Athlon: Ranking Roster Talent by Recruiting Classes

[cm husker]

Prior to 2008, it could be argued that 100% of all presidents were white, so therefore, to win a presidential election, you have to be white.

See the flaw in your logic?

 

[GBRFAN]

This article was linked in another thread but I think it's interesting to look at as a kind of preview for the year. They used the average class ranking on the 247 Composite over the last five years to rank the teams. 247 also does one where they look at the talent actually on the roster which helps adjust for attrition and transfers so I think that's a little bit better look but this gives a decent idea when trying to compare "talent."

For our purposes, I'll list the Huskers and this year's opponents (5 year average)

2 - Ohio State (4.2)

19 - Oregon (19.4)

29 - Nebraska (28.4)

43 - Wisconsin (41.6)

44 - Maryland (42.0)

48 - Indiana (50.8)

50 - Northwestern (51.8)

52 - Iowa (52.6)

56 - Minnesota (58.6)

58 - Illinois (60.8)

64 - Purdue (65.0)

Not Listed - Fresno State, Wyoming

Yep, that looks about right.

In the B1G... well... the top 4 teams are all in the East division and the bottom 5 teams are all in the west division. Hmmm...

True but the spread from 43 to 64 isn't much and 26-29 is nothing so you really have #1 #2 3way tie for 3rd and 7 way tie for 6th

 

[HuskerNBigD]

Prior to 2008, it could be argued that 100% of all presidents were white, so therefore, to win a presidential election, you have to be white.

See the flaw in your logic?

C'mon cm, that logic would be half right!!!

Sorry, couldn't resist.

 

[Mierin]

100% accurate. Only teams that meet the metric can win a college football national championship.

This is the most important metric ever discovered in the history of college football.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2014/2/18/5312840/college-football-recruiting-teams-championships

They were accurate at picking it 12 years in a row. That doesn't mean only teams that meet the metric can win a national championship. It means there's a very high probability that the winner of the national championship will be one of those teams.

Also, saying they did it 12 years in a row sounds neat but when you pick 10+ teams per year it's not all that amazing. There are probably lots of other ways that 10 teams can be picked and they've been correct many times in a row.

In the last 32 years, every team that ended up ranked #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 22 in the preseason poll. Okay, that's 22 teams. It's not as good, but it took me 3 minutes to find it. If Auburn hadn't won it, we could say teams ranked in the top 13 over the past 16 years.

Edit: Found another:

In the last 25 years, every team to end up #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 17 for total final AP poll appearances.

You could basically just use the metric that the only teams who can win it are the classically good teams. The teams that broke through that were Washington, Colorado, and Georgia Tech.

If they want to make a prediction that's more meaningful maybe they should combine these 3 variables and only pick 3 teams.

 

[Husker Psycho]

100% accurate. Only teams that meet the metric can win a college football national championship.

This is the most important metric ever discovered in the history of college football.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2014/2/18/5312840/college-football-recruiting-teams-championships

They were accurate at picking it 12 years in a row. That doesn't mean only teams that meet the metric can win a national championship. It means there's a very high probability that the winner of the national championship will be one of those teams.

Also, saying they did it 12 years in a row sounds neat but when you pick 10+ teams per year it's not all that amazing. There are probably lots of other ways that 10 teams can be picked and they've been correct many times in a row.

In the last 15 years, every team that ended up ranked #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 22 in the preseason poll. Okay, that's 22 teams. It's not as good, but it took me 3 minutes to find it. If Auburn hadn't won it, we could say teams ranked in the top 13 over the past 15 years.

Nope... it means there is a 100% probability that the winner of the National Championship will be one of the teams that met the metric. Each year somewhere around 7 teams in the country meet the metric.

This last season Alabama met the metric and won the National title.

The year before Ohio State met the metric and Oregon did not. Ohio State won the national title.

It's been that way for the last 12 years in a row.

This brilliant research is proof of the critical importance of high level recruiting in college football. It's mandatory if you want to win a national championship.

