McKewon: Mike Riley's 3-5 team according to analytics? A little like other recent Husker teams

[desertshox]

Maybe the wr and lb coaching changes were a wash.

almost everyone will say these two positions were upgrades. wr maybe at worst is a wash but with what we have seen it is an upgrade. lb not sure how you could even say the two are remotely close. the play of that mash unit just screams that bray is better.

 

[TonyStalloni]

We all know the team isn't where we wanted them to be when the season started. We aren't used to losing this often and to some of the teams we've lost to. There are two options.

1. Endure and hope things change this year, hope we have a solid recruiting year come Feb and holes get filled. We're already in on some excellent kids. I want to see how Mike and the staff do when starting fresh with new kids and how they coach them up.

2. On the other side of the coin you can turn off your radio or tv and not watch. Please avoid the frustration and save yourself the high blood pressure. Come back when they get good again and if they never do then find a team you can enjoy rooting for.

We as fans aren't changing the results of the games to a high degree outside of making some noise when the opponent is on offense. We aren't changing the coaching staff any time soon. No one will ask our opinion when or if a coaching change is made. My druthers would be that we stop acting like parents going through a divorce and fighting over the kids ....each blaming the other as the cause of the breakup.

This state is made up of hard working blue collar people who should be used to adversity in life. We battle weather extremes. Our parents and grandparents fought world wars and won. As I get older I really wonder if I'll see another great Husker football team. I see things on the field that frustrate me but as long as I have a voice I'll be rooting for them and whomever is coaching.

 

[suh_fan93]

This staff was never considered an upgrade. Not sure you need metrics to see how this one was/is going to play out.

The staff was considered an upgrade by almost everyone at almost every position until a few weeks ago.

Mike Riley and his staff were considered an upgrade???????!!!!!

 

[Sargon]

if we were 5-3 there would be excitement and hope for Riley's next 4 years.

But amazing what a win and loss record does for a team. 3-5 and everything is gloomy.

I doubt many fans are overly gloomy about the staff because of the 3-5 record. Not sure but I doubt it. My guess is that most of the excessive negativity is coming from a small minority of vocal (vocal *now*) fans. Some of the small group are people who really don't understand analytics at all. 3-5 to them is dispositive. The end. Then there are some agenda folks anti mike, AD, or Perlman plus some pro Bo's. And last but not least are the complainers. They do it because it's what they do. 3-5 is good fodder.

Zoogs thanks for the op. Interesting.

I'm not anti-Mike (but am very anti-Pederson, I mean Eichorst, and his boss).

NU screwed up big time going against what TO thought was best for football. We'll suffer the penalty, and all the pretzeled "analytics" aside, this is a .500 staff doing what a .500 staff does.

Knute Rockne and Bob Devaney would have a hell of a chuckle over this nonsense.

And of course the bottom line is that NU didn't upgrade at all. At best we stayed the same, but have a super nice laid back senior citizen coaching the Huskers now.

I wasn't following or buying your argument at all until you delivered the final overwhelmingly convincing and endearing closing "senior citizen." Bam! What a close! Genius! Turn out the lights folks lock the doors this one is OVER.

 

[Count 'Bility]

I'm going to try brevity to see if it works better. Here goes.

I doubt many fans are overly gloomy about the staff because of the 3-5 record. Not sure but I doubt it.

Thats why fans are idiots and it doesnt matter what we think.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

Come on...do we need to break this down? Here is what we heard/read

1. Bo is a moron

2. JP doesn't even coach

3. Els is HORRIBLE

4. Cotton is HORRIBLE

5. Ron Brown is amazing

6. Beck is a horrible coach

7. Warren is good

8. Fischer seemed to be "good"

But basically people felt it was an upgrade at every spot

 

[JJ Husker]

After reviewing the article and all the various rankings of things for the Huskers for the last 8 years, all I could think of was the famous Ricky Bobby line; If you're not first, you're last. 32nd place this 63rd place that, none of it amounts to jack sh#t when you're losing 3-4-5 or more games per year. We're not involved in this deal to see who can edge out Northwestern for some 33rd place composite ranking that only verifies how mediocre this football team has become. I think I've finally accepted that we aren't on our way down or on our way back, we're just not a top 30 program anymore. Reminds me of when my kids did club swimming in the summers. Some of the bigger meets they would hand out ribbons all the way down to 12th place. Who gives a sh#t about who came in 12th? This program needs to get back to competing for titles instead of haggling over who is 42nd in offense ranking.

15th, 20th, 25th, 30th......I don't care. Wake me up when back in the top ten or don't wake me up at all.

 

[Mavric]

"Isn't so different" is a nice relative way of making it sound similar when it doesn't appear to be that close.

Of the four metrics he looked at, only the FEI is very close. Average FEI 08-14: 31.9; 2015: 32.

