Barney Moving to TE Coach?

[The Screaming Pelini]

I'm not sure you are understanding the concept of percentages here.

No I definitely get it, you must not get it. Mathematically it is impossible for them to be more "successful". You are trying to skew the statistic by stating that they are more successful based on the percentage that get elected vs how many of them there actually are. But if you were to expand the statistic using that same logic, the five star recruits still make the Pro Bowl at a far less percentage. I couldn't give you the exact percentage because I don't know how many players have been given a recruiting ranking since 2002, nor do I care to that research. But again, that's why I based it off of available Pro Bowl spots. Four & five star recruits are not more successful, the percentage you are trying to get at would exemplify that, they are too outnumbered to be considered more "successful". Also, stop using the three star example, I never stated that specifically three stars are more successful,

 

[zoogs]

I'm pulling these numbers out of the air for purposes of illustration.

If 15% of 5-star recruits are 'successful'

5% of 4-star recruits are 'successful'

1% of 3-star recruits are 'successful'

Which group would you consider to be the most successful?

Mathematically?

 

[The Screaming Pelini]

I'm not sure you are understanding the concept of percentages here.

No I definitely get it, you must not get it. Mathematically it is impossible for them to be more "successful". You are trying to skew the statistic by stating that they are more successful based on the percentage that get elected vs how many of them there actually are. But if you were to expand the statistic using that same logic, the five star recruits still make the Pro Bowl at a far less percentage. I couldn't give you the exact percentage because I don't know how many players have been given a recruiting ranking since 2002, nor do I care to that research. But again, that's why I based it off of available Pro Bowl spots. Four & five star recruits are not more successful, the percentage you are trying to get at would exemplify that, they are too outnumbered to be considered more "successful". Also, stop using the three star example, I never stated that specifically three stars are more successful,

If group A has 320 and Group B has 520, who was more successful?

Mathematically?

 

[zoogs]

Speaking of skewing, you are really desperate to want your point to be the neutral, statistically sound one but it's simply not.

Group A has 30 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 15 of them make it.

Group B has 750 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 30 of them make it.

Take Group B if you're content with the mathematics.

 

[LumberJackSker]

Speaking of skewing, you are really desperate to want your point to be the neutral, statistically sound one but it's simply not.

Group A has 30 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 15 of them make it.

Group B has 750 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 30 of them make it.

Take Group B if you're content with the mathematics.

can i take option C?

 

[The Screaming Pelini]

Speaking of skewing, you are really desperate to want your point to be the neutral, statistically sound one but it's simply not.

Group A has 30 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 15 of them make it.

Group B has 750 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 30 of them make it.

Take Group B if you're content with the mathematics.

Uhm i believe you just made my point for me. The statistic shows that only 32 players ranked four or five stars have made the Pro Bowl. Again if every one of those players made the Pro Bowl all 10 years(which they did not) that would potentially be 320 of the 840 roster spots taken. Leaving 520 roster spots available for those not ranked four stars or more. 320 is 38% of 840. 520 is 62%. 62% of players ranked below 4 stars make the Pro Bowl, 38% of players ranked four stars or above make the Pro Bowl. Players ranked below four stars thus are more "successful". The number of four or five star recruits in high school is irrelevant to the matter because we are evaluating them after that rating. Get it? =]

 

[LumberJackSker]

Speaking of skewing, you are really desperate to want your point to be the neutral, statistically sound one but it's simply not.

Group A has 30 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 15 of them make it.

Group B has 750 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 30 of them make it.

Take Group B if you're content with the mathematics.

Uhm i believe you just made my point for me. The statistic shows that only 32 players ranked four or five stars have made the Pro Bowl. Again if every one of those players made the Pro Bowl all 10 years(which they did not) that would potentially be 320 of the 840 roster spots taken. Leaving 520 roster spots available for those not ranked four stars or more. 320 is 38% of 840. 520 is 62%. 62% of players ranked below 4 stars make the Pro Bowl, 38% of players ranked four stars or above make the Pro Bowl. Players ranked below four stars thus are more "successful". The number of four or five star recruits in high school is irrelevant to the matter because we are evaluating them after that rating. Get it? =]

i would think the number of 4+ star recruits in highschool matters since you guys are arguing about ratings they got in highschool

 

[The Screaming Pelini]

Speaking of skewing, you are really desperate to want your point to be the neutral, statistically sound one but it's simply not.

Group A has 30 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 15 of them make it.

Group B has 750 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 30 of them make it.

Take Group B if you're content with the mathematics.

Uhm i believe you just made my point for me. The statistic shows that only 32 players ranked four or five stars have made the Pro Bowl. Again if every one of those players made the Pro Bowl all 10 years(which they did not) that would potentially be 320 of the 840 roster spots taken. Leaving 520 roster spots available for those not ranked four stars or more. 320 is 38% of 840. 520 is 62%. 62% of players ranked below 4 stars make the Pro Bowl, 38% of players ranked four stars or above make the Pro Bowl. Players ranked below four stars thus are more "successful". The number of four or five star recruits in high school is irrelevant to the matter because we are evaluating them after that rating. Get it? =]

i would think the number of 4+ star recruits in highschool matters since you guys are arguing about ratings they got in highschool

Not true, the statement is that players rated below a four star have more success in the NFL vs their four and five star competitors, as evidenced by the Pro Bowl selections of the last 10 years. The fact that there were less four and five star recruits in high school is irrelevant and even if we take that stat in to account, a higher percentage of sub four star players still make the Pro Bowl. This isn't a hypothetical situation, I gave an actual figure and using that figure it is mathematically impossible for them to be more "successful".

 

[suigeneris]

This thread is starting to have a "Who's on First" quality.

