FBS Power 5 Conference Stats plus Top 25 plus Huskers' measured improvement

[beorach]

Moiraine had asked for this so I figured I may as well share with everyone (since it was already composed):

BIG Team offensive composite z-scores
Michigan 1.33
Ohio State 1.18
Maryland 0.26
Nebraska 0.23
Penn State 0.14
Indiana -0.01
Iowa -0.03
Northwestern -0.15
Minnesota -0.29
Michigan State -0.39
Wisconsin -0.42
Purdue -0.60
Illinois -0.96
Rutgers -1.44


BIG Team defensive composite z-scores
Michigan 2.11
Ohio State 1.70
Wisconsin 1.50
Minnesota 1.05
Nebraska 0.88
Iowa 0.77
Indiana 0.43
Penn State 0.29
Northwestern 0.20
Maryland 0.16
Michigan State -0.32
Illinois -0.50
Rutgers -1.05
Purdue -1.06

SEC Team offensive composite z-scores
Alabama 1.19
Auburn 1.04
Texas A&M 0.61
LSU 0.45
Mississippi 0.43
Missouri 0.07
Kentucky -0.03
Florida -0.10
Mississippi State -0.11
Tennessee -0.18
Arkansas -0.21
Georgia -0.44
South Carolina -0.90
Vanderbilt -1.13

SEC Team defensive composite z-scores
Florida 2.16
Alabama 1.77
LSU 1.52
Auburn 1.05
South Carolina 0.62
Georgia 0.52
Vanderbilt 0.42
Texas A&M 0.24
Mississippi State 0.18
Tennessee -0.08
Kentucky -0.11
Mississippi -0.74
Missouri -0.79
Arkansas -0.90



ACC Team offensive composite z-scores
Louisville 1.95
Pittsburgh 0.90
Florida State 0.55
Virginia Tech 0.49
Clemson 0.33
North Carolina 0.12
Syracuse 0.09
Georgia Tech 0.09
Miami (Florida) -0.24
Virginia -0.31
North Carolina State -0.40
Duke -0.48
Wake Forest -1.04
Boston College -1.09

ACC Team defensive composite z-scores
Louisville 1.13
Clemson 1.03
Virginia Tech 0.91
Miami (Florida) 0.68
Boston College 0.63
North Carolina State 0.50
Wake Forest 0.49
North Carolina 0.28
Georgia Tech 0.10
Duke -0.18
Florida State -0.34
Virginia -0.37
Pittsburgh -0.60
Syracuse -0.85


Big XII Team offensive composite z-scores
Oklahoma 1.64
Baylor 1.29
Texas Tech 1.27
Texas 0.78
Oklahoma State 0.63
West Virginia 0.39
TCU 0.27
Kansas State -0.13
Iowa State -0.25
Kansas -1.38

Big XII Team defensive composite z-scores
West Virginia 0.77
Baylor 0.68
TCU 0.27
Kansas State 0.13
Oklahoma -0.12
Oklahoma State -0.42
Texas -0.52
Iowa State -0.66
Kansas -1.08
Texas Tech -1.68


Pac-12 Team offensive composite z-scores
Washington 1.40
Oregon 1.18
California 1.00
Washington State 0.87
Colorado 0.56
USC 0.44
Utah 0.12
Arizona State -0.05
Arizona -0.20
UCLA -0.28
Oregon State -0.46
Stanford -1.01

Pac-12 Team defensive composite z-scores
Colorado 1.09
Washington 0.94
Stanford 0.80
UCLA 0.59
Washington State 0.54
USC 0.40
Utah 0.31
Oregon State -0.61
Arizona -0.66
Arizona State -1.07
California -1.15
Oregon -1.58


P5 Conferences Ranked Offensively (averaging what's above)

Big XII 0.45

Pac-12 0.3

ACC 0.07

SEC 0.05

B1G -0.08

P5 Conferences Ranked Defensively (averaging what's above)

B1G 0.44

SEC 0.42

ACC 0.24

Pac-12 -0.03

Big XII -0.26

 

[Nebfanatic]

Almost as you would expect the offense and defensive scores for the conferences directly inverted

 

[beorach]

Here's the Top 25 with strength of schedule factored in... The accompanying numbers are the weighted, composite z-scores.

