CFB Selection Committee Rankings (Updated 11/11)

man, get over the ucla/buffs game. that is not a worthy indictment of the committee. such an insignificant complaint, especially given that no system is perfect.

 
BigRedBuster said:
All very good points.


I have problem with the idea that some teams have "quality wins" so they are obviously placed better than teams that aren't perceived to have "quality wins" even though they have the same record.

These schedules are put in place years in advance. There is no way anyone can tell right now who is going to be considered a "quality win" 4-8 years from now when some of these games are announced. Programs change. Coaches change. Players change.

HOWEVER, if we are going to put so much weight on who has "quality wins" and who doesn't, there are some teams that have a way better chance of impressing everyone simply because of their schedule even before the season starts.

And, let's look how these "quality wins" are discussed. OK. we have a quality win over Miami. Does that mean we would be able to beat FSU which is probably the best team in their conference? Let's say instead of Miami, we played Georgia, South Carolina, Misouri...etc. If we beat them, does that mean we would be able to beat the top teams in their conferences?

Now, let's say we had Miami scheduled and all of a sudden last year, they fire their coach and go winless this year. Does that make us any worse than we are this year as a team?

Figure out who wins conferences, put those teams together in the playoffs and see who wins. This would lead to more conference pride and people rooting for their conferences.
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They could punish conferences that take out insurance on quality wins by scheduling UT-Martin instead of UNC. That means their conference matchups will feature more 5-1 and fewer 3-3.

 
sd'sker said:
man, get over the ucla/buffs game. that is not a worthy indictment of the committee. such an insignificant complaint, especially given that no system is perfect.
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I don't think we want the committee to be real sticklers and punitive about games where a lesser opponent is allowed to hang around longer than they should

 
Hi there, I was at this site a while back, wanted to come back and share this work: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/2014/11/college-football-math-destiny.html

I built a model based on what we've seen from the CFP committee, how they've ranked teams, how they've talked through their reasoning for ranking teams, and how they've responded to onfield events. So far it's fitting the first 3 weeks fairly well.

Based on that model, it looks like IF (that's a big if) Nebraska can win out the rest of their games, they'll have a really good chance to make the CFP. Over 80%. It's a big if, but it starts this weekend with your toughest remaining regular season game @Wisconsin. Then finishes with maybe a B1G title game? Good luck!

 
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actuarygambler said:
Hi there, I was at this site a while back, wanted to come back and share this work: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/2014/11/college-football-math-destiny.html

I built a model based on what we've seen from the CFP committee, how they've ranked teams, how they've talked through their reasoning for ranking teams, and how they've responded to onfield events. So far it's fitting the first 3 weeks fairly well.

Based on that model, it looks like IF (that's a big if) Nebraska can win out the rest of their games, they'll have a really good chance to make the CFP. Over 80%. It's a big if, but it starts this weekend with your toughest remaining regular season game @Wisconsin. Then finishes with maybe a B1G title game? Good luck!
Click to expand...
Yet, earlier in the week you posted this entry: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_22.html

(as instructed, click on the gray box and type Nebraska)

which says Nebraska's chances of winning out are 22.9%, and their chances of making the CFP is 8.9%. 8.9/22.9 is nowhere close to 85%. That doesn't give me much faith in whatever system or methodology you are using.

 
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VA Husker Fan said:
actuarygambler said:
Hi there, I was at this site a while back, wanted to come back and share this work: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/2014/11/college-football-math-destiny.html

I built a model based on what we've seen from the CFP committee, how they've ranked teams, how they've talked through their reasoning for ranking teams, and how they've responded to onfield events. So far it's fitting the first 3 weeks fairly well.

Based on that model, it looks like IF (that's a big if) Nebraska can win out the rest of their games, they'll have a really good chance to make the CFP. Over 80%. It's a big if, but it starts this weekend with your toughest remaining regular season game @Wisconsin. Then finishes with maybe a B1G title game? Good luck!
Click to expand...
Yet, earlier in the week you posted this entry: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_22.html

(as instructed, click on the gray box and type Nebraska)

which says Nebraska's chances of winning out are 22.9%, and their chances of making the CFP is 8.9%. 8.9/22.9 is nowhere close to 85%. That doesn't give me much faith in whatever system or methodology you are using.
Click to expand...
8.9% chance of making the playoffs based on where things currently stand today, and perceived ability to win out.