S&P +: 08-15 Average: 27; 2015: 47

FPI: 08-15 Average: 25; 2015: 44

Sagarin: 08-15 Average: 25; 2015: 46

So in the other three metrics, we're right on the edge of the Top 25. Which makes sense as most years we finished ranked. Now we're a fringe Top 50 team. That doesn't really seem all that close to me.

 

[lo country]

"Isn't so different" is a nice relative way of making it sound similar when it doesn't appear to be that close.

Of the four metrics he looked at, only the FEI is very close. Average FEI 08-14: 31.9; 2015: 32.

S&P +: 08-15 Average: 27; 2015: 47

FPI: 08-15 Average: 25; 2015: 44

Sagarin: 08-15 Average: 25; 2015: 46

So in the other three metrics, we're right on the edge of the Top 25. Which makes sense as most years we finished ranked. Now we're a fringe Top 50 team. That doesn't really seem all that close to me.

Or an upgrade. Or acceptable. Or trending upward. Or moving the needle. Or good for recruiting. Or good for the fan base. Or good for the University...........

Thanks Mav for the does of reality. Stats can be made to say what we want. Bottom line, do the results pass the "eye ball" test that we are a better team this year or this staff has its stuff together?

 

[suh_fan93]

Come on...do we need to break this down? Here is what we heard/read

1. Bo is a moron

2. JP doesn't even coach

3. Els is HORRIBLE

4. Cotton is HORRIBLE

5. Ron Brown is amazing

6. Beck is a horrible coach

7. Warren is good

8. Fischer seemed to be "good"

But basically people felt it was an upgrade at every spot

When I look at the 'new' staff still not seeing the upgrade... More like even swap.

 

[cm husker]

"Isn't so different" is a nice relative way of making it sound similar when it doesn't appear to be that close.

Of the four metrics he looked at, only the FEI is very close. Average FEI 08-14: 31.9; 2015: 32.

S&P +: 08-15 Average: 27; 2015: 47

FPI: 08-15 Average: 25; 2015: 44

Sagarin: 08-15 Average: 25; 2015: 46

So in the other three metrics, we're right on the edge of the Top 25. Which makes sense as most years we finished ranked. Now we're a fringe Top 50 team. That doesn't really seem all that close to me.

This is the central point hit squarely on the head.

The implication in the article is that "if we'd won half of those close losses, we'd be ranked the same as last year" but reality is that if we'd won by 1 instead of lost by 1, these "fancy" analytics would basically keep us in the same position. Because, as is being argued by Sam, actual wins and losses don't matter much in them. It's really about performance against competition strength, regardless of actual outcome.

 

[lo country]

Come on...do we need to break this down? Here is what we heard/read

1. Bo is a moron- Riley anti Bo. Just nicer with worse record. But he's nicer

2. JP doesn't even coach Banker does, but can't tell although he says good things and is now saying some players are half a$$ing

3. Els is HORRIBLE Bray huge upgrade

4. Cotton is HORRIBLE ​Cav is killing recruitment to OL IMO with no subs. Why come here to ride the pine for years....Clown

5. Ron Brown is amazing Crazy (stupid rotation) and no one separating themselves. RB light years ahead

6. Beck is a horrible coach Never thought I'd say this, but looks like a genius compared to Langs

7. Warren is good #FREEMARVINSANDERS. Stewart should be charged with theft

8. Fischer seemed to be "good" Agreed, but savage professional is bad a$$

I initially said Phillips was an upgrade over Dobbs, but the injuries. I mean damn. Riley even mentioning having to look into the S&C.

Hughes-Upgrade IMO, although not really "tested" this year.

But basically people felt it was an upgrade at every spot

 

[skersfan]

Simple question, why aren't you guys coaching at a division 1 program?

It seems you know more than people that have proven they can do the job.

Please give your qualifications, I am anxious to see how many of you get selected for the numerous job openings around the country.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

Simple question, why aren't you guys coaching at a division 1 program?It seems you know more than people that have proven they can do the job.Please give your qualifications, I am anxious to see how many of you get selected for the numerous job openings around the country.

Exactly!

Just like any of you jackbutts that thought Bo should have been fired...can you please sure your D1 experience as an AD with us?

Thanks in advance.

All you hosers that think that Riley should not have been hired, can you please share with us which D1 College you were AD at?

Also, all you Canucks that thought Riley should have not brought Banker with him, could you please post your resume from the time that you were a D1 head coach with MULTIPLE grey cup championships?

Alas, all you guys that think you know more about praying at football games could you please tell us when you were a sitting member on the US Supreme Court?

 

[alwayshusking]

It's absolutely about the record.

I think in upcoming years, it will be. In year 1 though, there is some leeway that needs to be given. The roster needs to be upgraded, a new culture needs to be put into place, new systems need to be learned etc.

If the losses pile up in the upcoming years, this staff will be in trouble, no doubt.