You may not like this fact... but unfortunately for you... it's a fact.

If Nebraska or Oregon or Notre Dame or Iowa or any college football team wants to win national titles... very high level recruiting is mandatory.

 

[Mierin]

They were accurate at picking it 12 years in a row. That doesn't mean only teams that meet the metric can win a national championship. It means there's a very high probability that the winner of the national championship will be one of those teams.

Also, saying they did it 12 years in a row sounds neat but when you pick 10+ teams per year it's not all that amazing. There are probably lots of other ways that 10 teams can be picked and they've been correct many times in a row.

In the last 15 years, every team that ended up ranked #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 22 in the preseason poll. Okay, that's 22 teams. It's not as good, but it took me 3 minutes to find it. If Auburn hadn't won it, we could say teams ranked in the top 13 over the past 15 years.

Nope... it means ]b]there is a 100% probability that the winner of the National Championship will be one of the teams that met the metric.]/b] Each year somewhere around 7 teams in the country meet the metric.

This last season Alabama met the metric and won the National title.

The year before Ohio State met the metric and Oregon did not. Ohio State won the national title.

It's been that way for the last 12 years.

This brilliant research is proof of the critical importance of high level recruiting in college football. It's mandatory if you want to win a national championship.

You may not like this fact... but unfortunately for you... it's a fact.

If Nebraska or Oregon or Notre Dame or Iowa or any college football team wants to win national titles... very high level recruiting is mandatory.

You don't understand prediction or probabilities. It's a fact that thing happened the previous 12 years. But it's a very easy prediction to make (as I've shown in my previous post) and it doesn't mean it will happen next time. I rarely agree with cm but he's right here and I'm pretty sure the 3 of us had this argument 6 months ago. He thinks you can't use the past traits of national champions to predict who might win the next one. You think there's such a thing as a 100% probability for a prediction. The truth is in between. You can use the past traits of national champions to make a very confident, high probability prediction for who the next national champion will be. It will never be 100%.

In 2009, EVERY. SINGLE. TEAM. who won the national championship since 1985 had been ranked in the Top 20 in the pre-season AP Poll. Every team in that 24 year range. Explain to me how that in any way is different than what you're saying about this, and how Auburn managed to win the championship when they did not possess that trait, when, according to you, they had a 0% probability of winning it. Maybe you should re-read what cm said about White presidents because he made the exact same point. It's the exact same thought process you're using. In 2007 you would have said it's a 100% probability that the next president will be White. You would have been wrong then, just like you're wrong now.

Now that said, I've used those 3 variables and the new coach variable to predict one of these teams will win the national championship this upcoming season (although I had to use the pre-pre season AP poll so I may have to change it):

Alabama

Arkansas

Florida

Florida State

LSU

Michigan

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Nebraska only made it for 3 of the 4 variables, so we'll have to wait until next year. Sorry, I mean there's a 99% chance we'll have to wait 'til at least next year.

 

[Husker Psycho]

They were accurate at picking it 12 years in a row. That doesn't mean only teams that meet the metric can win a national championship. It means there's a very high probability that the winner of the national championship will be one of those teams.

Also, saying they did it 12 years in a row sounds neat but when you pick 10+ teams per year it's not all that amazing. There are probably lots of other ways that 10 teams can be picked and they've been correct many times in a row.

In the last 15 years, every team that ended up ranked #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 22 in the preseason poll. Okay, that's 22 teams. It's not as good, but it took me 3 minutes to find it. If Auburn hadn't won it, we could say teams ranked in the top 13 over the past 15 years.

Nope... it means ]b]there is a 100% probability that the winner of the National Championship will be one of the teams that met the metric.]/b] Each year somewhere around 7 teams in the country meet the metric.

This last season Alabama met the metric and won the National title.

The year before Ohio State met the metric and Oregon did not. Ohio State won the national title.

It's been that way for the last 12 years.

This brilliant research is proof of the critical importance of high level recruiting in college football. It's mandatory if you want to win a national championship.

You may not like this fact... but unfortunately for you... it's a fact.

