*Redux CFP analysis and prediction*

I don't agree at all. Ohio State or Michigan is the best team in the B1G this year. One of them is going to beat the other. If Ohio State wins, neither of them make the championship game. If Wisconsin beats Penn State, our champ will have lost to the two best teams in the B1G. If Penn State wins, our champ will have gotten curb stomped by one of the best teams in the B1G.

I don't get where so many things have to happen for the conference champ not to be the best in their conference. Heck, it wasn't even that many years ago that the declared National Champion didn't even win their conference. We're looking at something this year very similar to 1996. Texas won the Big 12. They were 8-5 that year. They weren't even close to being the best team in the conference. Nebraska, Colorado, and KState all ended up being ranked higher at season's end. It's very similar to how things could shake out this year.

 
Really don't see Colorado beating Wazzu and Utah. They only have 1 win against a team with a winning record. They are without a doubt the biggest pretenders in the top 10.

 
junior4949 said:
I don't agree at all. Ohio State or Michigan is the best team in the B1G this year. One of them is going to beat the other. If Ohio State wins, neither of them make the championship game. If Wisconsin beats Penn State, our champ will have lost to the two best teams in the B1G. If Penn State wins, our champ will have gotten curb stomped by one of the best teams in the B1G.

I don't get where so many things have to happen for the conference champ not to be the best in their conference. Heck, it wasn't even that many years ago that the declared National Champion didn't even win their conference. We're looking at something this year very similar to 1996. Texas won the Big 12. They were 8-5 that year. They weren't even close to being the best team in the conference. Nebraska, Colorado, and KState all ended up being ranked higher at season's end. It's very similar to how things could shake out this year.
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I agree that tOSU and Michigan are the best teams in the conference. But they both lost when they couldn't afford to, thems the brakes. Win the games that matter most, reap the spoils. That's how sports works.

Answer me this, if Wisconsin loses to Minny and Nebraska wins out and somehow manages to find a win in Indy, are you not going to look at that as an achievment? Granted, we got curb stomped by the best league team and may not play the other if PSU is the division winner. But is it not an accomplishment?

That's why I like the idea of 8 team playoff having the 5 champs plus 3 at large. Of the 5 champs, most of the time 4 of them will be the best team in the conference anyway.

 
1995 Redux said:
junior4949 said:
I don't agree at all. Ohio State or Michigan is the best team in the B1G this year. One of them is going to beat the other. If Ohio State wins, neither of them make the championship game. If Wisconsin beats Penn State, our champ will have lost to the two best teams in the B1G. If Penn State wins, our champ will have gotten curb stomped by one of the best teams in the B1G.

I don't get where so many things have to happen for the conference champ not to be the best in their conference. Heck, it wasn't even that many years ago that the declared National Champion didn't even win their conference. We're looking at something this year very similar to 1996. Texas won the Big 12. They were 8-5 that year. They weren't even close to being the best team in the conference. Nebraska, Colorado, and KState all ended up being ranked higher at season's end. It's very similar to how things could shake out this year.
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I agree that tOSU and Michigan are the best teams in the conference. But they both lost when they couldn't afford to, thems the brakes. Win the games that matter most, reap the spoils. That's how sports works.

Answer me this, if Wisconsin loses to Minny and Nebraska wins out and somehow manages to find a win in Indy, are you not going to look at that as an achievment? Granted, we got curb stomped by the best league team and may not play the other if PSU is the division winner. But is it not an accomplishment?

That's why I like the idea of 8 team playoff having the 5 champs plus 3 at large. Of the 5 champs, most of the time 4 of them will be the best team in the conference anyway.
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Yes, I will look at it as a heck of an achievement. However, let me ask you a question. If we would happen to make it and somehow beat Penn State, do you think we should be in the playoff? This is the entire point of why I'm against the power 5's getting an automatic slot because we're pretty far removed from one of the best four or even eight teams in the country. Ohio State showed us how far we have left to go. If Wisconsin would happen to beat Penn State, I don't think they should get in either because they lost to two conference opponents. You say both lost when they couldn't afford to, but just who exactly has Wisconsin beat? They haven't beaten anyone in the current AP top 10. At season's end, they may not have even defeated an AP top 25 team. It's somehow Michigan and Ohio States fault that they're in the toughest division?

Here is one thing I will concede. The other day I believe it was Mavric who stated power 5 champs should get automatic slots in an eight team playoff if they're top 10-12 in the polls. I can live with that, but I will say top 10. If a power 5 champion isn't in the top 10 at season's end, no way should they get an automatic slot.