Michigan 1.402
Alabama 1.273
Ohio State 1.211
Louisville 1.059
Washington 0.872
Auburn 0.865
LSU 0.794
Colorado 0.756
Florida 0.702
Western Michigan 0.642
Washington State 0.634
Baylor 0.617
Virginia Tech 0.539
San Diego State 0.532
Oklahoma 0.517
Clemson 0.500
Wisconsin 0.453
Houston 0.444
West Virginia 0.439
Nebraska 0.432
Texas A&M 0.397
Appalachian State 0.382
Troy 0.370
USC 0.360
Boise State 0.354

 

[beorach]

I'm noticing websites and personalities giving Nebraska credit despite the loss to Wisconsin. I thought I should tack on another post here that shows our team's z-scores from the full regular season of 2015 and compare them to today's (only counting the games against other FBS teams, as usual).

Nebraska regular season z-scores: 2015 full / 2016 to date

pass offense: -0.08 / -0.21

pass defense: -0.66 / 0.95

rush offense: 0.08 / 0.49

rush defense: 0.85 / 0.44

scoring offense: 0.44 / 0.44

scoring defense: 0.10 / 1.32

total offense: 0.39 / 0.21

total defense: -0.01 / 0.83

turnover margin: -1.00 / 0.46

defensive composite z-score: 0.07 / 0.88

offensive composite z-score: 0.21 / 0.23

overall composite z-score: 0.01 / 0.55

 

[Nebfanatic]

I'm noticing websites and personalities giving Nebraska credit despite the loss to Wisconsin. I thought I should tack on another post here that shows our team's z-scores from the full regular season of 2015 and compare them to today's (only counting the games against other FBS teams, as usual).

Nebraska regular season z-scores: 2015 full / 2016 to date

pass offense: -0.08 / -0.21

pass defense: -0.66 / 0.95

rush offense: 0.08 / 0.49

rush defense: 0.85 / 0.44

scoring offense: 0.44 / 0.44

scoring defense: 0.10 / 1.32

total offense: 0.39 / 0.21

total defense: -0.01 / 0.83

turnover margin: -1.00 / 0.46

defensive composite z-score: 0.07 / 0.88

offensive composite z-score: 0.21 / 0.23

overall composite z-score: 0.01 / 0.55

does this overall z score not count strength of schedule? Offense doesn't really have a net gain but man our defense is leaps and bounds ahead of last year

 

[beorach]

I'm noticing websites and personalities giving Nebraska credit despite the loss to Wisconsin. I thought I should tack on another post here that shows our team's z-scores from the full regular season of 2015 and compare them to today's (only counting the games against other FBS teams, as usual).

Nebraska regular season z-scores: 2015 full / 2016 to date

pass offense: -0.08 / -0.21

pass defense: -0.66 / 0.95

rush offense: 0.08 / 0.49

rush defense: 0.85 / 0.44

scoring offense: 0.44 / 0.44

scoring defense: 0.10 / 1.32

total offense: 0.39 / 0.21

total defense: -0.01 / 0.83

turnover margin: -1.00 / 0.46

defensive composite z-score: 0.07 / 0.88

offensive composite z-score: 0.21 / 0.23

overall composite z-score: 0.01 / 0.55

does this overall z score not count strength of schedule? Offense doesn't really have a net gain but man our defense is leaps and bounds ahead of last year

That's correct. No SOS adjustment was made for the numbers above. I have data in the old spreadsheet printout I was looking at but I used my own method then...such that it wouldn't be apples to apples if I tried to adjust stats now anyway.

 

[AFhusker]

I have several dumb questions. What in the blue hell is a "Z Score?" And what is considered average, good, and bad by that system? How do you come up with those numbers? This is sounding similar to some of the analytic stats in baseball that take forever to understand.

 

[SuperBigFan69]

I have several dumb questions. What in the blue hell is a "Z Score?" And what is considered average, good, and bad by that system? How do you come up with those numbers? This is sounding similar to some of the analytic stats in baseball that take forever to understand.

