OWH: Predicting the B1G West

[True2tRA]

"Our national rankings in rushing yards per game, rush yards per attempt, and average yards before first contact, as well as the productivity of our runningbacks over the last 5 seasons seem to show that we've had a pretty good offensive line overall. There really aren't any objective rankings that seem to suggest our offensive line has been bad."

"Our offensive line has sucked. It's below average, we haven't fielded a decent offensive line in ages."

"Okay but that's not what the available num.."

"Even though they're directly related you're not allowed to use the runningbacks as evidence."

"Well... I mean. There's still no evidence th-"

"NAME ALL OF OUR GREAT OFFENSIVE LINEMEN if our line has been so great."

"Why..?"

"Oh my god it was a simple question. See, our offensive line sucks."

I don't think any o-line would look good if they had to block 10 people.

Excuse me?

That's one guy pushing 56 straigh backward onto Tommy's lap, not 10.

There is four down linemen, 3 of them are in the backfield in no time. Their LB's are off the LOS and I can count six of our guys who completely missed or barely even made a block.

68 is asking Tommy what the hell he's supposed to be doing, Tommy's trying to tell him and the ball is snapped. It wasn't the first time stuff like this happened.

35 hand checks a guy and then heads downfield? Maybe he should block that guy?

42 is lined up to the left? Why? And when the ball is snapped, he reacts slower than my grandma would, and jogs behind the play. I don't think he ever even touches a defender.

 

[True2tRA]

One possibility I hadn't thought of but I will admit, this play may have been designed to go left. If Tommy made that change to go right, then snapped the ball without changing any alignment, then Tommy really screwed up.

It's possible 68 is reaching over saying "Hey Tommy, the plays supposed to go left, not right".......

Hard to tell if that's what happened, but looking at the way we're lined up, there's no reason that play should be run to the right.

 

[jsneb83]

"Our national rankings in rushing yards per game, rush yards per attempt, and average yards before first contact, as well as the productivity of our runningbacks over the last 5 seasons seem to show that we've had a pretty good offensive line overall. There really aren't any objective rankings that seem to suggest our offensive line has been bad."

"Our offensive line has sucked. It's below average, we haven't fielded a decent offensive line in ages."

"Okay but that's not what the available num.."

"Even though they're directly related you're not allowed to use the runningbacks as evidence."

"Well... I mean. There's still no evidence th-"

"NAME ALL OF OUR GREAT OFFENSIVE LINEMEN if our line has been so great."

"Why..?"

"Oh my god it was a simple question. See, our offensive line sucks."

I don't think any o-line would look good if they had to block 10 people.

Excuse me?
That's one guy pushing 56 straigh backward onto Tommy's lap, not 10.

There is four down linemen, 3 of them are in the backfield in no time. Their LB's are off the LOS and I can count six of our guys who completely missed or barely even made a block.

68 is asking Tommy what the hell he's supposed to be doing, Tommy's trying to tell him and the ball is snapped. It wasn't the first time stuff like this happened.

35 hand checks a guy and then heads downfield? Maybe he should block that guy?

42 is lined up to the left? Why? And when the ball is snapped, he reacts slower than my grandma would, and jogs behind the play. I don't think he ever even touches a defender.

I do agree that our o-line has had issues, and I think there are a couple things for that. One was the lack of a consistent passing game, which allowed teams to stack the box, which is what I was getting at with that gif. Michigan St stacked the box the whole game and went after Ameer all game, so he couldn't get anything going. Another issue is I believed the blocking scheme made them play soft, which became a problem at times against physical D-lines. It seems like there were times when they weren't delivering a block but more just getting in the defenders way, like you do in flag football.

 

[Mavric]

"Our national rankings in rushing yards per game, rush yards per attempt, and average yards before first contact, as well as the productivity of our runningbacks over the last 5 seasons seem to show that we've had a pretty good offensive line overall. There really aren't any objective rankings that seem to suggest our offensive line has been bad."

"Our offensive line has sucked. It's below average, we haven't fielded a decent offensive line in ages."

"Okay but that's not what the available num.."

"Even though they're directly related you're not allowed to use the runningbacks as evidence."

"Well... I mean. There's still no evidence th-"

"NAME ALL OF OUR GREAT OFFENSIVE LINEMEN if our line has been so great."

"Why..?"

"Oh my god it was a simple question. See, our offensive line sucks."

So how many plays where Helu, Martinez, AA and others ran untouched for touchdowns should we post?

