Class Retention

Mavric

Mavric

Yoda
Staff member
There was a discussion about retaining recruits. Transfers are more and more common all the time but I was curious what our numbers have been recently.

Here are the players we've signed and what happened to them:

Class of 2009

Stayed 2+ years - C. Green, Ankrah, Washington, Burkhead, A. Green, Sirles, Martinez, Randle, Martin, Middleton, Robinson, Kerr, Ash, Gomes, Zimmerer, Coffey, Pensick, Qvale, Kinnie

Left after 1 year/dismissed - Williams

Never made it - None

Class of 2010

Stayed 2+ years - Ashburn, Bell, Carnes, Cooper, J. Cotton, David, Enunwa, Evans, Guy, Hardrick, Heard, Jackson, Jean-Baptiste, Marsh, Mitchell, Moudy, Okuyemi, Rodriguez, Rome, Vestal

Left after 1 year/dismissed - None

Never made it - Harper

Class of 2011

Stayed 2+ years - Abdullah, Allen, Bondi, Carter, Davie, C. Jackson, Price, Peat, Pirman, Reeves, Santos, Stafford, Sterup, Sutton, Turner, Williams

Left after 1 year/dismissed - A. Green, Klachko, T. Moore,

Never made it - Starling

Class of 2012

Stayed 2+ years - Afalava, Alexander, Anderson, Armstrong, S. Cotton, Cross, Curry, McMullen, A. Moore, Rose, Seisay, Thurston, Valentine, Westerkamp, Whitaker

Left after 1 year/dismissed - Brown

Never made it - None

Class of 2013

Stayed 2+ years - Banderas, Carter, Collins, Finnin, Gerry, Gladney, Gregory, Hannon, Hart, Johnson, Joseph, Knevel, Kondolo, Love, Maurice, Natter, M. Newby, T. Newby, Stanton, A. Taylor

Left after 1 year/dismissed - D. Martinez, Miller*, Suttles

Never made it - Dixon, Mixon

Class of 2014

Stayed 2+ years - Akinmoladun, Brown, Bush, Cockrell, Darlington, Farmer, Foster, Gates, Gifford, Jones, Kalu, Keels, King, Mosley, Newell, Pierson-El, Stoltenberg, K. Williams

Left after 1 year/dismissed - Irons, Tolbert

Never made it - Harrison, Stewart, Walton, Wills

 
So the claim was 30%+ never made it or left after one year.

2009 - 5.0%

2010 - 4.8%

2011 - 20.0%

2012 - 6.3%

2013 - 20.0%

2014 - 25.0%

Not going to argue that 20-25% is much higher than it should be, but the argument about 30% is grossly over-exaggerated.

 
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How long did Afalava stay from the 2012 class?

Nevermind, I see he made it through his redshirt freshman year.

 
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Don't kill me if I'm derailing this, but I wonder what the percentage of non-contributors is for each class and how that compares to other programs. Where's our Dave Bartu!?

 
Thanks for compiling these numbers. It supports those 247 rankings of "current on roster talent" that put NU around 20th in terms of talent in the program during 2015.

Would be interesting to see a breakdown of our contemporaries. But what a Herculean statistical endeavor that would be.

 
cm husker said:
Thanks for compiling these numbers. It supports those 247 rankings of "current on roster talent" that put NU around 20th in terms of talent in the program during 2015.

Would be interesting to see a breakdown of our contemporaries. But what a Herculean statistical endeavor that would be.
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you have all day, get to it

 
cm husker said:
Thanks for compiling these numbers. It supports those 247 rankings of "current on roster talent" that put NU around 20th in terms of talent in the program during 2015.

Would be interesting to see a breakdown of our contemporaries. But what a Herculean statistical endeavor that would be.
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There was a recent article by Brandon Vogel at Hail Varsity on the "War of Attrition". This article, which I did not read, covered attrition rates from 2001 at Nebraska, neighboring schools (e.g., Iowa, Wisconsin, Oklahoma), and some national schools (e.g., Alabama, Clemson, Stanford). Vogel talked about this article on Sharp & Benning (here is the podcast). In that interview, he mentioned Nebraska attrition rates from 2001 averaged 37-38%, and from 2011-2014, it has been about 34%. These numbers are actually comparable to other B1G West schools, like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota (though Northwestern was much lower). Interestingly, schools in similar regions were also comparable (e.g., Oklahoma's attrition rate from 2011-2014 has been 34-36%).

He also mentioned there were some other schools with much lower attrition rates (e.g., Stanford, Alabama, and Clemson were around 25%).

My take from the segment with Brandon Vogel was that Nebraska's current attrition rates (i.e., those 2011-2014 classes under Bo which would affect the current team) were on par with Nebraska's historical attrition rates (at least from the last 15 years) and schools regionally and in the B1G West. With that said, it by no means is among the lowest in the nation, but this may be the cost of doing business in Nebraska.

 
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Thanks very much for that summary. Vogel seems to do some pretty good data driven analysis. I'll need to check the methodology at the link when I have a moment. 1/3 attrition over a 4/5 year period strikes me as accurate.

I once did an analysis of NE recruit attrition versus border state and outside of border state recruit attrition. Will need to dig that info up.

Argument basically goes:

1. NU can most easily recruit and retain NE talent.

2. Figure out a program that maximizes production from that level of talent.

3. Sprinkle in "outside" recruits when possible.

 
Mavric said:
There was a discussion about retaining recruits. Transfers are more and more common all the time but I was curious what our numbers have been recently.

