Nebraska Toss Up Games in 2015

[alwayshusking]

The Wisconsin game dynamic has completely changed now that we have a defense that is built to stop the run first and foremost. We aren't trotting out the 100th ranked run defense like in the Pelini era. We have a great shot to win that game, I think we win at home.

Take away Wisky run game and they fall apart. They have little talent on the perimeter or at QB.

Haven't we been saying this same thing since joining the Big 10? How well has that gone for us? (Gordon just ran another 100)

Bo never took it away. Bo's run defenses were pathetic, that's the point. The same reason a lesser Minnesota team ran it down our throats the last two seasons as well.

How exactly do you know that our defense is fixed though and aren't trotting out the 100th ranked rush defense? I haven't seen any proof of this yet. I don't think it was just "Bo's defense". It was the lack of speed, athleticism and guys simply not playing their position the way they were suppose to. Bo's fault for guys not being prepared and not having the right technique, but let's not jump the gun and say its fixed or say where they will not be ranked.

The scheme. We will be running a similar version to Michigan State's scheme, which is hell bent on stopping the run first. Everything about the scheme makes it easier on the DL and LBs to stop the run. Bo's defenses were always built to defend the pass which didn't help much vs Wisconsin or Minnesota. We had 4 DL last year who will likely be drafted and we couldn't stop the run due to Bo's scheme and coaching. A change in coaching will make a world of difference here.

We won't have our DL standing straight up at the snap trying to read and choose a gap.

I'm not saying we'll have a top 5 run defense next year, but it will be much improved. It's the easiest improvement that can be made by the new staff imo.

 

[alwayshusking]

Just looking through some old stats vs Wisconsin. We gave up 10.8 ypc in the CCG to Wisky and 11 ypc last year. Highest marks in both of those years for Wisky, and probably records for their program. Bo shouldn't have been given a ride home from Madison last year. Holy cow.

FCS teams did a better job vs the run against Wisky.

 

[cg_8]

How exactly do you know that our defense is fixed though and aren't trotting out the 100th ranked rush defense? I haven't seen any proof of this yet. I don't think it was just "Bo's defense". It was the lack of speed, athleticism and guys simply not playing their position the way they were suppose to. Bo's fault for guys not being prepared and not having the right technique, but let's not jump the gun and say its fixed or say where they will not be ranked.

The scheme. We will be running a similar version to Michigan State's scheme, which is hell bent on stopping the run first. Everything about the scheme makes it easier on the DL and LBs to stop the run. Bo's defenses were always built to defend the pass which didn't help much vs Wisconsin or Minnesota. We had 4 DL last year who will likely be drafted and we couldn't stop the run due to Bo's scheme and coaching. A change in coaching will make a world of difference here.

We won't have our DL standing straight up at the snap trying to read and choose a gap.

I'm not saying we'll have a top 5 run defense next year, but it will be much improved. It's the easiest improvement that can be made by the new staff imo.

MSU's defense, which runs a Quarters base D, is a numbers game that has the potential to have 8-9 guys in the box on every play while simultaneously being in pass coverage. The last time MSU played Wisconsin, they held Wisconsin to 19 rush yards on 37 attempts. That's 0.5 ypc.

Our defense, which we haven't seen much of in real competition, is supposed to be similar. Quarters base. It has the potential to be better at run D.

Bo's match zone D (whatever you want to call it), had consistently had problems in the run game. As it showed in numerous games, and those who watch the game with a keen eye know that we never switched coverages. It always came down to one guy being in the right hole. If that guy wasn't in the right hole, or misses his tackle, the RB is gone.

This is all based on potential of the scheme and how well it's coached. It should be noted that Oregon State held Wisconsin to 35 yards in the same year.

This is the 2012 team that had Montee Ball who rushed for 1800+ yards that season and had 22 rushing TD's. The same team that we allowed 539 rushing yards in one game.

We don't know whether the scheme will be better. Nor do we know if it will be well coached. However, with historical data like that, and the fact that numbers games (8-9 in the box) seem to find a way to work (VT's "Bear Package" was pretty much the only reason VT beat OSU this year) is what makes a lot of us think our Run D will be better.

 

[zoogs]

Sam McKewon thinks Wisconsin should be a W for us on the basis of the coaches being familiar with defending that kind of team. I thought that was interesting, given our recent history. He also cited concerns about Illinois and their scheme...which again, given recent history, seemed curious.

