Week 11 "Expert" Picks: Nebraska @ Penn State

Saunders

Heisman Trophy Winner
Yahoo! Sports - http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/f...oPql4T_zH4cvrYF

Gerry Ahern (N) - Mike Hugenin (N) - Yahoo! Users (N)

THE BUZZ: This is the most important game in the Big Ten this week, but its importance has been vastly overshadowed by what is happening off the field with the Jerry Sandusky case. As insignificant as it might sound, the Huskers basically are in a must-win situation if they want to win the Legends Division.

THE LINE: Nebraska by 3.5 THE PICK: Nebraska 16 - Penn State 10

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Phil Steele - http://www.philsteele.com/Blog...11/DBNov09.html

Home finale for PSU who LY lost for 1st time in 11Y (vs MSU) but is only 1-4 ATS. PSU is fresh off a bye while the Huskers make their first trip here S/’02 when the unranked Lions (+5) thrashed #8 NU, 40-7. The Rodney Dangerfield 8-1 Lions only need to win 2 of their L/3 to earn the trip to the 1st ever B10 Champ gm but there are no gimmes left with trips to Columbus (where PSU is 1-8) and Madison left. Suspect PSU off’s 251 yds is still the most Bama’s #1 D has all’d in ‘11 with Redd’s 5 straight 100 yd gms (1006, 5.2) the 1st in the program S/’97. QB McGloin (133, 56%, 7-3) hasn’t exactly been Aaron Rodgers as the Lions are #106 pass eff. The Lions have been tough up front all 112 rush ypg (3.1) with 7 TD’s all’d in 6 HG’s (3 to Bama). The Huskers lost to an unranked tm at home for the 5th straight ssn as 17’ pt dog NW beat NU as yet another outright upset winner for our Big Dog POW. Despite losing QB Persa in the 1H to a shoulder inj the Cats never trailed as they had a 207-122 rush yd edge. Neb did fmbl inside the NW5 and at the NW20 but the Blackshirts also got a sk/fmbl at the NU36, flipped the field with a 55 yd IR and a missed 45 yd FG. Burkhead (951, 5.1) and Martinez (172, 59%, 10-7, 712 rush) were both held in check by the Cats D. Blackshirts are thin up front allowing 183 rush ypg (4.3) in B10 play. This is a great situational edge for the HD Lions who give the Huskers their 2nd B10 road reality check.

PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN STATE 24 - NEBRASKA 17

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CBS Sports - http://www.cbssports.com/colle...rs/expert/picks

Dennis Dodd (N) - Bruce Feldman (N) - Brett McMurphy (N) - Tom Fornelli (N)

Jerry Hinnen (N) - Adam Jacobi (N) - Chip Patterson (N)

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Collegefootballnews.com - http://cfn.scout.com/2/1126509.html

Here’s The Deal … Penn State is still going to play Nebraska on Saturday.

For around four hours, the Penn State football program will try to go on with life as normal, even though life as the Penn State football program knew it is gone.

The scandal surrounding the university and the firing of Joe Paterno overshadows everything and anything about this game, which under normal circumstances might be seen as a possible Big Ten Championship preview with Penn State leading the Leaders by two games and Nebraska in the thick of the Legends hunt despite a clunker of a loss to Northwestern last week.

Under normal circumstances, this would be a glorious moment for the Big Ten and a time to look back on one of the greatest regular season games in college football history – the 1982 Penn State win that propelled the program to Paterno’s first national championship – and the 44-6 Husker destruction of the Nittany Lions in the 1983 opener that set the tone for a dominant regular season run.

Under normal circumstances, this might be the biggest showdown in a relatively light week of big games, and this would be the moment when Penn State was able to prove that the 8-1 start to the season is for real before diving into the dates at Ohio State and Wisconsin to close out the regular season. Under normal circumstances, the focus would be on Senior Day and Penn State’s home game of the year.

But these are hardly normal circumstances.

On the field, the football side of the Penn State program tried to prepare like it’s business as usual, but now it'll have to do it with defensive coordinator Tom Bradley at the helm. He takes over with the Nittany Lions on a seven-game winning streak, but it’s hardly been impressive with the Big Ten’s second-worst scoring offense, the least-efficient passing game, and close win after close win against a slew of mediocre teams. It took a fortunate pass interference call and a field goal that went off the upright to get by Illinois 10-7, and it took way too much work and effort to get by Indiana, Temple, and Purdue. But 8-1 is 8-1, and with a win, the Nittany Lions can clinch at least a tie for the Leaders title.

Nebraska has been flaky, looking great on a three-game winning streak, including a dominant win over a limp Michigan State, but struggling to get anything moving until it was too late in last week’s loss to the Wildcats. The Husker defense has been stunningly inconsistent, the offense is a two-man show between Taylor Martinez and Rex Burkhead, and there’s no passing game. Even so, with Michigan and Iowa to close things out, the Huskers control their own Big Ten title destiny with their first win in Happy Valley since a 21-7 win in 1980.

But the game will end, and Penn State will have to get back to dealing with the nightmare. For a few hours, though, it should be a great game.

At least it would be under normal circumstances.

Why Nebraska Might Win: Obviously, this is as distracted as an opponent can possibly be. The Penn State coaching staff has tried to prepare as normal, practice as usual, and get through the week like it would before any other big game, but that didn’t happen. It’s not like the Huskers are going to care. Head coach Bo Pelini publicly stated that he’s not that familiar with what’s going on – no one has more tunnel vision than a college football head coach – and Nebraska really, really needs this win after last week’s loss.

