Up and Down QB Play 2004-2015

[TGHusker]

http://hailvarsity.com/news/nebraskas-decade-of-up-and-down-qb-play/2015/12/

Insightful article on our QB play over the past decade +. In summary the article reviews QB play over this time frame - showing the highs and lows with the conclusion that if QB play could be improved & be consistent, we should be winning

championships and be contenders nationally. I think as we look at this past season, it could be argued that improved QB play could have easily propelled us to a 9-4, 10-3 or even 11-2 record. Some may say that better coaching decisions could have improved the record by 2 or 3 games as well.

 

[BigRedBuster]

You could say most of our losses would not have come down to a coaching decision at the end of the game if it weren't for bad QB play.

And, a few of those supposedly bad coaching decisions were exacerbated by bad QB play.

The 4th and 1 against Iowa throwing a bomb to the end zone when a tight end is wide open for a first down is a prime example.

 

[TGHusker]

You could say most of our losses would not have come down to a coaching decision at the end of the game if it weren't for bad QB play.

And, a few of those supposedly bad coaching decisions were exacerbated by bad QB play.

The 4th and 1 against Iowa throwing a bomb to the end zone when a tight end is wide open for a first down is a prime example.

So very true. That Iowa is still a real head banger -

and a

 

[NUinID]

I don't think it is secret that having good QB play is essential to having a championship caliber team. That could mean different things to different teams. A QB can be a leader and winner and not have a great QB rating. I doubt statistically that Tommie Frazier would have scored any more than average on that scale. Yet he was the right fit for that team and offense.

Look how Oregon fell off without Mariota. Adams is good, but he is not Mariota and when Adams was hurt they were downright awful. Now they are trying to trap lightning in a bottle again with a grad transfer. Look at VaTechs teams the last few years. The big factor in there fall to average is the fact that they haven't had a decent QB since Tyrod Taylor left.

Average or below average QB play can hurt a team badly especially if their offense is geared towards great QB play.

 

[Red_October]

You could say most of our losses would not have come down to a coaching decision at the end of the game if it weren't for bad QB play.

And, a few of those supposedly bad coaching decisions were exacerbated by bad QB play.

The 4th and 1 against Iowa throwing a bomb to the end zone when a tight end is wide open for a first down is a prime example.

So very true. That Iowa is still a real head banger -

and a

Not when you consider the other bad decisions TA made during the year in very critical situations. In the Iowa debacle he locked onto that receiver and would have thrown to him no matter what, somewhat like Jamaal Lord did in the Texas game a milliion years ago. We need an upgrade in QB, we have played 7 years with the second team starting.

 

[Red_October]

I don't think it is secret that having good QB play is essential to having a championship caliber team. That could mean different things to different teams. A QB can be a leader and winner and not have a great QB rating. I doubt statistically that Tommie Frazier would have scored any more than average on that scale. Yet he was the right fit for that team and offense.

Look how Oregon fell off without Mariota. Adams is good, but he is not Mariota and when Adams was hurt they were downright awful. Now they are trying to trap lightning in a bottle again with a grad transfer. Look at VaTechs teams the last few years. The big factor in there fall to average is the fact that they haven't had a decent QB since Tyrod Taylor left.

Average or below average QB play can hurt a team badly especially if their offense is geared towards great QB play.

If we had average, we would have won at least 3 more games than we did.

 

[beorach]

Some may say that better coaching decisions could have improved the record by 2 or 3 games as well.

You don't say?

p.s. - By the numbers, Nebraska did have below average passing offense overall...though it was practically average statistically. The interceptions were the problem. Touchdowns and yards per game were good stats for NU, particularly relative to what other B1G teams were doing - MSU's stat is comparable for TD/G but only Indiana is close for both categories. Here are Nebraska's z-scores from comparison to national averages and standard deviations calculated for all FBS teams in games against other FBS teams only:

completions per game
0.300

percentage
-0.331

yards per attempt
0.233

touchdowns per game
0.793

interceptions per game
-2.200

rating
-0.028

yards per game
0.694


For those who haven't read my posts explaining these figures, the z-score is the difference from the national average for a category expressed as a number of standard deviations for the given statistic. At a z-score of -2, you're in the bottom 2.3% of all the data. You can see a good explanation, with pictures, here:

http://www.regentsprep.org/regents/math/algtrig/ats2/normallesson.htm

What I'd think we'd need to also look at is what TA offers in the running game, though, if we were really going to be fair...to see how much of a tradeoff there is w/r/t the turnovers through the air. From my recollection, it sure didn't seem to look like it in our last game.

 

[NUinID]

I don't think it is secret that having good QB play is essential to having a championship caliber team. That could mean different things to different teams. A QB can be a leader and winner and not have a great QB rating. I doubt statistically that Tommie Frazier would have scored any more than average on that scale. Yet he was the right fit for that team and offense.

Look how Oregon fell off without Mariota. Adams is good, but he is not Mariota and when Adams was hurt they were downright awful. Now they are trying to trap lightning in a bottle again with a grad transfer. Look at VaTechs teams the last few years. The big factor in there fall to average is the fact that they haven't had a decent QB since Tyrod Taylor left.

Average or below average QB play can hurt a team badly especially if their offense is geared towards great QB play.

If we had average, we would have won at least 3 more games than we did.

The INTs are the big issues. If we throw 7-8 INTs instead of 21 that makes all the difference in the world.

 

[StPaulHusker]

I don't think it is secret that having good QB play is essential to having a championship caliber team. That could mean different things to different teams. A QB can be a leader and winner and not have a great QB rating. I doubt statistically that Tommie Frazier would have scored any more than average on that scale. Yet he was the right fit for that team and offense.

Look how Oregon fell off without Mariota. Adams is good, but he is not Mariota and when Adams was hurt they were downright awful. Now they are trying to trap lightning in a bottle again with a grad transfer. Look at VaTechs teams the last few years. The big factor in there fall to average is the fact that they haven't had a decent QB since Tyrod Taylor left.

Average or below average QB play can hurt a team badly especially if their offense is geared towards great QB play.

If we had average, we would have won at least 3 more games than we did.

The INTs are the big issues. If we throw 7-8 INTs instead of 21 that makes all the difference in the world.

It certainly would have made a difference in 2 games this year

 

[TGHusker]

So the million $ question is - assuming POB is all what we hope he is, (the next great QB at NU and not the next Harrison Beck), Does MR start him next year to get the learning curve over with, bite the bullet wt his freshman year mistakes, so that in his year 2 he can lead us to the conf championship?

I say yes. I think TA's talents and learning/development curve has been shown to be limited and will not get us over the hump. For example, Okie State did ok (7-6) with Rudolph as a frosh last year and this year they started out 10-0 until he got injured.