Okay, overall, we are kinda high on the talent level of Nebraska. It's true that we have a lot of players who have good promise, but it seems like we're maybe a little more kool-aid-y than we should be for a 9-4 team that fired its coach and is changing schemes on both sides of the ball, as well as reshaping program culture.

It probably shouldn't be surprising if games like Iowa and Minnesota are very tight and competitive. Hopefully that doesn't continue for too long, if it even happens this year.

 

[alwayshusking]

Sam McKewon thinks Wisconsin should be a W for us on the basis of the coaches being familiar with defending that kind of team. I thought that was interesting, given our recent history. He also cited concerns about Illinois and their scheme...which again, given recent history, seemed curious.

It's exactly how I feel. We match up better defensively now against Wisconsin and Minny. We are more vulnerable to offenses with QBs that can throw like Illinois (assuming Lunt stays healthy).

The pass defense will put more pressure on our CBs than Bo's defense where they usually had safety help over the top. They will frequently be on an island on their 1/4 of the field. They'll need help from the pass rush, where we don't have a proven pass rusher as of now. I expect more blitzing bc of this.

 

[Sargon]

The deal isnt covering a 35 point spread

To think we are even talking about NU getting pummelled by Wisconsin by 35-50 pts is rather revealing itself

The deal is can we win this game

Looking at what they have coming back and what we have coming back and then looking at both teams and a Wisconsin team that is changing little with a 1,000 yard rusher back and whose strength on Defense is what we will be trying to exploit.

That is in no way a toss up game

We stand very little to no chance of picking up a win there.

Very little to no chance of beating Wisky eh? So, what exactly is the chance? 4%? 10?

 

[HuskerNationNick]

The deal isnt covering a 35 point spread

To think we are even talking about NU getting pummelled by Wisconsin by 35-50 pts is rather revealing itself

The deal is can we win this game

Looking at what they have coming back and what we have coming back and then looking at both teams and a Wisconsin team that is changing little with a 1,000 yard rusher back and whose strength on Defense is what we will be trying to exploit.

That is in no way a toss up game

We stand very little to no chance of picking up a win there.

Very little to no chance of beating Wisky eh? So, what exactly is the chance? 4%? 10?

Until I see an absolute improvement, from this defense and offense, I say we have a 25% chance. That is as of right now. Riley didn't have a great SOS last year, and he didn't net a top 50 rush defense last year, and was even worse than us the previous year. I am PRAYING to be completely wrong and this staff can put together a great team, but I am not holding my breathe. I strongly believe that Paul Chryst is a better coach than Anderson as well.

 

[Saunders]

The deal isnt covering a 35 point spread

To think we are even talking about NU getting pummelled by Wisconsin by 35-50 pts is rather revealing itself

The deal is can we win this game

Looking at what they have coming back and what we have coming back and then looking at both teams and a Wisconsin team that is changing little with a 1,000 yard rusher back and whose strength on Defense is what we will be trying to exploit.

That is in no way a toss up game

We stand very little to no chance of picking up a win there.

Nebraska lost to Okalhoma 62-28 in 2008 only to win 10-3 in 2009. That's a 6 touchdown swing.

Nebraska beat Wisconsin 30-27 in October 2012, and lost 70-31 in December 2012. That's a 6 touchdown swing.

Keep reminding us that year to year or game to game changes don't matter and how a win is impossible though.

 

[jmfb]

To think that NU will win the Wisconsin game because of a yet to be proven defensive "facemelter" scheme is a bit much

Oregon States defenses of late havent been much to brag about. The DC was on the hotseat there by many accounts

Wisconisn has dominated NU of late, lots of big blowouts

Just because its the "Home opener for conference games and we will have a lot to play for this game" means so very little. This team has had a lot to play for and at home and got blown out in the past- with regularity.

Scheme is such a small part of the equation

Im more concerned about:

Discipline, Basic Fundamentals, Focus, Base Execution, Everyone getting on same page, Ball Security

Without those, scheme means very little. If my kids cant get the above right, scheme matters little and this is an unproven scheme with this group of kids.

The author of that blog says NU should win them all, that is crazy talk reserved for 9 year old kids, who are allowed to say such things due to the privilege of youth

Beating Wisconsin will be a long shot at best, but that's why they play the games.

I hope we win, however expect not to be favored and to lose

Everyone is talking about NUs defense here, but look at the defenses OSU produced of late

How are we going to score consistently? Wisconsin has 8 guys back including all of a top secondary. If we end up being the OSU pass first, offense many expect to see with Tommy at the helm, it could be a very long day for our offense.