85% chance of making the playoffs if they actually do win out.

 
hskrpwr13 said:
VA Husker Fan said:
actuarygambler said:
Hi there, I was at this site a while back, wanted to come back and share this work: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/2014/11/college-football-math-destiny.html

I built a model based on what we've seen from the CFP committee, how they've ranked teams, how they've talked through their reasoning for ranking teams, and how they've responded to onfield events. So far it's fitting the first 3 weeks fairly well.

Based on that model, it looks like IF (that's a big if) Nebraska can win out the rest of their games, they'll have a really good chance to make the CFP. Over 80%. It's a big if, but it starts this weekend with your toughest remaining regular season game @Wisconsin. Then finishes with maybe a B1G title game? Good luck!
Click to expand...
Yet, earlier in the week you posted this entry: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_22.html

(as instructed, click on the gray box and type Nebraska)

which says Nebraska's chances of winning out are 22.9%, and their chances of making the CFP is 8.9%. 8.9/22.9 is nowhere close to 85%. That doesn't give me much faith in whatever system or methodology you are using.
Click to expand...
8.9% chance of making the playoffs based on where things currently stand today, and perceived ability to win out.

85% chance of making the playoffs if they actually do win out.
Click to expand...
I see now that he is giving us a 22.9% chance of winning out in the regular season alone. Cut that roughly in half to win the B1G CCG, and multiply by 85% and it comes out to an 8.9% of making the playoffs, because we have about an 11% chance of running the table. Note that he gives us a 40% chance of winning tomorrow.

So what he's saying is that our biggest obstacle by far of making the playoffs is to win out. If we do, chances are very good that enough other things will fall into place for us to make it, but there's a 15% chance we still don't make it.

I might argue a few % points here or there, but overall I'll buy it.

 
hskrpwr13 said:
VA Husker Fan said:
actuarygambler said:
Hi there, I was at this site a while back, wanted to come back and share this work: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/2014/11/college-football-math-destiny.html

I built a model based on what we've seen from the CFP committee, how they've ranked teams, how they've talked through their reasoning for ranking teams, and how they've responded to onfield events. So far it's fitting the first 3 weeks fairly well.

Based on that model, it looks like IF (that's a big if) Nebraska can win out the rest of their games, they'll have a really good chance to make the CFP. Over 80%. It's a big if, but it starts this weekend with your toughest remaining regular season game @Wisconsin. Then finishes with maybe a B1G title game? Good luck!
Click to expand...
Yet, earlier in the week you posted this entry: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_22.html

(as instructed, click on the gray box and type Nebraska)

which says Nebraska's chances of winning out are 22.9%, and their chances of making the CFP is 8.9%. 8.9/22.9 is nowhere close to 85%. That doesn't give me much faith in whatever system or methodology you are using.
Click to expand...
8.9% chance of making the playoffs based on where things currently stand today, and perceived ability to win out.

85% chance of making the playoffs if they actually do win out.
Click to expand...
VA Husker Fan said:
actuarygambler said:
Hi there, I was at this site a while back, wanted to come back and share this work: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/2014/11/college-football-math-destiny.html

I built a model based on what we've seen from the CFP committee, how they've ranked teams, how they've talked through their reasoning for ranking teams, and how they've responded to onfield events. So far it's fitting the first 3 weeks fairly well.

Based on that model, it looks like IF (that's a big if) Nebraska can win out the rest of their games, they'll have a really good chance to make the CFP. Over 80%. It's a big if, but it starts this weekend with your toughest remaining regular season game @Wisconsin. Then finishes with maybe a B1G title game? Good luck!
Click to expand...
Yet, earlier in the week you posted this entry: http://actuarygambler.blogspot.com/p/blog-page_22.html

(as instructed, click on the gray box and type Nebraska)

which says Nebraska's chances of winning out are 22.9%, and their chances of making the CFP is 8.9%. 8.9/22.9 is nowhere close to 85%. That doesn't give me much faith in whatever system or methodology you are using.
Click to expand...
Thanks, it's a good observation. The 22.9% number you're citing is Nebraska's chance to win every remaining regular season game - it doesn't include the B1G conf championship game, which is definitely something I should be clearer about. But they're around 50/50 to win the b1g title game as a 1 loss team; if you add that into the calculations you're doing it adds up.

 
All the bellyaching in this thread all week about dropping a couple spots was time well spent, eh?

 
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