In terms of Xs and Os, Nebraska has had problems so far this year with mobile quarterbacks. Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson gave the Huskers fits; Minnesota’s MarQueis Gray ran for 67 yards; Ohio State’s Braxton Miller ran for 91; and last week, Northwestern’s Kain Colter ran for 57 yards and two scores and threw for 115 yards. Mobile quarterbacks aren’t going to be an issue this week, with the Penn State combination of Matt McGloin and Rob Bolden trying to find some consistency and some downfield production. Outside of a gaffe against NU’s Jeremy Ebert last week, the Husker secondary has been a rock, and it’s not going to get lit up against the horrible Penn State passing game. If Nebraska just has to focus on stopping one thing, it can.

Why Penn State Might Win: The Huskers can be run on. There have been some good moments this year for the Nebraska defensive front – most notably in the second half against Ohio State – but without star tackle Jared Crick, the line has been surprisingly soft and the back seven have had to clean up several major messes. Penn State has been able to run well with regularity thanks to a terrific season so far from the offensive front and from running back Silas Redd, who has a nice string of five 100-yard games in a row and should make it six against a defense that’s given up 200 yards or more in three of the five Big Ten games while allowing 12 scores. So far this year, Nebraska is 7-0 when allowing two rushing scores or fewer, and 0-2 when giving up more than two.

And then there’s the emotional factor. It’s Senior Day, which didn’t mean much last year in a 28-22 loss to Michigan State, but the Nittany Lions won their previous nine. This isn’t just the last game for the Penn State seniors; it's the first game without Joe Paterno. For good and for bad, after all the emotion and all the stress of this last week, watch out for a focused team that realizes this could be the last hurrah in so many ways. Penn State has always played up to the milestone moments for Paterno, and this will be one of them as the first game A.J. (After Joe). But here's the little secret that's been lost - Bradley has basically been like a head coach for the last few years. There won't be a drop-off in the coaching.

What To Watch Out For: Penn State defensive tackle Devon Still, who has eaten up everything in his path on the way to a certain All-Big Ten season. Big, strong, and quick, talent was never a problem, but staying healthy was a big issue. This year he has put it all together with 47 tackles with 15.5 tackles for loss and four sacks. Three of the sacks have come in the last four games as he’s now the Big Ten’s premier interior pass rusher. He has to collapse things from the inside and force Taylor Martinez to make things happen running wide.

Nebraska’s defense is anchored once again by tackling-machine Lavonte David, who might not be a national name, but he’s coming up with a second straight fantastic season with 88 tackles and two sacks. With the line struggling, especially without Crick, David has had more responsibility, and he’s handling it well with 11 tackles last week after making 13 against Michigan State. He’s not used as a pass rusher, and this week his job will be to take on Silas Redd again and again. At a place known for its linebackers, David should stand out with at least 15 stops.

What Will Happen: It’s going to be very, very weird. No matter how it’s going to be spun and no matter what kind of a bow is put on it, the game is going to feel strange with emotions running high, but the Penn State players will come through with a focused, solid effort knowing that in many ways, this might be the season. Paterno is still revered, and the players will come up with a great performance inspired by the last week.

CFN Prediction: Penn State 17 - Nebraska 13

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ESPN Bloggers - http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten...big-ten-week-11

Adam Rittenberg: I would have picked Penn State before Wednesday night's news that JoePa is out. I actually like this matchup for the Nittany Lions, who have a front seven that can contain Nebraska and a running back (Silas Redd) who can attack the middle of the Huskers' defense. But it's just hard to see Penn State playing a focused 60 minutes of football after all that has happened. ... Nebraska 20 -Penn State 17

Brian Bennett: How can we predict what's going to happen in the first Penn State game in 46 years that Joe Pa won't serve as head coach? Lions players say they will block out the distractions, but I don't see how that's possible, especially as some of them were watching the demonstrations on the streets of downtown late Wednesday night. Give me the team that's had a normal week of preparation and which has an offense that's explosive enough behindTaylor Martinez to score on the Penn State 'D.' ... Nebraska 21 -Penn State 14

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Nebraska wins, I can't see a bad Penn State offense scoring 17. But stranger things have happened with our defense.

 
I ordinarily at least browse these predictions, but anyone who makes a prediction for this game is just foolish. This is one of the biggest scandals ever in sports, there is NO WAY anyone could predict how the PSU players are going to react. Too unprecedented.

 
I ordinarily at least browse these predictions, but anyone who makes a prediction for this game is just foolish. This is one of the biggest scandals ever in sports, there is NO WAY anyone could predict how the PSU players are going to react. Too unprecedented.
yeah no kidding. If I were a betting man(which Im not) I wouldnt touch this game 33ft pole.

 
Nebraska wins, I can't see a bad Penn State offense scoring 17. But stranger things have happened with our defense.
Our defense makes any offense look great. I wouldn't be surprised to see any amount of points put up against this Husker D; it is not good.

I honestly have no idea what will happen in this game. On one hand you can see how Penn St could be highly distracted but on the other hand I could see where the players believe they are backed into a corner and they come out and play hard.

Nebraska had an advantage last week in the title race against a weaker Northwestern team and blew it. How will they respond against Penn St? Who knows? This team is about as inconsistent of a team out there. No matter the result, I will have a strange, uneasy feeling watching the game.

 
The one big thing i'm worried about is if they decide to play Boldin alot. Bradley almost made it sound like at his preeser that they might be leaning towards Boldin more. And who can blame him with how bad their O has been.

Bad thing for us if they do decide to play Boldin more. Another mobile QB that Bo says we dont have problems defending. Sorry Bo, but i have to disagree.

 
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