If Nebraska or Oregon or Notre Dame or Iowa or any college football team wants to win national titles... very high level recruiting is mandatory.

You don't understand prediction or probabilities. It's a fact that thing happened the previous 12 years. But it's a very easy prediction to make (as I've shown in my previous post) and it doesn't mean it will happen next time. I rarely agree with cm but he's right here and I'm pretty sure the 3 of us had this argument 6 months ago. He thinks you can't use the past traits of national champions to predict who might win the next one. You think there's such a thing as a 100% probability for a prediction. The truth is in between. You can use the past traits of national champions to make a very confident, high probability prediction for who the next national champion will be. It will never be 100%.

In 2009, EVERY. SINGLE. TEAM. who won the national championship since 1985 had been ranked in the Top 20 in the pre-season AP Poll. Every team in that 24 year range. Explain to me how that in any way is different than what you're saying about this, and how Auburn managed to win the championship when they did not possess that trait, when, according to you, they had a 0% probability of winning it. Maybe you should re-read what cm said about White presidents because he made the exact same point. It's the exact same thought process you're using. In 2007 you would have said it's a 100% probability that the next president will be White. You would have been wrong then, just like you're wrong now.

Now that said, I've used those 3 variables and the new coach variable to predict one of these teams will win the national championship this upcoming season (although I had to use the pre-pre season AP poll so I may have to change it):

Alabama

Arkansas

Florida

Florida State

LSU

Michigan

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Nebraska only made it for 3 of the 4 variables, so we'll have to wait until next year. Sorry, I mean there's a 99% chance we'll have to wait 'til at least next year.

If you agree with CM then you just don't have the intellect for this.

The color of someone's skin is not an achievement !

This metric is about achievement in recruiting and it's affect on the probability of a team winning the national title. The color of someone's skin has nothing to do with achievement in recruiting or winning a national title.

Now I'm done discussing this with you as well.

Everyone is free to read the article. They may not like the facts contained in it but they will be a much more informed football fan and will be much more able to understand the performance difference between teams.

 

[JJkinz]

100% accurate. Only teams that meet the metric can win a college football national championship.

This is the most important metric ever discovered in the history of college football.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2014/2/18/5312840/college-football-recruiting-teams-championships

They were accurate at picking it 12 years in a row. That doesn't mean only teams that meet the metric can win a national championship. It means there's a very high probability that the winner of the national championship will be one of those teams.

Also, saying they did it 12 years in a row sounds neat but when you pick 10+ teams per year it's not all that amazing. There are probably lots of other ways that 10 teams can be picked and they've been correct many times in a row.

In the last 15 years, every team that ended up ranked #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 22 in the preseason poll. Okay, that's 22 teams. It's not as good, but it took me 3 minutes to find it. If Auburn hadn't won it, we could say teams ranked in the top 13 over the past 15 years.

Nope... it means there is a 100% probability that the winner of the National Championship will be one of the teams that met the metric. Each year somewhere around 7 teams in the country meet the metric.

This last season Alabama met the metric and won the National title.

The year before Ohio State met the metric and Oregon did not. Ohio State won the national title.

It's been that way for the last 12 years in a row.

This brilliant research is proof of the critical importance of high level recruiting in college football. It's mandatory if you want to win a national championship.

You may not like this fact... but unfortunately for you... it's a fact.

If Nebraska or Oregon or Notre Dame or Iowa or any college football team wants to win national titles... very high level recruiting is mandatory.

I would highly recommend you don't play Roulette.

 

[Husker Psycho]

100% accurate. Only teams that meet the metric can win a college football national championship.

This is the most important metric ever discovered in the history of college football.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2014/2/18/5312840/college-football-recruiting-teams-championships

They were accurate at picking it 12 years in a row. That doesn't mean only teams that meet the metric can win a national championship. It means there's a very high probability that the winner of the national championship will be one of those teams.

Also, saying they did it 12 years in a row sounds neat but when you pick 10+ teams per year it's not all that amazing. There are probably lots of other ways that 10 teams can be picked and they've been correct many times in a row.

