74


Massachusetts


46.98




75


Marshall


46.89




76


Minnesota


46.70




77


Michigan


46.69




78


Middle Tennessee


45.98




79


Tulsa


45.29




80


Air Force


44.92




81


Army


44.81




82


Navy


44.43




83


Florida International


43.79




84


Colorado State


42.89




85


Florida


42.53




86


Virginia


41.54




87


Coastal Carolina


41.51




88


Rice


41.50




89


Florida Atlantic


40.58




90


Michigan State


37.82




91


Duke


37.09




92


Arizona


35.85




93


Western Michigan


35.57




94


Northwestern


33.85




95


USC


32.48




96


Florida State


31.50




97


Pittsburgh


30.72




98


Stanford


30.41




99


Notre Dame


28.08




100


LSU


28.02




101


California


27.13




102


BYU


26.15




103


UCLA


26.05




104


San Diego State


24.94




105


Iowa State


24.27




106


Texas State


22.61




107


Cincinnati


22.38




108


North Carolina


22.34




109


Indiana


22.12




110


Charlotte


22.01




111


Georgia State


21.63




112


Connecticut


21.21




113


Louisville


21.02




114


UTEP


20.84




115


Western Kentucky


20.69




116


Wyoming


19.67




117


Old Dominion


18.74




118


Bowling Green


17.91




119


San Jose State


17.90




120


Temple


17.70




121


South Alabama


17.66




122


Miami (Ohio)


17.59




123


Rutgers


16.24




124


Kansas


14.55




125


Central Michigan


11.41




126


SMU


10.00




127


UTSA


8.02




128


New Mexico State


7.83




129


Northern Illinois


6.38




130


Iowa


6.09







As for detailed NU stats, I have the following breakdown of the nine aforementioned categories (with the scores being given as the calculated percentiles of the given stats within them - please remember this is all relative and most teams haven't played anyone even as tough as the Buffies yet):

passing defense

completions per game: 1

percentage:                  15

yards per attempt:        47

touchdowns per game: 6

passer rating:                26

yards per game:            4

passing offense:

completions per game: 47

percentage:                  71

yards per attempt:        58

touchdowns per game: 20

passer rating:                45

yards per game:            47

rushing defense

yards per carry:             97

touchdowns per game:  64

yards per game:            94

rushing offense

yards per carry:              85

touchdowns per game:  82

yards per game:             97

scoring defense

touchdowns per game:  26

points per game:            20

scoring offense

touchdowns per game:  44

points per game:            34

total defense

yards per play:               71

yards per game:             40

plays per game:              3

total offense

yards per play:               73

yards per game:             91

plays per game:             95

turnover margin

fumbles gained per game:           12

interceptions gained per game:   8

turnovers gained per game:        4

fumbles lost per game:                1

interceptions lost per game:        34

turnovers lost per game:              3

turnover margin per game:          1

 
My goodness, do not quote an OP when you’re the 2nd post, especially when the OP takes 10 mins to scroll through on a phone.

Also, holy Toledo. 

 
giphy.gif


 
First off, thanks.  It looks like thats an incredible amount of work.  Secondly, what does it mean!  I'd like to think had we played Akron, we'd look MUCH better....

 
This is the type of thing I would like to do if I had the time, energy or inclination. But now I can’t get this song out of my head...




 
I appreciate the concern over my time but this actually doesn't take much since I set up my spreadsheets to copy and paste into a number of years ago.  I did it to calculate spreads and I've made money a couple of seasons (though I've mainly lost - not the math's fault, of course).  There were some posters here who helped me improve it, too, so it was worthwhile to share for more than the usual reason.  If it bothers some of you, please feel free to ignore it.  I particularly like having whole seasons' worth of data to compare our past coaches, though.  E.g., here's my last stats post from the end of the Riley era:

2017-18 Final Stats Post

 
Someone get Brad Pitt on the phone. See if he is down to do another Moneyball movie. Football Edition


I'm used to receiving a few rude/ignorant responses to my stats posts but this may be the first time anyone hasn't been able to leave just one (virtual) flaming bag of crap. 

This post will almost certainly generate a third! 



 
I'm used to receiving a few rude/ignorant responses to my stats posts but this may be the first time anyone hasn't been able to leave just one (virtual) flaming bag of crap. 

This post will almost certainly generate a third! 
tumblr_n0f7xvkfl11snelo3o1_400.gif


Just having fun buddy.

 
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