Bowl prediction for Nebraska

JTrain said:
HuskerNationNick said:
IF there is a Pac 12 team in the top 14 BCS rankings, and Oregon makes it to the National Title, then that is whoever the B1G Conference Game will face. This has been discussed many times before on the board.
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Not true. The Rose Bowl can take any qualified team they want at that point.
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If the Pac 12 has another at-large team, then they will be playing in the Rose Bowl, read the rules. It states it, unless I am reading it wrong. All one team needs, is a 9 win season and top 14. If another Pac 12 team does this, besides Oregon, that is who will go to the Rose Bowl.

At-large eligibility

If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifiers, then the bowls will select at-large participants to fill the remaining berths. An at-large team is any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:

A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and

B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.

No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.

If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings, subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) If any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected, and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.
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3. If a bowl loses a host team to the NCG, then such bowl shall select a replacement team from among the automatic-qualifying teams and the at-large teams before any other selections are made. If two bowls lose host teams to the NCG, each bowl will get a replacement pick before any other selections are made. In such case, the bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick, and the bowl losing the No. 2 team gets the second replacement pick. If the Rose Bowl loses both the Big Ten and Pac-10 champions to the NCG, it will receive two replacement picks.
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NUandOU said:
whoa whoa whoa, hold your horses fellas, cart before the mule. 75% chances to play CC game and then 50/50 chance to beat the Badgers. Remember 2010 against Washington? I hate rematch. Last Saturday, Hoosiers fizzled and Meechickens Hail Mary pass......both bummers.

Anyway, I like NU vs. undefeated ND in Rose Bowl. Or else NU vs. Kittens.
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Totally different case here. We aren't facing a team that we totally dominated, and we aren't playing in a weak bowl game like two years ago. That game will be the decider on who goes to the BCS championship game.

 
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HuskerNationNick said:
NUandOU said:
whoa whoa whoa, hold your horses fellas, cart before the mule. 75% chances to play CC game and then 50/50 chance to beat the Badgers. Remember 2010 against Washington? I hate rematch. Last Saturday, Hoosiers fizzled and Meechickens Hail Mary pass......both bummers.

Anyway, I like NU vs. undefeated ND in Rose Bowl. Or else NU vs. Kittens.
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Totally different case here. We aren't facing a team that we totally dominated, and we aren't playing in a weak bowl game like two years ago. That game will be the decider on who goes to the BCS championship game.
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I hope so. I wish Minnesota and Iowa games will surrender right of the bat, you know lopsided scores like 35 to 3 and 38-7 at half time. Please no comebacks and preserve my ticker. Plus we need to rest T-Mart legs.

 
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NUandOU said:
whoa whoa whoa, hold your horses fellas, cart before the mule. 75% chances to play CC game and then 50/50 chance to beat the Badgers. Remember 2010 against Washington? I hate rematch. Last Saturday, Hoosiers fizzled and Meechickens Hail Mary pass......both bummers.

Anyway, I like NU vs. undefeated ND in Rose Bowl. Or else NU vs. Kittens.
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Often times rematches end up flip flopped because the team that won the 1st comes in a little less motivated, a little less prepared because they find a little less need for adjustments. Whereas the loser of the 1st comes in extremely motivated to prove that the 1st was a fluke. They review and make many adjustments. This situations are even tougher for teams that win the 1st by a blowout margin, for it makes them even less worried.

I feel this would be different in this situation. This Nebraska team is so hungry for a conference championship that it doesnt really matter who they are playing. Wisconsin may be motivated, but it will be no more that our Huskers. Nebraska also has the issue of knowing they squeeked out the 1st one and in all respect, maybe shouldve lost the thing completely. For multiple reasons, in my eyes, this game just would not fit the mold of your typical rematch scenario.

Wisconsin may have improved a bit, but so have we. Especially on the defense. Wisconsin better have a legitimate passing threat with Stave out, or I could see it playing out like the second half in Lincoln, with our D dominating. Wisconsins schedule has also been a lot easier. Their 2 conferecne losses are to us and Michigan St. They are yet to play Penn St and Ohio St. We will know more about them and their subjective improvement after these last two weeks.