 
It doesn't matter who wins the Big Ten, unless Michigan or Ohio State wins it, our champion won't get in. An at large will. The champion will have to settl for a conference championship because they lost 2 games instead of Ohio State's 1.

It's the same concept I'm pushing. You're saying the better teams should get in over the team that happened to win the conference because that team lost when it couldn't afford to. If Penn State would have either beatne Pitt or Michigan, this whole discussion is moot.

And I would be perfectly fine with requiring a certain ranking for conference champions to get in with 2 losses or more. But the thing is, even if they have 2 losses, they will probably be ranked pretty high if they win their league. 2012 Wisconsin was such an anomoly that it likely won't be repeated ever again.

 
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1995 Redux said:
It doesn't matter who wins the Big Ten, unless Michigan or Ohio State wins it, our champion won't get in. An at large will. The champion will have to settl for a conference championship because they lost 2 games instead of Ohio State's 1.

It's the same concept I'm pushing. You're saying the better teams should get in over the team that happened to win the conference because that team lost when it couldn't afford to. If Penn State would have either beatne Pitt or Michigan, this whole discussion is moot.

And I would be perfectly fine with requiring a certain ranking for conference champions to get in with 2 losses or more. But the thing is, even if they have 2 losses, they will probably be ranked pretty high if they win their league. 2012 Wisconsin was such an anomoly that it likely won't be repeated ever again.
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Do not agree. If Wisconsin wins the Big 10 championship, especially if they won over Michigan, they would clearly have a better resume than Louisville. Even if they just beat a top 10 PSU they would have a much better resume than Louisville. Especially considering what's happening right now (Louisville Houston). Let's face it Wisconsin has alot of great wins and 2 "good losses" add a conference title they are in.

The argument with OSU is a little bit muddier if PSU is the East representative, but that won't matter if Washington slips up at any point. Wisconsin will have a better resume than the Huskies or OU as will the Buckeyes, I could see them both getting in at that point

 
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Louisville has essentially played themself out of an at large bid. They had to win out to get in, and even if they comeback in the 2nd half it will be tough.

If we consider 2 spots filled, Bama and tOSU, that leaves two. If Louisville's at large is gone that opens up some possibilities.

Most likely, Washington (if they can beat Wazzu and win title game)

Next most likely, either PSU/Wiscy.

Next most likely, Oklahoma if they win the Big 12.

 
1995 Redux said:
Louisville has essentially played themself out of an at large bid. They had to win out to get in, and even if they comeback in the 2nd half it will be tough.

If we consider 2 spots filled, Bama and tOSU, that leaves two. If Louisville's at large is gone that opens up some possibilities.

Most likely, Washington (if they can beat Wazzu and win title game)

Next most likely, either PSU/Wiscy.

Next most likely, Oklahoma if they win the Big 12.
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Clemson?
 
I'm guessing the only potential 2-loss B1G champ that doesn't get in is NU.

Those suggesting voting in conference champions for an 8-team playoff, isn't that already what's done now? The same committee will choose who they think should be in and simply rank accordingly. The only difference is 8 teams instead of 4 teams.

 
Nebfanatic said:
1995 Redux said:
Louisville has essentially played themself out of an at large bid. They had to win out to get in, and even if they comeback in the 2nd half it will be tough.

If we consider 2 spots filled, Bama and tOSU, that leaves two. If Louisville's at large is gone that opens up some possibilities.

Most likely, Washington (if they can beat Wazzu and win title game)

Next most likely, either PSU/Wiscy.

Next most likely, Oklahoma if they win the Big 12.
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Clemson?
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Yeah that was part of my post, I must have deleted that sentence?

Clemson and Bama are my picks to be 1 & 2 respectively.

 
IMO Ohio State and Alabama are clearly the two best teams in the country. There are serval valid arguments that can be made for teams to fill the last two spots in the playoffs. One was taken away last night by Louisville losing. Who do I think will end up in the playoffs? I don't think some people will like it but this is how I expect it to turn out at this point.

1) Alabama--Doesn't matter if they lose to Auburn, they will still kill whoever they play in the SEC CCG as the East is terrible.

2) Ohio State--This is where the complaints will start to come as I expect them to beat UM in the same manner that they did last year in the big house. But by winning that game, they will send Penn State to the Big 10 CCG as the winner of the West Division by way of the head to head tie breaker. But they will be in because they are a blue blood that is peaking at the right time and it won't matter that they didn't get to even play for their Conference Championship. Not to mention IMO when they are not bored with being so much better than anyone on their schedule, an argument could easily be made that they are the best team in the country.

