College Football Locks
- Thread starter teachercd
- Start date
Mierin
Assistant Coach
I've never bet on anything in my life and don't know how it works so someone answer me this.
If someone came up with an algorithm that correctly predicted the winner 80% of the time for 10 seasons and shared it and everyone started using it, would people start making a lot less money gambling on that sport?
If someone came up with an algorithm that correctly predicted the winner 80% of the time for 10 seasons and shared it and everyone started using it, would people start making a lot less money gambling on that sport?
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teachercd
Head Coach
I think what would happen is the "house" would just start to change the odds. So, yeah, people would probably start making less money.
Right now you usually have to pay out 110 dollars on a 100 dollar bet if you lose. I would guess that would change to like 150 payout on a 100 dollar bet if you lost. If people were winning at such a huge rate. Also, if you do come up with that algorithm please send it to me!
Mierin
Assistant Coach
I'd think if you included the crappy matchups like Alabama vs Chatanooga Train Engineering Community College, 70% wouldn't be hard but those games wouldn't make you much money.
But being correct 70% of the time on games between top 40 teams would probably be pretty good. But I have doubts about whether statistics would be better than gut feeling of someone who's knowledgable.
JJ Husker
Assistant Coach
Moiraine- Anything that could be used to predict 70% or 80% winners would be extremely superior to gut feeling. Heck, if a person could exceed about 55% they could make money gambling football. But, the problem with your shared algorithm example is that Vegas still sets lines and odds. The line moves based on action on specific games. So, they more money that gets bet on one team, the more the line moves to that teams disadvantage. It's much more a task of identifying favorable odds and lines than it is predicting winning teams. I don't think any algorithm could be successful at doing that since it is a moving target.
teachercd
Head Coach
JJ Husker
Assistant Coach
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JJ Husker
Assistant Coach
Congratulations for winning the REGULAR season trophy but we've got bowl games to go yet....;-)
Actually, take it, it's yours (unless Mav or Admo want to take a run at it) Not sure I care enough at this point. The last couple of weeks I didn't really have a good feeling about any of the games I picked. Just figured I'd pick 3 and hope to go 2-1. Bowl games are typically not conducive to gambling. Too many extraneous factors to consider.
teachercd
Head Coach