 

[Redux]

Cant concur with your friend

Iowa and Northwestern with NU isnt in the gimmie folder

Yes Miami he has about right

Us beating Wisconsin- not happening

Overly optimistic about MSU and Minny. The MSU game wasnt as close as score said last year.

It's an 7-6 to 9-4 season

NU isnt going undefeated

I care little about "in game adjustments" right now and much more about mental toughness, culture and discipline

How is Nebraska beating Wisconsin "not happening"
The game is at home. Wisconsin lost there stud RB. They have a new coach as well.

I think it is the definition of a toss up game.

MSU beats Nebraska, me thinks.

Minnesota will be VERY tough.

Miami played us close last year, but i think they are so poorly coached that we can win.

New coach. new team.. dont know what to expect.

Wisconsin beat NU by 35 points- could have been more if they wanted it. Took starters out late 3rd quarter. Keep starters in- they win by 50++Is NU 50 points better than last year? No

Wisconsin has 1,000 yard rusher back- Gordon wasnt their whole team

We are much worse off losing Ameer, than they are for losing Gordon- not even close

They have 8 returners back on D including all of very tough secondary

Last time Wisconsin changed coaches, they didnt miss a beat and this guy is a Wisconsin guy

The writer suggesting we will win all our games is laughable IMO

NU will be very fortunate to play MSU even close. Great fundamental team, well coached, Great D, GREAT QB

Minny has identity, kids play hard, well coached, very possible 3 wins in a row, They are over the hump of not knowing how to win. Our new D scheme helps us against this team, but Kills gets the most out of the little talent he has.

BYU and Miami could go either way. If nothing really odd happens we probably go 1-1 in that one

Riley and NU have consistently lost one they shouldnt so a Northwestern/Iowa/Illinois could very likely take one from us

I think you underestimate the impact of both teams having new coaches. I think you underestimate our talent under an experienced staff. I think you underestimate our home field advantage and dislike for Wisconsin.

And where in the article did it say we would go undefeated? Did you even finish it?

 

[Redux]

To think that NU will win the Wisconsin game because of a yet to be proven defensive "facemelter" scheme is a bit much

Oregon States defenses of late havent been much to brag about. The DC was on the hotseat there by many accounts

Wisconisn has dominated NU of late, lots of big blowouts

Just because its the "Home opener for conference games and we will have a lot to play for this game" means so very little. This team has had a lot to play for and at home and got blown out in the past- with regularity. [/size]

Scheme is such a small part of the equation[/size]

Im more concerned about:[/size]

Discipline, Basic Fundamentals, Focus, Base Execution, Everyone getting on same page, Ball Security[/size]

Without those, scheme means very little. If my kids cant get the above right, scheme matters little and this is an unproven scheme with this group of kids. [/size]

The author of that blog says NU should win them all, that is crazy talk reserved for 9 year old kids, who are allowed to say such things due to the privilege of youth

Beating Wisconsin will be a long shot at best, but that's why they play the games.

I hope we win, however expect not to be favored and to lose

Everyone is talking about NUs defense here, but look at the defenses OSU produced of late

How are we going to score consistently? Wisconsin has 8 guys back including all of a top secondary. If we end up being the OSU pass first, offense many expect to see with Tommy at the helm, it could be a very long day for our offense.

With the right coaching, Nebraska SHOULD win every game. You would say the same about Alabama.

Nobody said beating Wisconsin would be easy, but to say it is impossible is just silly. For all your knowledge of the game you seem to lack the basic concept of chance. Any team can be beaten on any day. We have found that out the very hard way for 7 years now.

Just because Jen Bielma's meal ticket and Gary Anderson had Bo Pelini's number, does not mean squat when Mike Riley hosts Pitt's leftovers.

 

[Saunders]

Cant concur with your friend

Iowa and Northwestern with NU isnt in the gimmie folder

Yes Miami he has about right

Us beating Wisconsin- not happening

Overly optimistic about MSU and Minny. The MSU game wasnt as close as score said last year.

It's an 7-6 to 9-4 season

NU isnt going undefeated

I care little about "in game adjustments" right now and much more about mental toughness, culture and discipline

How is Nebraska beating Wisconsin "not happening"
The game is at home. Wisconsin lost there stud RB. They have a new coach as well.