 

[suigeneris]

Speaking of skewing, you are really desperate to want your point to be the neutral, statistically sound one but it's simply not.

Group A has 30 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 15 of them make it.

Group B has 750 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 30 of them make it.

Take Group B if you're content with the mathematics.

Uhm i believe you just made my point for me. The statistic shows that only 32 players ranked four or five stars have made the Pro Bowl. Again if every one of those players made the Pro Bowl all 10 years(which they did not) that would potentially be 320 of the 840 roster spots taken. Leaving 520 roster spots available for those not ranked four stars or more. 320 is 38% of 840. 520 is 62%. 62% of players ranked below 4 stars make the Pro Bowl, 38% of players ranked four stars or above make the Pro Bowl. Players ranked below four stars thus are more "successful". The number of four or five star recruits in high school is irrelevant to the matter because we are evaluating them after that rating. Get it? =]

i would think the number of 4+ star recruits in highschool matters since you guys are arguing about ratings they got in highschool

Not true, the statement is that players rated below a four star have more success in the NFL vs their four and five star competitors, as evidenced by the Pro Bowl selections of the last 10 years. The fact that there were less four and five star recruits in high school is irrelevant and even if we take that stat in to account, a higher percentage of sub four star players still make the Pro Bowl. This isn't a hypothetical situation, I gave an actual figure and using that figure it is mathematically impossible for them to be more "successful".

I think the point is an individual 4-star recruit is more likely to be selected than an individual 3-star recruit. Being ranked higher out of high school is correlated with better performance at the college and professional levels.

You're making a funny, right?

 

[The Screaming Pelini]

Speaking of skewing, you are really desperate to want your point to be the neutral, statistically sound one but it's simply not.

Group A has 30 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 15 of them make it.

Group B has 750 guys in it and you ask them to take a half court shot. 30 of them make it.

Take Group B if you're content with the mathematics.

Uhm i believe you just made my point for me. The statistic shows that only 32 players ranked four or five stars have made the Pro Bowl. Again if every one of those players made the Pro Bowl all 10 years(which they did not) that would potentially be 320 of the 840 roster spots taken. Leaving 520 roster spots available for those not ranked four stars or more. 320 is 38% of 840. 520 is 62%. 62% of players ranked below 4 stars make the Pro Bowl, 38% of players ranked four stars or above make the Pro Bowl. Players ranked below four stars thus are more "successful". The number of four or five star recruits in high school is irrelevant to the matter because we are evaluating them after that rating. Get it? =]

i would think the number of 4+ star recruits in highschool matters since you guys are arguing about ratings they got in highschool

Not true, the statement is that players rated below a four star have more success in the NFL vs their four and five star competitors, as evidenced by the Pro Bowl selections of the last 10 years. The fact that there were less four and five star recruits in high school is irrelevant and even if we take that stat in to account, a higher percentage of sub four star players still make the Pro Bowl. This isn't a hypothetical situation, I gave an actual figure and using that figure it is mathematically impossible for them to be more "successful".

I think the point is an individual 4-star recruit is more likely to be selected than an individual 3-star recruit. Being ranked higher out of high school is correlated to better performance at the college and professional levels.

You're making a funny, right?

No. Once again this isn't an opinion, only 32 players four stars or above have ever made the Pro Bowl. The fact that there are less of them at the high school level is irrelevant, there are supposed to be less of them. They are supposed to be the "best", yet based on the numbers, they make the pro bowl at a much lower percentage than players of a lesser ranking, it doesn't matter how many of them did not make it, only how many did make it. The recruiting rankings already rank the players within the class from one to five, no need for us to then take that number and break it down again. The Pro Bowl roster is made up of more sub 4 star players than it is four/five star players. That's a fact.

 

[zoogs]

Uhm i believe you just made my point for me. The statistic shows that only 32 players ranked four or five stars have made the Pro Bowl. Again if every one of those players made the Pro Bowl all 10 years(which they did not) that would potentially be 320 of the 840 roster spots taken. Leaving 520 roster spots available for those not ranked four stars or more. 320 is 38% of 840. 520 is 62%. 62% of players ranked below 4 stars make the Pro Bowl, 38% of players ranked four stars or above make the Pro Bowl. Players ranked below four stars thus are more "successful". The number of four or five star recruits in high school is irrelevant to the matter because we are evaluating them after that rating. Get it? =]

My goodness check your math, please. The statement in bold is incredibly wrong. Mathematically

Not trying to be a stickler here, but c'mon man. I won't argue the point that there are plenty of times when an unheralded recruit turns into a success story and we all love that.

 

[The Screaming Pelini]

Quite sure my math is just fine, but you are correct the statement is definitely wrong. The last 10 years the Pro Bowl has consisted of a much higher percentage of players below a four star rating than that. Seriously, if you don't believe me that's fine, you can look up all of this. But I'm not going to argue something that is a fact with you, go do the research you'll see exactly what I see, majority of the players in the Pro Bowl are in fact not a five star, or even a four star recruit.

I want the entire OLine to be walk- ons next year hahahah =]

 

[zoogs]

Your math is wrong. OK, one more time, I think it's important you get this.

62% of players ranked below 4 stars make the Pro Bowl, 38% of players ranked four stars or above make the Pro Bowl.

is not a correct statement. And it's not the same statement as

62% of Pro Bowl players were ranked 4 stars or below.

...which may be factual, but

1. isn't the same statement as the first one
   
2. doesn't offer any insights
   
3. is essentially the same thing as saying 'There are fewer 4+ stars than 3 stars or less.' Which is a trivial statement.
   

 

[NUance]

62% of players ranked below 4 stars make the Pro Bowl

Hahahaha! I'll bet 62% of players ranked below 4 stars don't even end up starting for their college team.