You're countering seasons worth of stats and awards with one play.

 

[True2tRA]

Post em all. Those are some great plays. Matter of fact I think we have a thread for that. Offensive line did a great job on a number of plays. They did very poorly on a number of plays as well.

I'm not countering an entire season of anything. That was one play that supported an argument of how much I truly think the offensive line needs some work. They were a huge part of some of the let downs in big games.

I never on e said that play represented the whole season. If they played like that all year, we wouldn't have any yards of offense. It's not rocket science.

Keep tryin though dude.

 

[Landlord]

That was one play that supported an argument of how much I truly think the offensive line needs some work. They were a huge part of some of the let downs in big games.

What games over the last 4 years do you think that our offensive line's play had a 'huge' part in us losing?

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

It's really difficult to judge the effectiveness of an offensive line, then again, it's incredibly difficult to judge the effectiveness of any single football player/unit.

Completion percentage is the product of a QB's ability to find a receiver and a WR's ability to hang on to get open and catch the football. How many times last year did we see Tommy pass it right to a WR only for it to be dropped. Now that's not the fault of the QB, but the hit to the completion percentage is typically attributed to the QB.

So, how can we quantifiably judge the "goodness" of our offensive lines? Rushing yards can't be it because a really good RB (Ameer) can make an offensive line look better than it actually is. But sacks allowed don't work either, because we've all seen a QB hold on to the ball too long; an offensive linemen can't be expected to protect a QB for an exceedingly long period of time.

Quantitative stats only tell us so much, but they don't tell the entire story. That's where qualitative data comes in. From watching film alone, does it look like our offensive line is effectively doing its job or is the RB making our offensive line look better than they are? And therein lies the problem: those assessments get completely subjective when it's not obvious; there's moments when our offensive line "appeared" dominant and there's moments when our offensive line "appeared" to be dominated. Nobody will disagree on those instances. But what about the areas between? Ergo our disagreement.

____________________________

For the most part, I think our offensive lines have done as much as they needed to for Ameer to find space (remember, Ameer didn't need much space to operate to begin with), and thus the great rushing statistics the past two seasons (205.8--21st in 2013, 244.0--15th in 2014). Newby, Stevenson, Cross, and Taylor are not Ameer and so the offensive line is going to have to do more if we want to put up similar numbers. Similarly, our offensive line did a pretty solid job protecting Tommy the last two seasons (1.4 sacks allowed per game--26th in 2013, 1.8 sacks allowed per game--36th in 2014). However, I think the new system is going to require Tommy to hold on to the ball a little bit longer to run through his progressions, especially early on as he acclimates to gameday tempo. Fortunately, I think our offensive line coaching with Cavanaugh is a big step up from Cotton and Garrison.

 

[True2tRA]

I agree Cavanaugh is an upgrade. It was specifically pointed out that fundamental and technical aspects of the offensive line were not a focus as an individual group in practice. This is from people who know. I think the individual time the offensive line will get, strictly focusing on technique, will be very beneficial.

 

[alwayshusking]

OL definitely needs work. Need to put up solid numbers against the good teams not just put up gaudy numbers on FAU

Against the only top 25 caliber teams we played last season

MSU - 37 carries for 47 yards 1.3 ypc

UW - 46 carries for 118 yards 2.6 ypc

USC - 43 carries for 144 yards 3.3 ypc

 

[True2tRA]

OL definitely needs work. Need to put up solid numbers against the good teams not just put up gaudy numbers on FAU

Against the only top 25 caliber teams we played last season

MSU - 37 carries for 47 yards 1.3 ypc

UW - 46 carries for 118 yards 2.6 ypc

USC - 43 carries for 144 yards 3.3 ypc

There's a good start. Very poor numbers there. Problem I would have with LOMS question is that the games the offensive line looked confused and out matched, the defense looked the same. So we've always got that to fall back on. Blame the defense. Which, I'm with anybody on that, the defense blew it a lot. There just seems to be an ignorance of the issues surrounding the offense and the offensive line.(aside from Tommy of course, some here have no problem laying it all at his feet )

 

[alwayshusking]

Yeah, defense sucked too, worse in fact. Hey we sucked all around against quality competition during much of Bo's tenure. That's why he's at YSU now.