I think it is the definition of a toss up game.

MSU beats Nebraska, me thinks.

Minnesota will be VERY tough.

Miami played us close last year, but i think they are so poorly coached that we can win.

New coach. new team.. dont know what to expect.

Wisconsin beat NU by 35 points- could have been more if they wanted it. Took starters out late 3rd quarter. Keep starters in- they win by 50++Is NU 50 points better than last year? No

Wisconsin has 1,000 yard rusher back- Gordon wasnt their whole team

We are much worse off losing Ameer, than they are for losing Gordon- not even close

They have 8 returners back on D including all of very tough secondary

Last time Wisconsin changed coaches, they didnt miss a beat and this guy is a Wisconsin guy

The writer suggesting we will win all our games is laughable IMO

NU will be very fortunate to play MSU even close. Great fundamental team, well coached, Great D, GREAT QB

Minny has identity, kids play hard, well coached, very possible 3 wins in a row, They are over the hump of not knowing how to win. Our new D scheme helps us against this team, but Kills gets the most out of the little talent he has.

BYU and Miami could go either way. If nothing really odd happens we probably go 1-1 in that one

Riley and NU have consistently lost one they shouldnt so a Northwestern/Iowa/Illinois could very likely take one from us

I think you underestimate the impact of both teams having new coaches. I think you underestimate our talent under an experienced staff. I think you underestimate our home field advantage and dislike for Wisconsin.

And where in the article did it say we would go undefeated? Did you even finish it?

This is important. Riley should be an upgrade at HC. Chryst is not an upgrade over Anderson.

 

[NUinID]

To think that NU will win the Wisconsin game because of a yet to be proven defensive "facemelter" scheme is a bit much

Oregon States defenses of late havent been much to brag about. The DC was on the hotseat there by many accounts

Wisconisn has dominated NU of late, lots of big blowouts

Just because its the "Home opener for conference games and we will have a lot to play for this game" means so very little. This team has had a lot to play for and at home and got blown out in the past- with regularity.

Scheme is such a small part of the equation

Im more concerned about:

Discipline, Basic Fundamentals, Focus, Base Execution, Everyone getting on same page, Ball Security

Without those, scheme means very little. If my kids cant get the above right, scheme matters little and this is an unproven scheme with this group of kids.

The author of that blog says NU should win them all, that is crazy talk reserved for 9 year old kids, who are allowed to say such things due to the privilege of youth

Beating Wisconsin will be a long shot at best, but that's why they play the games.

I hope we win, however expect not to be favored and to lose

Everyone is talking about NUs defense here, but look at the defenses OSU produced of late

How are we going to score consistently? Wisconsin has 8 guys back including all of a top secondary. If we end up being the OSU pass first, offense many expect to see with Tommy at the helm, it could be a very long day for our offense.

It is all about scheme. BP run fits were complicated to say the least. He refused to commit to stopping the run against teams that run the ball great and have below average passing games. His run defense put too much pressure on the safeties to be in the right place all the time. If they were late because they were worrying about the six other reads that had to make then it breaks down. if they got caught up in the wash they got burned.

Run defense sometimes is simply about having equal number or superior numbers committed to stopping the run. That was BP fatal flaw he felt so strongly that his style was superior that he refused to adjust. He was so worried about having sound pass defense that he was willing to be unsound against the run. Because he felt if everyone did things exactly like they were suppose to than he would be fine stopping the run. That may happen for a while, but not over the coarse of a whole game against a great running team like Whisky or Minnesota.

Did you watch the Wisconsin/Minnesota game? I did, both teams literally had all 11 guys within 7 yards of the LOS on every play that was not a sure passing down. Most the time they had 8-9 in the box.

Wisconsin's coaches had to look at film of Nebraska and say there is no way they are going to play us this way. This will be too easy. Guess what, it was too easy.

I don't know if NU's new scheme will allow them to beat Wisconsin or Minnesota, but I am pretty sure they are going to really commit to stopping the run.

 

[Sargon]

Beating Wisconsin will be a long shot at best, but that's why they play the games.

I hope we win, however expect not to be favored and to lose

Define "long shot" numerically.

 

[Scratchtown]

I didn't read the OP's article, or most of the replies.

However the toss up games for me are every single game with the exception of South Alabama and Southern Miss.

We have NO idea how this team will come out and look week to week. We have no accurate picture to look at from Oregon State history with Riley considering the athlete/resource difference.