Ha...I was thinking the same exact things!

How about we just make it easy...

1. Do you score more points than the other team?

2. Do you win games?

 

[Nebfanatic]

I'm noticing websites and personalities giving Nebraska credit despite the loss to Wisconsin. I thought I should tack on another post here that shows our team's z-scores from the full regular season of 2015 and compare them to today's (only counting the games against other FBS teams, as usual).

Nebraska regular season z-scores: 2015 full / 2016 to date

pass offense: -0.08 / -0.21

pass defense: -0.66 / 0.95

rush offense: 0.08 / 0.49

rush defense: 0.85 / 0.44

scoring offense: 0.44 / 0.44

scoring defense: 0.10 / 1.32

total offense: 0.39 / 0.21

total defense: -0.01 / 0.83

turnover margin: -1.00 / 0.46

defensive composite z-score: 0.07 / 0.88

offensive composite z-score: 0.21 / 0.23

overall composite z-score: 0.01 / 0.55

does this overall z score not count strength of schedule? Offense doesn't really have a net gain but man our defense is leaps and bounds ahead of last year

That's correct. No SOS adjustment was made for the numbers above. I have data in the old spreadsheet printout I was looking at but I used my own method then...such that it wouldn't be apples to apples if I tried to adjust stats now anyway.

ok that makes sense! Obviously the Z scores don't tell you everything but this is a great look at how we have been producing and I love the comparison to last year. Great work!!

 

[beorach]

I have several dumb questions. What in the blue hell is a "Z Score?" And what is considered average, good, and bad by that system? How do you come up with those numbers? This is sounding similar to some of the analytic stats in baseball that take forever to understand.

I didn't hear that term (z-score) in the one basic stats class I took forever ago but it's nothing complicated. The z-score is just the difference between a stat and the mean for that stat, expressed in terms of standard deviations. Take your data and get a mean and standard deviation. Let's say it's rushing yards per carry. To get the z-score for your team, you take the difference between its posted stat and the mean first...and then divide by the standard deviation. I'm taking the average of these z-scores to get a composite figure (which I'm still calling a z-score - I suppose that's confusing, to be fair) to serve as a rating for nine categories - see below for an example for one of them. Those categories are passing d&o, rushing d&o, scoring d&o, total d&o, and turnover margin.

Another thing I'm doing is having all the good stats be positive. It's self-explanatory that you want your yards given up to be low...such that a good z-score would be a negative number. I flip that for consistency, though. The only other thing I'm doing is pruning games against FCS teams. The stats I'm running calculations with are only those from games between FBS teams.

Here's an example from a category with very few stats (to make it easy on all of us):

Nebraska's rushing yards per carry is 4.5

The national average for rushing yards per carry is 4.38

The standard deviation for the national stats is 0.88

To get the z-score for this stat, I work this out:

(4.5 - 4.38) / 0.88 = 0.13

Nebraska's rushing TD's per game is 2.38

The national average is 1.77

The standard deviation is 0.71

Nebraska's z-score for this stat is 0.85 (higher than for rushing yards per carry, so a better posting for the Big Red)

Nebraska's rushing yards per game is 204

The national average is 176.90

The standard deviation is 54.34

Nebraska's z-score for this stat is 0.50 (better than yards per carry but not so good, relative to the national stats, as TD's per game)

I then take the average of these three z-scores to come up with what I've called the composite z-score for rushing offense, 0.49

p.s. - I didn't crank all these figures out on a calculator but just typed what I had in my spreadsheet...so there might be small differences if you work this out yourself.

 

[beorach]

I have several dumb questions. What in the blue hell is a "Z Score?" And what is considered average, good, and bad by that system? How do you come up with those numbers? This is sounding similar to some of the analytic stats in baseball that take forever to understand.

Ha...I was thinking the same exact things!

How about we just make it easy...

1. Do you score more points than the other team?

2. Do you win games?

By easy, do you mean redundant? I mean, if you score more points than the other team, isn't that the "same exact" thing?