In the last 15 years, every team that ended up ranked #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 22 in the preseason poll. Okay, that's 22 teams. It's not as good, but it took me 3 minutes to find it. If Auburn hadn't won it, we could say teams ranked in the top 13 over the past 15 years.

Nope... it means there is a 100% probability that the winner of the National Championship will be one of the teams that met the metric. Each year somewhere around 7 teams in the country meet the metric.

This last season Alabama met the metric and won the National title.

The year before Ohio State met the metric and Oregon did not. Ohio State won the national title.

It's been that way for the last 12 years in a row.

This brilliant research is proof of the critical importance of high level recruiting in college football. It's mandatory if you want to win a national championship.

You may not like this fact... but unfortunately for you... it's a fact.

If Nebraska or Oregon or Notre Dame or Iowa or any college football team wants to win national titles... very high level recruiting is mandatory.

I would highly recommend you don't play Roulette.

This is about achievement and performance, not luck.

 

[JJkinz]

100% accurate. Only teams that meet the metric can win a college football national championship.

This is the most important metric ever discovered in the history of college football.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2014/2/18/5312840/college-football-recruiting-teams-championships

They were accurate at picking it 12 years in a row. That doesn't mean only teams that meet the metric can win a national championship. It means there's a very high probability that the winner of the national championship will be one of those teams.

Also, saying they did it 12 years in a row sounds neat but when you pick 10+ teams per year it's not all that amazing. There are probably lots of other ways that 10 teams can be picked and they've been correct many times in a row.

In the last 15 years, every team that ended up ranked #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 22 in the preseason poll. Okay, that's 22 teams. It's not as good, but it took me 3 minutes to find it. If Auburn hadn't won it, we could say teams ranked in the top 13 over the past 15 years.

Nope... it means there is a 100% probability that the winner of the National Championship will be one of the teams that met the metric. Each year somewhere around 7 teams in the country meet the metric.

This last season Alabama met the metric and won the National title.

The year before Ohio State met the metric and Oregon did not. Ohio State won the national title.

It's been that way for the last 12 years in a row.

This brilliant research is proof of the critical importance of high level recruiting in college football. It's mandatory if you want to win a national championship.

You may not like this fact... but unfortunately for you... it's a fact.

If Nebraska or Oregon or Notre Dame or Iowa or any college football team wants to win national titles... very high level recruiting is mandatory.

I would highly recommend you don't play Roulette.

This is about achievement, not luck.

Achievement that hasn't happened yet, so luck.

 

[Husker Psycho]

100% accurate. Only teams that meet the metric can win a college football national championship.

This is the most important metric ever discovered in the history of college football.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2014/2/18/5312840/college-football-recruiting-teams-championships

They were accurate at picking it 12 years in a row. That doesn't mean only teams that meet the metric can win a national championship. It means there's a very high probability that the winner of the national championship will be one of those teams.

Also, saying they did it 12 years in a row sounds neat but when you pick 10+ teams per year it's not all that amazing. There are probably lots of other ways that 10 teams can be picked and they've been correct many times in a row.

In the last 15 years, every team that ended up ranked #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 22 in the preseason poll. Okay, that's 22 teams. It's not as good, but it took me 3 minutes to find it. If Auburn hadn't won it, we could say teams ranked in the top 13 over the past 15 years.

Nope... it means there is a 100% probability that the winner of the National Championship will be one of the teams that met the metric. Each year somewhere around 7 teams in the country meet the metric.

This last season Alabama met the metric and won the National title.

The year before Ohio State met the metric and Oregon did not. Ohio State won the national title.

It's been that way for the last 12 years in a row.

This brilliant research is proof of the critical importance of high level recruiting in college football. It's mandatory if you want to win a national championship.

You may not like this fact... but unfortunately for you... it's a fact.

If Nebraska or Oregon or Notre Dame or Iowa or any college football team wants to win national titles... very high level recruiting is mandatory.

