The Great JUCO DE-bate 2015

[Thanks_Tom RR]

I think most would agree that we have a DE depth issue this year that could carry over into 2015, though I am interested to hear if someone would counter this view. Right now, we have 6-8 scholarship DE (depending on if you move Stoltenberg from OL and Newell from DT), but only two (Randy Gregory and Greg McMullen) return with significant game experience. The other 6 are: 1 new JUCO DE who has been getting reps with the 1's and 2's this spring but, according to reports, has not turned the corner (Joe Keels); 1 RS Freshman DE with good upside, but coming off of an injury (AJ Natter); and 4 incoming HS DE (Peyton Newell, Sedric King, DeAndre Wills, and Mick Stoltenberg). After 2014, Gregory could leave for the draft, increasing our need at DE (though we might get Moss back in Dec).

Anyway, I am sure we pick up 1-2 more DE for the 2015 class (in addition to Daishon Neal), and I could see one of those being a JUCO to provide immediate competition and depth for the 2015 team. However, Nebraska has not made any offers yet. I started looking through film of 2015 JUCO DE and, doing my best Nostradamus, I am projecting a list of potential JUCO DE that Nebraska may offer based on size (modeling that

), athleticism, current recruitment (avoiding those that look to be all but committed already), on-field JUCO stats (to a degree), and potential fit.
Thus far, I have:

Larry Jefferson - 6'5", 230 lbs - Itawamba CC, Fulton MS - Hudl

Timmy Hamilton - 6'4", 250 lbs - Coffeyville CC, Coffeyville, KS - Hudl

Takkarist McKinley - 6'4", 230 lbs - Contra Costa CC, San Pablo, CA - Hudl

Anthony Fotu - 6'4", 285 lbs - Laney CC, Oakland, CA - Hudl

I have not heard any news about Nebraska looking for a JUCO DE, let alone who is close to an offer. Still, I wanted to share my own thoughts, so we can debate: (1) if we have a DE depth issue, (2) if we need a JUCO DE for this class, and (3) who projects best for this position in this class.

 

[zoogs]

2015

McMullen RJr.

Keels Sr.

Natter RSo.

(Moss - RSo?)

King RFr.

Wills RFr.

Stoltenberg RFr. (is he a DE?)

Neal TFr.

7-8...is that a lot of scholarship bodies for the position? It seems fairly high, but youth-heavy. To layer the depth here, a JUCO over another freshman would be ideal.

I'm unfamiliar with all of the incoming recruits you named, although looking them over on Rivals they have about 8 BCS conference offers between the three of them and they're in the high-2/low-3 star range. If Moss's status is in doubt, I think you want a game-ready JUCO here in case the freshman class doesn't pan out (even if it's a stop-gap player). If it isn't in doubt, I think we need to score a really heavy-hitting recruit (even if it's a freshman). This isn't to say less heralded recruits don't work out - as we all know, they can - but it does seem like shaky ground if we go through two recruiting cycles and end up with 4 DEs who fall into the less recruited/projection category. That could easily result in depth issues and more in '15 and '16.

Although this is a very small class, right? So you also don't want to take a guy just to take a guy. If Neal is it, then Moss needs to return and we will need to really target the DE position for the next class after this.

 

[Mavric]

IMHO, "IF" we have a depth issue isn't up for debate. We do. The discussion is how we fix it. If Gregory and McMullen stay healthy this year, we won't have a big problem. They will play 90% of the meaningful snaps and we have enough options to find someone to fill in the rest in spot duty.

Going forward, I would be pretty surprised if we go after a JUCO DE this year. You have to plan on Gregory leaving (but hoping he stays) and Keels is the only other upperclassman DE we have so he'll only have one more year after this.

I would think the only reason we really wouldn't go after a JUCO DE is if at least two of the newcomers really come on strong and are solid contributors this year (I'm including Natter in this group as he redshirted last year). Keels seems to have potential but hasn't picked things up very quickly so far. Natter has been slowed by injuries and I'm not sure how high his ceiling is. I have the same ceiling concerns about King and Wills as well. I think they can all be solid but not sure any is a game-changer. Hopefully they prove me wrong.

I really like that we've decided to move Stoltenberg to the defensive side when he gets here. He's not a freak athlete like Gregory but he seems relentless on film and that will get you places at DE. I'm also intrigued by Freedom Akinmoladun. We recruited him at TE but a lot of people thought he projected better at DE. He definitely has the frame we like at DE. We aren't overly stocked at TE but we haven't been using traditional TE roles as much so I wonder if the staff will look at him as well.

