Sagarin Weird Ratings - Downfall Bigtime

[Hooked on Huskers]

Huskers: #47. #40 last week. Suffered Wyo vs Texas St my guess. Lack of SOS.

http://www.usatoday....arin/2013/team/

Predictor column: NU by 7 points against Illinois (#54)

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5.

 

[BIG ERN]

Early line was us -10.5

 

[husker_99]

The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5.

not necessarily.

 

[Hooked on Huskers]

The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5.

Line is -13.5 to -19.5

. I don't get it. I thought 77.37 (Nebraska) plus 4.24 (home advantage) minus 74.87 (Illinois) equals 6.78 points. Please explain. Thank you.

Dummy here.

Gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as a source of "Power Rankings," traditionally used as a way to determine the spread between two teams - wiki source

 

[JTrain]

The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5.

Line is -13.5 to -19.5

. I don't get it. I thought 77.37 (Nebraska) plus 4.24 (home advantage) minus 74.87 (Illinois) equals 6.78 points. Please explain. Thank you.

Dummy here.

Gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as a source of "Power Rankings," traditionally used as a way to determine the spread between two teams - wiki source

Are you referring to betting lines? Those are set by bookmakers in Vegas and offshore. They have no direct correlation with Sagarin or any other rankings.

Based on Sagarin's predictor ratings, you are right about the points. But that doesn't effect the betting lines.

 

[tschu]

Meh, we're 36 in the Predictor, which is the only thing that truly matters. LOL @ the BCS

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5.

Line is -13.5 to -19.5

. I don't get it. I thought 77.37 (Nebraska) plus 4.24 (home advantage) minus 74.87 (Illinois) equals 6.78 points. Please explain. Thank you.

Dummy here.

Gamblers use Sagarin's ratings as a source of "Power Rankings," traditionally used as a way to determine the spread between two teams - wiki source

Are you referring to betting lines? Those are set by bookmakers in Vegas and offshore. They have no direct correlation with Sagarin or any other rankings.

Based on Sagarin's predictor ratings, you are right about the points. But that doesn't effect the betting lines.

Yeah, JTrain is right about the betting lines. I think we should be about 16 point favorites. Hooked, I was using the difference in their predictor rankings instead of the number he came up with. That was my bad.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5.

not necessarily.

Yes, in a pure statistic and unbiased model, you can't move up if you don't play. You can only move down.

 

[Hooked on Huskers]

Usually Sag Predictor was close (+/- 3 points) to Las Vegas betting lines

 

[husker_99]

The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5.

not necessarily.

Yes, in a pure statistic and unbiased model, you can't move up if you don't play. You can only move down.

unless all the other teams above you lose and the teams underneath don't win either. then you move up by default.

 

[tschu]

The betting lines are set initially by the books and then moved according to market action. However, many gamblers as well as the books themselves use Sagarin's predictor as one source of information, among many others.

 

[JTrain]

Line at BookMaker is -10.5

 

[BIG ERN]

So basically if you believe these rating vs vegas lines ---you would take Illi @ +10.5

 

[RedDenver]

The rankings always hurt the teams on bye weeks, especially early in the season. We're #36 in his predictor column whereas Illinois is #52. So the line should be anywhere from -13.5 to -19.5.

not necessarily.

Yes, in a pure statistic and unbiased model, you can't move up if you don't play. You can only move down.

No. Imagine the teams you played in previous weeks beat opponents ranked ahead of you. Then teams ahead of you have a loss (moving them down potentially) and your SOS goes up (moving you up potentially). Anything that makes your team look better (opponents winning) or teams ahead of your team worse will move your team up.