I would highly recommend you don't play Roulette.

This is about achievement, not luck.

Achievement that hasn't happened yet, so luck.

Performance based on achievement over the previous 4 years of recruiting.

It has noting whatsoever to do with luck.

 

[RedDenver]

100% accurate. Only teams that meet the metric can win a college football national championship.

This is the most important metric ever discovered in the history of college football.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2014/2/18/5312840/college-football-recruiting-teams-championships

They were accurate at picking it 12 years in a row. That doesn't mean only teams that meet the metric can win a national championship. It means there's a very high probability that the winner of the national championship will be one of those teams.

Also, saying they did it 12 years in a row sounds neat but when you pick 10+ teams per year it's not all that amazing. There are probably lots of other ways that 10 teams can be picked and they've been correct many times in a row.

In the last 15 years, every team that ended up ranked #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 22 in the preseason poll. Okay, that's 22 teams. It's not as good, but it took me 3 minutes to find it. If Auburn hadn't won it, we could say teams ranked in the top 13 over the past 15 years.

Nope... it means there is a 100% probability that the winner of the National Championship will be one of the teams that met the metric. Each year somewhere around 7 teams in the country meet the metric.

This last season Alabama met the metric and won the National title.

The year before Ohio State met the metric and Oregon did not. Ohio State won the national title.

It's been that way for the last 12 years in a row.

This brilliant research is proof of the critical importance of high level recruiting in college football. It's mandatory if you want to win a national championship.

You may not like this fact... but unfortunately for you... it's a fact.

If Nebraska or Oregon or Notre Dame or Iowa or any college football team wants to win national titles... very high level recruiting is mandatory.

I would highly recommend you don't play Roulette.

This is about achievement, not luck.

Achievement that hasn't happened yet, so luck.

Performance based on achievement over the previous 4 years of recruiting.

It has noting whatsoever to do with luck.

I hope you're just trolling; otherwise, you get an F in logical reasoning.

 

[Mierin]

100% accurate. Only teams that meet the metric can win a college football national championship.

This is the most important metric ever discovered in the history of college football.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2014/2/18/5312840/college-football-recruiting-teams-championships

They were accurate at picking it 12 years in a row. That doesn't mean only teams that meet the metric can win a national championship. It means there's a very high probability that the winner of the national championship will be one of those teams.
Also, saying they did it 12 years in a row sounds neat but when you pick 10+ teams per year it's not all that amazing. There are probably lots of other ways that 10 teams can be picked and they've been correct many times in a row.

In the last 15 years, every team that ended up ranked #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 22 in the preseason poll. Okay, that's 22 teams. It's not as good, but it took me 3 minutes to find it. If Auburn hadn't won it, we could say teams ranked in the top 13 over the past 15 years.

Nope... it means there is a 100% probability that the winner of the National Championship will be one of the teams that met the metric. Each year somewhere around 7 teams in the country meet the metric.

This last season Alabama met the metric and won the National title.

The year before Ohio State met the metric and Oregon did not. Ohio State won the national title.

It's been that way for the last 12 years in a row.

This brilliant research is proof of the critical importance of high level recruiting in college football. It's mandatory if you want to win a national championship.

You may not like this fact... but unfortunately for you... it's a fact.

If Nebraska or Oregon or Notre Dame or Iowa or any college football team wants to win national titles... very high level recruiting is mandatory.

I would highly recommend you don't play Roulette.

This is about achievement, not luck.

Achievement that hasn't happened yet, so luck.

Performance based on achievement over the previous 4 years of recruiting.

It has noting whatsoever to do with luck.

I hope you're just trolling; otherwise, you get an F in logical reasoning.

Is there a grade of less than an F? If ever there was, this would be the time to give it.

 

[JJkinz]

Winning football games has a luck component. You cannot predict any outcome based solely on past results, while ignoring all other factors. To argue otherwise is factually incorrect. And you've made numerous factually incorrect statements in this thread.

