BTN Analysts on Armstrong

[True2tRA]

If you would like to have a rational discussion, I'd be happy to continue.

Because "what happened to admitting you were wrong" wasn't played like a card you've been holding up your sleeve? Especially after I conceded two posts above that my stance may have been exaggerated? You come off as a smug arrogant SOB to me constantly as if you only try to disagree with every point I ever make even if it means contradicting the very same points you've made in the past.

So I ask, if the team is as talented as you've seen, you stand by Tim Beck as an offensive coordinator, the offenive line was much better than they've been credited for, then again.....you lay it at Tommy's feet then? Again, the defense was trash, but I watched an offense that struggled to sustain drives. An offense that struggled against reasonable competition, and even then was a play away from losing to McNeese State. So again.....I'd like you to clarify. You never have been a fan of Armstrong. You must truly believe that he is the reason to blame for the struggles then with all things said.

 

[huskerfan333157]

Somehow I doubt you watched a lot of Penn State games to be able to say that with much authority. I know I didn't.

If you have a better stat to compare them with, I'd love to see it. TA may have avoided sacks with his legs but Hackenburg may have thrown away more passes when he should have. Sacks is an imperfect stat for comparison but it gives you a pretty good idea.

Here you go.http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaol

Adjusted Line Yards - NU #11 - PSU #111Standard Down Line Yards per Carry - NU #24 - PSU #125

Pass Downs Line Yards per Carry - NU #21 - PSU #120

Opportunity Rate - NU #31 - PSU #124

Power Success Rate - NU #58 - PSU #101

Stuff Rate - NU #28 - PSU #125

Adjusted Sack Rate - NU #63 - PSU #101

Standard Downs Sack Rate - NU #91 - PSU #83

Passing Downs Sack Rate - NU #38 - PSU #121

Husker Average: #40; PSU: #112

Husker Run Blocking Average: #28; PSU: #117

Husker Sack Rate Average: #63: PSU: #101

So the numbers clearly show that NU's offensive line was MUCH better overall. The pass-blocking numbers were closer but NU still have a decided advantage.

And our run blocking was actually significantly better than I would imagine most would give us credit for.

Wow! Now our offensive line wasn't that bad either? Man, it really is ALL TOMMY'S FAULT! I mean, here's Kenny Bell, Ameer Abdullah, and the Wizard of OZ Tim Beck all at NU's disposal and TOMMY ARMSTRONG can't pull his head out of his a$$ long enough to move this offense along.

I guess I'm the only one who watched missed assignments, unfinished blocks, patty cake blocking, standing and spectating, getting overpowered, and even a guy getting blown over by the wind. Nope, the stats say it, NEBRASKA'S OFFENSIVE LINE IS CLEARLY NOT AN ISSUE.

You were stating that Penn state's offensive line wasn't as bad as nebraska's yet you got proved wrong by statistics. You were insinuating hackenburg was overrated without looking at how bad his offensive line ranked. When a poster brought up the offensive line comment then you were insinuating that nebraskas oline was just as bad as Penn states. Now you're turning this around and saying that fellow husker poster's are saying that Armstrong isn't very good which isn't the case. From what I'm seeing it seems as if people are saying hackenburg is a good qb (hence the first round projection) but his offensive line has been letting him down.

 

[zoogs]

I think Husker fans tend to be higher on Tommy because he's so eminently likable. And I get that; I really like him, too. His toughness and leadership can't be overstated.

That said, he's going to be asked to do some different things this year.

Last year I could really see some hope for him as a strong-armed running QB who kept defenses honest by stretching the field with our fast WRs (mostly Kenny Bell) and operated an effective ground game with plenty of zone read and plenty of option. That didn't really materialize, especially if it's true that we didn't do much actual reading (we certainly didn't do much option, and Ameer's own heroics seemed more key than Tommy's operation of the attack). As a passer, he rarely forced defenses to stay honest, and missed way too many easy throws by way too much.

Look, if anyone can emerge a transformed player this year, it's him. The sky can be the limit. Let's just not put the cart before the horse.

 

[True2tRA]

Somehow I doubt you watched a lot of Penn State games to be able to say that with much authority. I know I didn't.

If you have a better stat to compare them with, I'd love to see it. TA may have avoided sacks with his legs but Hackenburg may have thrown away more passes when he should have. Sacks is an imperfect stat for comparison but it gives you a pretty good idea.

Here you go.http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaol

Adjusted Line Yards - NU #11 - PSU #111Standard Down Line Yards per Carry - NU #24 - PSU #125

Pass Downs Line Yards per Carry - NU #21 - PSU #120

Opportunity Rate - NU #31 - PSU #124

Power Success Rate - NU #58 - PSU #101

Stuff Rate - NU #28 - PSU #125

Adjusted Sack Rate - NU #63 - PSU #101

Standard Downs Sack Rate - NU #91 - PSU #83

Passing Downs Sack Rate - NU #38 - PSU #121

Husker Average: #40; PSU: #112

Husker Run Blocking Average: #28; PSU: #117

Husker Sack Rate Average: #63: PSU: #101

So the numbers clearly show that NU's offensive line was MUCH better overall. The pass-blocking numbers were closer but NU still have a decided advantage.