Here are the players we've signed and what happened to them:

Class of 2009

Stayed 2+ years - C. Green, Ankrah, Washington, Burkhead, A. Green, Sirles, Martinez, Randle, Martin, Middleton, Robinson, Kerr, Ash, Gomes, Zimmerer, Coffey, Pensick, Qvale, Kinnie

Left after 1 year/dismissed - Williams

Never made it - None

Class of 2010

Stayed 2+ years - Ashburn, Bell, Carnes, Cooper, J. Cotton, David, Enunwa, Evans, Guy, Hardrick, Heard, Jackson, Jean-Baptiste, Marsh, Mitchell, Moudy, Okuyemi, Rodriguez, Rome, Vestal

Left after 1 year/dismissed - None

Never made it - Harper

Class of 2011

Stayed 2+ years - Abdullah, Allen, Bondi, Carter, Davie, C. Jackson, Price, Peat, Pirman, Reeves, Santos, Stafford, Sterup, Sutton, Turner, Williams

Left after 1 year/dismissed - A. Green, Klachko, T. Moore,

Never made it - Starling

Class of 2012

Stayed 2+ years - Afalava, Alexander, Anderson, Armstrong, S. Cotton, Cross, Curry, McMullen, A. Moore, Rose, Seisay, Thurston, Valentine, Westerkamp, Whitaker

Left after 1 year/dismissed - Brown

Never made it - None

Class of 2013

Stayed 2+ years - Banderas, Carter, Collins, Finnin, Gerry, Gladney, Gregory, Hannon, Hart, Johnson, Joseph, Knevel, Kondolo, Love, Maurice, Natter, M. Newby, T. Newby, Stanton, A. Taylor

Left after 1 year/dismissed - D. Martinez, Miller*, Suttles

Never made it - Dixon, Mixon

Class of 2014

Stayed 2+ years - Akinmoladun, Brown, Bush, Cockrell, Darlington, Farmer, Foster, Gates, Gifford, Jones, Kalu, Keels, King, Mosley, Newell, Pierson-El, Stoltenberg, K. Williams

Left after 1 year/dismissed - Irons, Tolbert

Never made it - Harrison, Stewart, Walton, Wills
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Try taking that until their junior season. The number of top level recruits left in the program is staggering.

2009 - 4 of the top 5 rated recruits were not here for their junior season.

2010 - 3 of the top 5 rated recruits were not here for their junior season.

2011- 2 of the top 5 rated recruits were not here for their junior season.

2012 - only 1 of the top 5 rated recruits not here for their junior season.

2013- 3 of the top 6 rated recruits not here for their junior season.

 
bugeater17 said:
Mavric said:
There was a discussion about retaining recruits. Transfers are more and more common all the time but I was curious what our numbers have been recently.

Here are the players we've signed and what happened to them:

Class of 2009

Stayed 2+ years - C. Green, Ankrah, Washington, Burkhead, A. Green, Sirles, Martinez, Randle, Martin, Middleton, Robinson, Kerr, Ash, Gomes, Zimmerer, Coffey, Pensick, Qvale, Kinnie

Left after 1 year/dismissed - Williams

Never made it - None

Class of 2010

Stayed 2+ years - Ashburn, Bell, Carnes, Cooper, J. Cotton, David, Enunwa, Evans, Guy, Hardrick, Heard, Jackson, Jean-Baptiste, Marsh, Mitchell, Moudy, Okuyemi, Rodriguez, Rome, Vestal

Left after 1 year/dismissed - None

Never made it - Harper

Class of 2011

Stayed 2+ years - Abdullah, Allen, Bondi, Carter, Davie, C. Jackson, Price, Peat, Pirman, Reeves, Santos, Stafford, Sterup, Sutton, Turner, Williams

Left after 1 year/dismissed - A. Green, Klachko, T. Moore,

Never made it - Starling

Class of 2012

Stayed 2+ years - Afalava, Alexander, Anderson, Armstrong, S. Cotton, Cross, Curry, McMullen, A. Moore, Rose, Seisay, Thurston, Valentine, Westerkamp, Whitaker

Left after 1 year/dismissed - Brown

Never made it - None

Class of 2013

Stayed 2+ years - Banderas, Carter, Collins, Finnin, Gerry, Gladney, Gregory, Hannon, Hart, Johnson, Joseph, Knevel, Kondolo, Love, Maurice, Natter, M. Newby, T. Newby, Stanton, A. Taylor

Left after 1 year/dismissed - D. Martinez, Miller*, Suttles

Never made it - Dixon, Mixon

Class of 2014

Stayed 2+ years - Akinmoladun, Brown, Bush, Cockrell, Darlington, Farmer, Foster, Gates, Gifford, Jones, Kalu, Keels, King, Mosley, Newell, Pierson-El, Stoltenberg, K. Williams

Left after 1 year/dismissed - Irons, Tolbert

Never made it - Harrison, Stewart, Walton, Wills
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Try taking that until their junior season. The number of top level recruits left in the program is staggering.

2009 - 4 of the top 5 rated recruits were not here for their junior season.

2010 - 3 of the top 5 rated recruits were not here for their junior season.

2011- 2 of the top 5 rated recruits were not here for their junior season.

2012 - only 1 of the top 5 rated recruits not here for their junior season.

2013- 3 of the top 6 rated recruits not here for their junior season.
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That has a lot less to do with the program and a lot more to do with players seeing the writing on the wall.

A. Green and Cody Green are solid examples. They saw what Ameer and T-Mart were doing on the field respectively and chose to take their careers elsewhere, which was the correct decision for them. Players never arriving or leaving shortly after arriving are more troubling in my opinion.

 
If you extend it through their senior year, they were all gone. It was awful. Atrocious that that happens here.

 
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