SBNation: Scott Frost’s Nebraska rebuild is going just fine.

[Saunders]

This stat shows Nebraska is a lot closer to a turnaround than it looks

Here’s why the numbers view the Huskers as a team good enough to have a winning record right now.

That Nebraska beat Minnesota in Lincoln shouldn’t have been particularly noteworthy. The Huskers have now won five of eight in the series since joining the Big Ten, 19 of 22 going back to 1963. The 25-point margin wasn’t all that noticeable either — it’s been a lot worse in this series.

Until vanquishing the Gophers, though, Nebraska was off to a historically awful start in Scott Frost’s first season — the Cornhuskers were 0-6 for the first time in their 129-year history. The program’s fortunes have slid dramatically over the 20 years since legendary coach Tom Osborne retired. With a loss to Troy, blowout road losses to Michigan and Wisconsin, and a spectacular blown lead at Northwestern, this fall seemed to represent a bottoming out.

It was awful only in the win column, though. Based on actual team quality, Frost’s rebuild has gone almost exactly as projected.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2018/10/23/18014800/nebraska-huskers-football-scott-frost-2018

 

[Mavric]

The Huskers’ awful fortunes didn’t begin with the crazy loss to Northwestern — four of NU’s six losses featured at least a 38 percent post-game win expectancy, meaning stats saw tossups.

Colorado 33, Nebraska 28 (NU’s post-game probability: 95 percent)
Troy 24, Nebraska 19 (55 percent)
Purdue 42, Nebraska 28 (38 percent)
Northwestern 34, Nebraska 31 (84 percent)

Based on post-game stats, NU’s chances of going 4-0 in these games were much higher (17 percent) than their chances of going 0-4 (0.2 percent). But 0-4 they went.