And our run blocking was actually significantly better than I would imagine most would give us credit for.

Wow! Now our offensive line wasn't that bad either? Man, it really is ALL TOMMY'S FAULT! I mean, here's Kenny Bell, Ameer Abdullah, and the Wizard of OZ Tim Beck all at NU's disposal and TOMMY ARMSTRONG can't pull his head out of his a$$ long enough to move this offense along.I guess I'm the only one who watched missed assignments, unfinished blocks, patty cake blocking, standing and spectating, getting overpowered, and even a guy getting blown over by the wind. Nope, the stats say it, NEBRASKA'S OFFENSIVE LINE IS CLEARLY NOT AN ISSUE.

You were stating that Penn state's offensive line wasn't as bad as nebraska's yet you got proved wrong by statistics. You were insinuating hackenburg was overrated without looking at how bad his offensive line ranked. When a poster brought up the offensive line comment then you were insinuating that nebraskas oline was just as bad as Penn states. Now you're turning this around and saying that fellow husker poster's are saying that Armstrong isn't very good which isn't the case. From what I'm seeing it seems as if people are saying hackenburg is a good qb (hence the first round projection) but his offensive line has been letting him down.

1. No. I said they were both bad.2. No. I never once said Hackenburg was over-rated. I said he and Tommy are two different QB's with two different styles. Sack numbers could be attributed to how the defenses attack the two.

3. I've debated Armstrong's abilities with Mavric many times on this board. Just because you don't see his feelings in this conversation does'nt mean he hasn't stated them. Mavrics comment was a roundabout way of saying Tommy doesn't have the same excuse for a lackluter performance like Hackenburg. I disagree. Mavric and I also disagree about Armstrong. Mavric has said before he has doubts about Tommy's abilities. I believe Tommy has all the tools to be successful (a touch pass aside) I think he's been lacking direction and coaching to help him take the next step. No excuses this year.

4. Tommy is not projected to be a big time NFL draft pick like Hackenburg. This is true That doesn't mean that both of their offensive lines haven't been helping their cases. I stand by what I said. I don't think either one has been playing behind very good offensive lines.

 

[HuskermanMike]

I think Tommy is better than stave and he is the best in the west. Staves best year was last year(2013) where he threw for 2494 yards but had Jared Abbrederis make up about 40 percent of his total yards. This may or may not be a good comparison since Stave sat the first five game, he threw for 1350 yards, but tommy threw more yards(2695) and threw 53.3 percent on the season. Stave threw 53.4 but had less games so he could have done better or worse. Tommy has a better receiving core and will most likely throw the ball more than Stave and Wisconsin and so I say Tommy will be better and is better based on stats with potential for 2015 as a factor as well.

 

[HuskerExpat]

Did Tim Beck even have any swing passes in his playbook? Or conventional screen passes, or bootleg passing plays that could be converted into running plays if no receiver was open? There certainly weren't any conventional play action pass plays since the QB never took the snap from under center. Not having a complete playbook (like those sort of plays) is the biggest issue I had with Tim Beck. When our O line was decimated by injury the natural response to that is a bootleg or conventional screen pass, but we didn't even have those plays in the playbook....

Swing pass at 0:24

Fair enough. I guess my issue with Beck was, like with many people, play calling...

 

[ADS]

So, my top seven:

1. Ohio State;

2. Connor Cook of Michigan State;

3. Christian Hackenberg of Penn State;

4. Stave; 5. Armstrong;

6. Nate Sudfeld of Indiana;

7. Wes Lunt of Illinois.

Anyone else think Hackenberg is overrated? Heck, Tommy is known as a running QB, but his passing stats compare pretty well with Hackenpick:

2014

Hackenburg: 56% completion for 2977 yds, 12 TDs and 15 int.

Tommie: 53% completion for 2695, 22 TDs and 12 int.

I dot think he's overrated. Just put in a situation with a terrible offensive line, below average receivers, and a brand new system he's still learning.

 

[Landlord]

Is True drunk?

 

[Enhance]

First, a question - can anyone show me a quote or proof that zone-reads were pre-determined before the snap of the ball? I'm not asking this to be argumentative - I'm asking because people seem to argue both sides - that the reads were and they weren't. Is it all just speculation either way?

In regards to the offensive line, they were average to above average during the Pelini tenure. The good rushing numbers we put out are evidence that they could be good, so, the line wasn't bad. The lines and the backs go hand-in-hand to an extent, but, I would say AA's ability definitely transcended that of the o-line. He had to dodge a lot of tackles in the backfield and make something out of nothing a lot, probably a bit more than he should have. And I for one heard plenty of former offensive linemen from Nebraska comment throughout the season last year that our line lacked good fundamentals and technique.