Also, why is your magical number 12? I didn't see you on this board saying this is the holy grail of predictors when they only had 9 seasons in a row. At what number of correctly predicted seasons in a row did you consider them 100% accurate at predicting the next season's outcome?

 

[Mierin]

They were accurate at picking it 12 years in a row. That doesn't mean only teams that meet the metric can win a national championship. It means there's a very high probability that the winner of the national championship will be one of those teams.

Also, saying they did it 12 years in a row sounds neat but when you pick 10+ teams per year it's not all that amazing. There are probably lots of other ways that 10 teams can be picked and they've been correct many times in a row.

In the last 15 years, every team that ended up ranked #1 in the final AP poll was ranked in the top 22 in the preseason poll. Okay, that's 22 teams. It's not as good, but it took me 3 minutes to find it. If Auburn hadn't won it, we could say teams ranked in the top 13 over the past 15 years.

Nope... it means ]b]there is a 100% probability that the winner of the National Championship will be one of the teams that met the metric.]/b] Each year somewhere around 7 teams in the country meet the metric.

This last season Alabama met the metric and won the National title.

The year before Ohio State met the metric and Oregon did not. Ohio State won the national title.

It's been that way for the last 12 years.

This brilliant research is proof of the critical importance of high level recruiting in college football. It's mandatory if you want to win a national championship.

You may not like this fact... but unfortunately for you... it's a fact.

If Nebraska or Oregon or Notre Dame or Iowa or any college football team wants to win national titles... very high level recruiting is mandatory.

You don't understand prediction or probabilities. It's a fact that thing happened the previous 12 years. But it's a very easy prediction to make (as I've shown in my previous post) and it doesn't mean it will happen next time. I rarely agree with cm but he's right here and I'm pretty sure the 3 of us had this argument 6 months ago. He thinks you can't use the past traits of national champions to predict who might win the next one. You think there's such a thing as a 100% probability for a prediction. The truth is in between. You can use the past traits of national champions to make a very confident, high probability prediction for who the next national champion will be. It will never be 100%.

In 2009, EVERY. SINGLE. TEAM. who won the national championship since 1985 had been ranked in the Top 20 in the pre-season AP Poll. Every team in that 24 year range. Explain to me how that in any way is different than what you're saying about this, and how Auburn managed to win the championship when they did not possess that trait, when, according to you, they had a 0% probability of winning it. Maybe you should re-read what cm said about White presidents because he made the exact same point. It's the exact same thought process you're using. In 2007 you would have said it's a 100% probability that the next president will be White. You would have been wrong then, just like you're wrong now.

Now that said, I've used those 3 variables and the new coach variable to predict one of these teams will win the national championship this upcoming season (although I had to use the pre-pre season AP poll so I may have to change it):

Alabama

Arkansas

Florida

Florida State

LSU

Michigan

Notre Dame

Ohio State

Nebraska only made it for 3 of the 4 variables, so we'll have to wait until next year. Sorry, I mean there's a 99% chance we'll have to wait 'til at least next year.

If you agree with CM then you just don't have the intellect for this.

The color of someone's skin is not an achievement !

This metric is about achievement in recruiting and it's affect on the probability of a team winning the national title. The color of someone's skin has nothing to do with achievement in recruiting or winning a national title.

Now I'm done discussing this with you as well.

Everyone is free to read the article. They may not like the facts contained in it but they will be a much more informed football fan and will be much more able to understand the performance difference between teams.

It's not relevant here. We're not arguing which is the better predictor; race or recruiting. We're talking about whether it's possible to predict something with 100% probability. If you can't understand that it's not possible, you shouldn't be discussing this at all. It's a very simple concept. I sincerely hope you NEVER talk probability with any impressionable minds. To someone (99% of this forum) who has a basic understanding of probability, you sound like someone arguing that 1+1 = 3. Why don't you ask the authors of the article about this and see what they say.

Also, you didn't answer my question about Auburn. For 24 years no one ranked worse than 20 in the preseason AP poll won a national championship. Using YOUR logic, there was a 0% probability Auburn would win the next one. Tell me how that happened.