3) Clemson--Yes the ACC is a terrible conference in football, but they only have one loss and will be the Conference Champion. The committee will remember that they almost beat Alabama in the National Championship game last year which shouldn't matter. With that being said, the ACC is better than the PAC 12 so they are the second best 1 loss team left.

4) Wisconsin--if they beat Penn State in the Big 10 Championship game. (Which I fully expect them to do) I don't think PSU will get in with 2 losses if they win the Big 10 Championship game due to one of their losses being to Pitt (even though they beat Clemson) and then getting blown out by Michigan. This will infuriate the PAC 12 if Washington wins the conference with 1 loss. But the only way I see them getting in is if PSU beats Wisconsin in the CCG in this scenario. Even then the committee could still prove me wrong about PSU and put them in over Washington because of the Ohio State win and the Pitt game being close and early in the year.

Michigan would be in if they won in Columbus and then beat Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship Game and that would put them in the #2 spot. Then just replace Wisconsin with Washington if they win out in the #4 seed in this scenario.

IMO nobody else should be in the conversation as the Big 12 has had a bad year to say the least. Any talk of Oklahoma sneaking back in is bogus IMO. I really don't know how they are in the top 10 with the losses and lack of quality wins they have.

 
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Nebfanatic said:
1995 Redux said:
It doesn't matter who wins the Big Ten, unless Michigan or Ohio State wins it, our champion won't get in. An at large will. The champion will have to settl for a conference championship because they lost 2 games instead of Ohio State's 1.

It's the same concept I'm pushing. You're saying the better teams should get in over the team that happened to win the conference because that team lost when it couldn't afford to. If Penn State would have either beatne Pitt or Michigan, this whole discussion is moot.

And I would be perfectly fine with requiring a certain ranking for conference champions to get in with 2 losses or more. But the thing is, even if they have 2 losses, they will probably be ranked pretty high if they win their league. 2012 Wisconsin was such an anomoly that it likely won't be repeated ever again.
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Do not agree. If Wisconsin wins the Big 10 championship, especially if they won over Michigan, they would clearly have a better resume than Louisville. Even if they just beat a top 10 PSU they would have a much better resume than Louisville. Especially considering what's happening right now (Louisville Houston). Let's face it Wisconsin has alot of great wins and 2 "good losses" add a conference title they are in.

The argument with OSU is a little bit muddier if PSU is the East representative, but that won't matter if Washington slips up at any point. Wisconsin will have a better resume than the Huskies or OU as will the Buckeyes, I could see them both getting in at that point
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What great wins has Wisconsin had? Their overtime win at home against us? If we lose to Iowa which is highly likely if Armstrong can't go, we end the season unranked. Was it their win against LSU? The LSU that fired their coach who is playing better ball without him but still might very well end the season unranked? When we look back at the 2016 season, it is likely Wisconsin will have beat no team ranked at season's end during the regular season. Wisconsin is a good team, but they're not a great team.

I would give the nod to Penn State having a better resume than Wisconsin. They've beat the #2 team in the country. The early loss to Pitt is also not looking so bad considering Pitt just beat Clemson. The only way I see the B1G getting two teams in is if Penn State wins the B1G and Ohio State gets the at large.

 
Since Louisville went ahead and ruined my original prediction, I'd say the rest remains intact.

1-Bama

2-Clemson

3-Ohio State

4th spot is open for a few teams:

-Washington. Had to win out and beat Colorado (most likely) in title game. A trip to Wazzu may prove to be too much though, a loss keeps them out of title game.

-Penn State. Has to beat Rutgets, MSU and likely Wiscy in title game. Their 2 losses weren't "quality losses", probably ends up hurting them.

-Wisconsin. Has to beat Purdue and Minny, then likely Penn State in title game. Both their losses are "quality". Could be just enough.

-Michigan. If they manage to knock off tOSU they get to Indy to face Wiscy, a win there gives them the spot over Washington hands down.

-Oklahoma. This is a stretch, but if Washington fails to win the Pac 12 and Nebraska fell into a Big Ten title by sheer luck, then MAYBE the Sooners would be the 4th spot at 10-2.

-Western Michigan. If the Sooners have a snowballs chance....

-Tennessee or Florida. If they can beat Bama in the title game....LMAO, TOTES J/K!

 
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