We also had a lot of recruiting and developmental woes along the lines. We had some decommits or misses, some guys lost to injury and some guys who just never really developed. How many people were in the boat with me that thought A-Rod had the tools/potential to be All-Conference? I know I did, and that never really proved to be the case. If these types of decommits, injuries, lack of depth, etc. happen occasionally, that's one thing. But, over a seven year period, that's a recruiting/coaching trend that needs to be fixed IMHO.

 

[Mavric]

First, a question - can anyone show me a quote or proof that zone-reads were pre-determined before the snap of the ball? I'm not asking this to be argumentative - I'm asking because people seem to argue both sides - that the reads were and they weren't. Is it all just speculation either way?

I would also like to see this. All I've seen so far is people speculating that they were predetermined and/or misread. But from my own interpretation watching the games, I find that very hard to believe. I can see some instruction to give the ball when in question to save hits on the quarterback but you can usually go back and watch the film and see why the decision was made to keep or give based on what the defense is doing. It can be hard to catch in real time because we're not always reading the same defender but it's usually pretty obvious when you can slow down the replay.

In regards to the offensive line, they were average to above average during the Pelini tenure. The good rushing numbers we put out are evidence that they could be good, so, the line wasn't bad. The lines and the backs go hand-in-hand to an extent, but, I would say AA's ability definitely transcended that of the o-line. He had to dodge a lot of tackles in the backfield and make something out of nothing a lot, probably a bit more than he should have. And I for one heard plenty of former offensive linemen from Nebraska comment throughout the season last year that our line lacked good fundamentals and technique.

We also had a lot of recruiting and developmental woes along the lines. We had some decommits or misses, some guys lost to injury and some guys who just never really developed. How many people were in the boat with me that thought A-Rod had the tools/potential to be All-Conference? I know I did, and that never really proved to be the case. If these types of decommits, injuries, lack of depth, etc. happen occasionally, that's one thing. But, over a seven year period, that's a recruiting/coaching trend that needs to be fixed IMHO.

No one will get an argument from me that our line was not as good as we need it. I've said from the turn of the century our OLine was the biggest thing holding us back most of the time. I do think they've been better the last 5-6 years but that doesn't mean great by any means. And I think they've been better than a lot of people give them credit for. You simply can not have four of the Top 10 rushers in Husker history all sharing carries - two or three of those guys on the same team most of the time - and not be doing some things right up front. And the numbers that saunders posted yesterday backed that up. Saying we were worse against the best competition proves nothing. This is literally true of every team in the country. We have been good enough to be dominant against the lesser teams but not good enough to be consistent against the top teams.

 

[Landlord]

The answer to a lot of these, maybe even all of them, is both.

We probably had both true reads and designed pre-determined handoffs. Our offensive line was both good and bad. Beck at times both stuck with what worked (we ran the power toss 27 times against Penn State for crying out loud) and got too creative straying from it.

Most importantly, Christian Hackenburg is both overrated and a good quarterback that is handicapped by a line of chicken wire trying to stop a dust storm

 

[cornographic]

Yeah, Beck 'sucked', that's why Urban has him now. Probably be wearing an NC ring by this time nxt year.

 

[HuskerExpat]

Yeah, Beck 'sucked', that's why Urban has him now. Probably be wearing an NC ring by this time nxt year.

Urban Meyer is not infallible.

And Beck under Pelini did suck. That seems to be an overwhelming majority opinion. Whether that was the fault of Beck, Pelini or the combination of the two is the real question.

 

[Landlord]

And Beck under Pelini did suck. That seems to be an overwhelming majority opinion. Whether that was the fault of Beck, Pelini or the combination of the two is the real question.

Majority is not at all directly tied to accuracy. Time will tell. It was majority opinion that Shawn Watson sucked as well, and he's gone on to absolutely tear it up at Louisville and get hand picked as OC by Charlie Strong at Texas. I do guess that for both coordinators Bo Pelini had a big hand int hat, though.

 

[cornographic]

Yeah, Beck 'sucked', that's why Urban has him now. Probably be wearing an NC ring by this time nxt year.

Urban Meyer is not infallible.

And Beck under Pelini did suck. That seems to be an overwhelming majority opinion. Whether that was the fault of Beck, Pelini or the combination of the two is the real question.

Well, as successful coaches go, Urban is about the closest thing to infallible that you'll ever encounter--just ask Nick Saban. His 1st 3 yrs @ tOSU is the most impressive run I've seen anywhere, ever.

It's not my impression that 'an overwhelming majority' think/ thought Beck sucked, so I'm not sure where you're getting that. Was he perfect? No. Did his offenses put up some great numbers when he was here? Yes.

The obvious downfalls during the Bo regime were his defenses, so we would probably find more common ground in that type of discussion.