 

[Mavric]

2015

McMullen RJr.

Keels Sr.

Natter RSo.

(Moss - RSo?)

King RFr.

Wills RFr.

Stoltenberg RFr. (is he a DE?)

Neal TFr.

Also, Newell (So/RSF) can play end and at least one of the Davis twins(TFr). And Collins (Jr) has played end this spring. We won't be short on options, just need a couple to really develop.

 

[TonyStalloni]

There are a lot of ifs before this question can be answered and only time will tell. If Keels is who they think he is and if Natter stays healthy and if Moss gets to return and if Collins can be adequate as a DE stopper then we can be creative in recruiting later in the fall. I'm guessing by the end of fall camp the coaches will know what we need and recruit accordingly.

 

[BigRedBuster]

There is a big difference between a true DE and a DT that plays there in certain situations.

 

[HuskersBeatIowa]

Ya its all concerning but if we stay healthy, and occationally mix in some dt's (collins) and some hybrid linebacker role(rose) we should be fine, while also mixing in reps and developing the underclassmen. I also dont think it would be a bad idea worse case senario if we have those depth issues we could maybe work in some 3-4 packages as we obviously dont have any concerns with our depth at LB.

 

[Thanks_Tom RR]

I would think the only reason we really wouldn't go after a JUCO DE is if at least two of the newcomers really come on strong and are solid contributors this year

I agree with this 100%. However, how long do you wait and see if the incoming freshmen can contribute, end of fall camp, end of non-conference play, mid-conference play, end of regular season? The risk obviously with that is the longer you wait, the more options for recruits you miss out on.

Also, Newell (So/RSF) can play end and at least one of the Davis twins(TFr). And Collins (Jr) has played end this spring. We won't be short on options, just need a couple to really develop.

This is the crux of the problem. We will have upwards of 8 DE on scholarship next year (and have the option of sliding Collins from DT and Newby from LB for specific packages), but only our 2 DE starters are game tested. Further, Keels and Natter did not prove themselves during spring ball, and the other 4 are incoming HS freshmen. For this year, we will have to play our 2 starters, Keels (most likely), and a burn the RS year of at least one of our 4 true freshmen, if Natter does not develop after recovering this spring/summer from his surgery. Of course, you would think we would be ready from 2015 after making some of our youth battle tested this year, but then you throw the wrench in that is Randy Gregory's potential departure for the NFL.

With this many question marks going into the year, I feel like rolling the dice with a JUCO DE would at least give us another options for 2015.

 

[Thanks_Tom RR]

If Moss's status is in doubt, I think you want a game-ready JUCO here in case the freshman class doesn't pan out (even if it's a stop-gap player). If it isn't in doubt, I think we need to score a really heavy-hitting recruit (even if it's a freshman). This isn't to say less heralded recruits don't work out - as we all know, they can - but it does seem like shaky ground if we go through two recruiting cycles and end up with 4 DEs who fall into the less recruited/projection category. That could easily result in depth issues and more in '15 and '16.

I looked up my 4 prospects up on 247 and Scout (Rivals and ESPN do not have most/any of the JUCO rated yet):

247

Takkarist McKinley - #12 Overall; #2 SDE;

:star

:star

Larry Jefferson - #30 Overall; #2 WDE;

:star

Anthony Fotu - #48 Overall; #5 DT;

:star

Timmy Hamilton - #54 Overall; #9 SDE;

:star

Scout (Overall ranking; DE ranking)

Anthony Fotu - #11 Overall; #3 DE;

:star

:star

Takkarist McKinley - #24 Overall; #5 DE;

:star

Larry Jefferson - #29 Overall; #9 DE;

:star

Timmy Hamilton - NR

If you are looking just at stars, these guys, as a group, all are rated within the top 10 DE for both services (except Hamilton which is not rated by Scout yet), varying between 2-4 stars. Most of the other guys in the top 10 would not make my list for the simple reasons that they look like "locks" for other programs and/or I do not see the speed and athleticism in their films that is apparent in Randy Gregory's JUCO film.

 

[Stumpy1]

It wouldn't suprise me to see Newby and/or Love get moved down to DE after this year, especially if they play it on situational downs and wreck sh#t.

 

[zoogs]

Thanks_Tom, do you figure Nebraska will show any interest in those guys, or is it too early to say one way or another? Also, are they all JUCO position rankings?