What does make me a little nervous is if we do roll Minnesota and Iowa and this team starts getting the "we're world beaters" mentality. We have still not seen any evidence that we can handle great success through this string of comebacks. I would prefer one of these last two to be challenging games due to that aspect.

I would mostly prefer Minnesota be a little close and Iowa being the blowout. Because if we roll Minnesota I dont want to be taking Iowa lightly by any means. That will be their bowl game. And I want us to put that complete game together against the Hawkeyes so 1)we get that confidence that we can actually do it, and 2) we maybe get a chance to rest some key players for most of a blowout type win a week before the CCG.

 
HuskerNationNick said:
If the Pac 12 has another at-large team, then they will be playing in the Rose Bowl, read the rules. It states it, unless I am reading it wrong. All one team needs, is a 9 win season and top 14. If another Pac 12 team does this, besides Oregon, that is who will go to the Rose Bowl.
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Conference affiliation doesn't enter into the at-large pick, and the Rose Bowl isn't obligated to take a Pac-12 team, even if there's one in the at-large pool. Having said that, if there *is* a Pac-12 school in the at-large BCS pool, then the Rose Bowl may take that team because of tradition, but not because of any sort of obligation.

These 'what if' scenarios are all predicated on Oregon winning out though--if they lose a regular season game, but win the Pac-12 title, they're likely headed to the Rose Bowl. If Oregon loses the Pac-12 title game, then we're stuck playing whoever that is (likely a rematch with UCLA in this case). And if Oregon wins out, it's likely to be at the expense of any other Pac-12 team getting an at-large BCS bid.

 
Nick, you are reading it wrong. If any BCS bowl loses its conference champion tie-in, they can select any at-large team or automatic qualifier. Nowhere does it say there are conference restrictions to that.

 
HuskerNationNick said:
JTrain said:
HuskerNationNick said:
IF there is a Pac 12 team in the top 14 BCS rankings, and Oregon makes it to the National Title, then that is whoever the B1G Conference Game will face. This has been discussed many times before on the board.
Click to expand...
Not true. The Rose Bowl can take any qualified team they want at that point.
Click to expand...
If the Pac 12 has another at-large team, then they will be playing in the Rose Bowl, read the rules. It states it, unless I am reading it wrong. All one team needs, is a 9 win season and top 14. If another Pac 12 team does this, besides Oregon, that is who will go to the Rose Bowl.

At-large eligibility

If there are fewer than 10 automatic qualifiers, then the bowls will select at-large participants to fill the remaining berths. An at-large team is any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible and meets the following requirements:

A. Has won at least nine regular-season games, and

B. Is among the top 14 teams in the final BCS Standings.

No more than two teams from a conference may be selected, regardless of whether they are automatic qualifiers or at-large selections, unless two non-champions from the same conference are ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the final BCS Standings.

If fewer than 10 teams are eligible for selection, then the Bowls can select as an at-large team any Football Bowl Subdivision team that is bowl-eligible, has won at least nine regular-season games and is among the top 18 teams in the final BCS Standings, subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) If any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected, and (2) from the teams ranked 15-18, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.
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3. If a bowl loses a host team to the NCG, then such bowl shall select a replacement team from among the automatic-qualifying teams and the at-large teams before any other selections are made. If two bowls lose host teams to the NCG, each bowl will get a replacement pick before any other selections are made. In such case, the bowl losing the No. 1 team gets the first replacement pick, and the bowl losing the No. 2 team gets the second replacement pick. If the Rose Bowl loses both the Big Ten and Pac-10 champions to the NCG, it will receive two replacement picks.
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You are reading it wrong. That replacement team just has to be BCS eligible. Nowhere does this say the Rose must replace with a team from the same conference. Nowhere. This has also been discussed many times on this board. Myself and a couple others keep saying this, but you and a couple other different people just ignore it and keep saying the same incorrect thing and convince yourselves that the more you say it, the more true it is.