 

[Landlord]

OL definitely needs work. Need to put up solid numbers against the good teams not just put up gaudy numbers on FAU

Against the only top 25 caliber teams we played last season

MSU - 37 carries for 47 yards 1.3 ypc

UW - 46 carries for 118 yards 2.6 ypc

USC - 43 carries for 144 yards 3.3 ypc

There's a good start. Very poor numbers there. Problem I would have with LOMS question is that the games the offensive line looked confused and out matched, the defense looked the same. So we've always got that to fall back on. Blame the defense. Which, I'm with anybody on that, the defense blew it a lot. There just seems to be an ignorance of the issues surrounding the offense and the offensive line.(aside from Tommy of course, some here have no problem laying it all at his feet )

Would you still answer the question? Just your personal opinion of which games our offensive line played a big role in us losing.

 

[True2tRA]

OL definitely needs work. Need to put up solid numbers against the good teams not just put up gaudy numbers on FAU

Against the only top 25 caliber teams we played last season

MSU - 37 carries for 47 yards 1.3 ypc

UW - 46 carries for 118 yards 2.6 ypc

USC - 43 carries for 144 yards 3.3 ypc

There's a good start. Very poor numbers there. Problem I would have with LOMS question is that the games the offensive line looked confused and out matched, the defense looked the same. So we've always got that to fall back on. Blame the defense. Which, I'm with anybody on that, the defense blew it a lot. There just seems to be an ignorance of the issues surrounding the offense and the offensive line.(aside from Tommy of course, some here have no problem laying it all at his feet )

Would you still answer the question? Just your personal opinion of which games our offensive line played a big role in us losing.

Yea, I'm balancing this on my phone and trying to catch some fights too. I'll get back to ya.

 

[It'sNotAFakeID]

Here are the Wisconsin's, Nebraska's, and Minnesota's conference schedules:

Wisconsin

This is perhaps the softest conference schedule you'll find in the Big Ten. No Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State. But the Badgers will have to travel to both Nebraska and Minnesota, and both figure to be difficult tests. The home team has won in every meeting between Wisconsin and Nebraska since the Huskers joined the Big Ten and Wisconsin barely edged Minnesota in Camp Randall this year. Both the Gophers and Badgers appear to have similar talent this year. Melvin Gordon and David Cobb leave big shoes to fill, but I think Wisconsin's offensive line will be too much for Minnesota and the Badgers will win another close contest. The only other game I see as a trap for Wisconsin is their 11/7 matchup against the Terps in Maryland. Maryland looks to be on the upswing this year and with it being a home game and all, I think the Terps will give Wisconsin all that it can handle in that game.

Minnesota

TCF Bank Stadium will be the host for the two of the three most important West divisional contests, which would be huge if Minnesota didn't have to play Michigan, @Ohio State, and @Iowa three consecutive weeks. The bye week between Nebraska and Michigan will help, but it's hard to imagine the Gophers pulling 2 wins from that 3 game stretch. That means the Gophers have to beat both Nebraska AND Wisconsin and hope that the winner of Wisconsin-Nebraska loses to another team (if I were a Gophers fan, I'd be pulling for Nebraska in this game). Aside from maybe a scare from Northwestern to start the year, I don't see many other teams on this schedule giving the Gophers problems.

Nebraska

Although facing Wisconsin and Minnesota in consecutive weeks will be difficult, this schedule allows Nebraska to firmly position itself as the clear frontrunner in the West division. Wisconsin and Minnesota figure to be the other two threats in the West division, beating them both could make the daunting test against Michigan State less important. I hope both the players and coaching staff see the tremendous opportunity that lays before them. No other teams should give Nebraska trouble, and taking care of your biggest opposition so early on in the season puts the team in a great position to get back to Indy. Classic thorn in the side after big wins Northwestern follows the Wisconsin and Minnesota and figures to be the only trap game on the schedule for the Huskers.

 

[Elf]

Other than the fact that we have been boat raced by Wisconsin on several occasions in the past, I really don't understand why they are being picked first in the division this year. Their coaching hire was not as great as ours, we have more talent across the board, returning players are about the same, etc. I see the West ending up: 1. NU, 2. Minnesota, 3. Wisconsin - Iowa tie.

Really? You think NU has more talent across the board than Wisconsin? Have you seen their offensive line? NU hasn't fielded a decent oline is ages. Thats what Wiscy is praised for year in and year out.

Everything you said is completely subjective at this point. You can't even objectively compare the returning players just for the fact alone that we are running different schemes.

While wisconsin has a new coach, their will be basically no transition because Chryst was there just 3 years ago. Wisconsin is the favorite because they've shown year after year, that they don't fall off the map.

I say it's time to start grinding Wisconsin under our heel.