It seems like we will have a lot of bodies/options without a lot of knowns, especially if the freshmen are redshirting. Do we have room to take a second DE in this class, though? Or might it be better to simply try extra hard for an impact player in the next cycle?

 

[Thanks_Tom RR]

Thanks_Tom, do you figure Nebraska will show any interest in those guys, or is it too early to say one way or another?

Nothing suggests that at this point Nebraska has looked into the JUCO ranks for a DE (which is part of the reason why I wanted to debate the issue). However, spring evaluation is starting, and we usually start making JUCO offers in spring/summer. If we are looking for a Randy-like DE that will still be available, I could see each of these guys getting looks.

Also, are they all JUCO position rankings?

Yes. I think JUCO evaluations for these services are usually kept separate from HS, so this is not unexpected.

It seems like we will have a lot of bodies/options without a lot of knowns, especially if the freshmen are redshirting. Do we have room to take a second DE in this class, though? Or might it be better to simply try extra hard for an impact player in the next cycle?

This is the argument right here. Do we wait to see if (1) we stay injury free at our two DE starters, (2) Randy stays, (3) Keels and/or Natter develop, (4) Newby stands out in pass rush off the edge, (5) 1-2 of our 4 true freshmen DE provide significant impact, or (6) Moss returns game ready? For DE to work in 2014 and 2015, I think 2 of 6 of these what-ifs has to work out. If not, we walk into 2015 worse off at DE than this coming year.

I would not necessarily look into the HS ranks for another DE in the 2016 cycle to solve our depth concerns. Even, if we could score someone like a Blake McClain, who we thought had a chance for early contributes, they would not help us for 2014 or 2015. Bo says he has a plan for 2014, which I assume relies on getting two additional DE to develop quickly (whether that is Keels, Natter, or some of the 4 true freshmen) and using Collins and Newby in specific packages. For help in 2015, I would consider scouting the JUCO ranks this cycle for a game ready DE to add competition and immediate impact.

 

[dylan]

Pretty sure Moss is staying in Lincoln, indicating he expects to be back on the team next year. That's way better than getting a juco.

Unless there's an unforeseen issue with him or the guys we've already got, I wouldn't expect a juco end. Now, if we run across one as talented as Gregory, we'll offer no matter what are needs are.

 

[Thanks_Tom RR]

Pretty sure Moss is staying in Lincoln, indicating he expects to be back on the team next year. That's way better than getting a juco.

Unless there's an unforeseen issue with him or the guys we've already got, I wouldn't expect a juco end. Now, if we run across one as talented as Gregory, we'll offer no matter what are needs are.

So you are fine with our depth the next two years, if we get Moss back? How do you see our depth projections for 2014 and 2015?

 

[dylan]

We (or at least the coaches) will have a much better idea of our need there come fall, when we can better assess not only the freshmen, but what kind of progress keels and natter are making. Seems like the early returns on keels were a bit disappointing, but some time over the summer to condition and learn what he's doing could go a long way. There were some rumblings last year that natter looked like a future contributor, but he was slowed by injury this spring, so he's still a bit of an unknown in my mind. The only real known quantities are Gregory, whom I wouldn't count on being here in 2015, McMullen and Moss.

Considering we are 1.5 years away from the 2015 season, I don't think it's that unusual to have some unknowns. The important thing is that you line up enough potential players to give yourself a shot. I think we're doing fine on numbers, so it'll come down to this fall to see if we've got the right quality in numbers.

2014

Gregory

McMullen

Keels

Natter

King

Wills

Gangwish (solid walk-on)

We also have other possibilities like Newby in rush situations, Collins if necessary or in the 3-4 rush package, maybe Newell, maybe Stoltenberg?

Depth at DE this year is one of the bigger question marks on the team due to the number of unknowns. I feel like it's less of a concern for the following year (when we'd be recruiting a juco for), as that will give all of keels, natter and however many freshmen, time to develop.

2015

Gregory? (Wouldn't count on it)

Moss

McMullen

Keels

Natter

King

Wills

Gangwish

Others as listed above

Neal (raw frosh, probable redshirt)

So, as I said, we'll know a lot more about our needs for 2015 come this fall when we get a better idea about some of these guys. As it stands, I'm not particularly concerned about numbers.

Would I still take a juco end for 2015 if he was a flat stud? Definitely. But that's the case every year. I just don't see a big need for it yet unless we find out come fall that a couple of these guys don't look like they're going to work out.

Boy, if Gregory does come back for 2015 though, that defense could be downright frightening with the returning talent at every level.