Now, if you want to say that the Rose WILL pick a Pac 12 team if one is eligible, that's a valid opinion. I still think they take a #3 unbeaten Notre Dame over a #14 multi-loss Pac 12 team, but that's just my opinion. I don't really know just how tied the Rose Bowl will feel towards taking a Pac 12 team, but this will be the ultimate test: the Big 10 rep will (hopefully) be a non-traditional Big 10 team; an undefeated big name team may be available; and the Pac 12 runner up could be pretty weak.

If it's ever to happen, this will be it. I believe the other times the Rose Bowl did not have a Big 10 Pac 10 matchup was either due to hosting the championship game, or being forced to take another team. In the 2002 season, the Orange snagged Iowa with the first replacement and with #2 Ohio St in the championship game, the Rose couldn't fill with a 3rd Big 10 team. In the 2004 season, Boise and Texas were both automatic at-large qualifiers, so the Rose could not take Stanford since there wasn't room for another at-large team in the bowls. And two years ago, TCU was forced on the Rose Bowl due to that once in 4 year rule where they had to take a non-AQ school team.

 
Stewart Mandel said:
For the Fiesta, replacing K-State with Notre Dame would be a no-brainer. With the Big 12 taking its future business to the Sugar Bowl, there would be no need to appease that conference and take one of its teams. But if Oregon wins out, it will likely rise to No. 1 in the BCS standings, giving the Rose Bowl first dibs. While that game is incredibly loyal to its partners, its lone Pac-12 options would likely be a three-loss Stanford or UCLA team. While it would not be an easy decision to buck tradition, the Tournament of Roses folks may ultimately not be able to pass up 12-0 or even 11-1 Notre Dame.
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http://sportsillustr...l#ixzz2C2o7xwiT

 
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Oregon will finish first in the BCS standings since their computer rankings are about to skyrocket with 3 ranked teams coming up, so the Rose Bowl will have first pick of the at large teams. I really doubt they pick a Pac 12 team:

Stanford is 13th, but will get stomped by Oregon and aren't be able to make it back to the top 14.

Oregon State is 16th, and will get beat by Oregon, so no way they make it back to the top 14

UCLA and USC are 17th/18th and play this weekend. Loser will be eliminated, winner still has to play at Oregon. Plus another potential loss as UCLA has to play Stanford, and USC has to play Notre Dame.

The odds are high that none of the 4 finish in the top 14, plus the Rose Bowl would have to be crazy to take a 14th ranked, 3-4 loss Pac 12 team over #3 undefeated Notre Dame (or even a top 10, one loss Notre Dame).

And should Kansas State fall in one of their last two games, and Notre Dame finishes #2, I'd expect Oklahoma to be picked to play in the Rose Bowl.

 
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I think the question is if KSU somehow manages to hold onto the #1 spot and the Fiesta with the first pick takes Notre Dame, does the the Rose choose Oklahoma over the Pac 12 runner up (but I don't think Oregon or KSU is going to lose so that probably won't even be a question)

 
I think we are all in agreement on the knowns. The unknown is how the Rose Bowl committee weighs conference affiliation vs $$$. (I think the Fiesta picks us 100% of the time because the rump Big12 is not going to raise a ruckus).

The Bowls don't want to lose the bowl system altogether. From last year's playoff talks, they realize that the Us could take over at any time. Therefore the committee has to weigh this year's budget vs the future of keeping university presidents, AD, and alumni happy.

So if the Rose Bowl did pick ND, it will have been because the Rose Bowl quietly talked things over with the PAC officials and got them to approve it for this year.

That's why it's easier on everyone if ND just goes to the BCS Championship Game.

 
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Good answer Joe, but I think Oregon and K State fans would disagree.

Just win out all three of you. Under no circumstance do I want a stinken SEC SEC SEC SEC SEC team in their. I almost puke everytime I hear that chant.

 
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