SBNation: If Vegas is right about these 8 college football teams, will they fire their coaches?

[NUinID]

To circle back to the original post/article... The national guys don't seem to be sold on what NU is doing right now. Sure, there's recruiting hype, but NU still needs to win games. I've been surprised at how many of the guys I read/listen to were so lukewarm on the Diaco hire. Maybe that trepidation on behalf of the media is what lead to the initial Vegas predictions of 6-7 wins. And make no mistake, a 6 or 7 win season is a massive failure.

I think the lack of buy in by most of the national guys, is two fold.

1. The way the team finished last season. NU finsished on a downward turn. The only games anyone remembers are the last couple. They remember NU losing to Iowa. The fact that TA was about 50% for the game really doesn't enter the picture. They got beat badly by a Tenn team and didn't look good letting it happen. Contrast that with a win the year before against a solid UCLA team that no one gave them a chance at winning. Those are the games they remember.

2. There is a lot of unknown about this team. It is easy to pick them to lose when they don't know much about the skill players and having a new DC. I didn't see a lot of predictions over 7 wins for Penn St last year either. Now they are a legit playoff contender in lots of experts minds.

 

[Saunders]

To circle back to the original post/article... The national guys don't seem to be sold on what NU is doing right now. Sure, there's recruiting hype, but NU still needs to win games. I've been surprised at how many of the guys I read/listen to were so lukewarm on the Diaco hire. Maybe that trepidation on behalf of the media is what lead to the initial Vegas predictions of 6-7 wins. And make no mistake, a 6 or 7 win season is a massive failure.

I think the lack of buy in by most of the national guys, is two fold.

1. The way the team finished last season. NU finsished on a downward turn. The only games anyone remembers are the last couple. They remember NU losing to Iowa. The fact that TA was about 50% for the game really doesn't enter the picture. They got beat badly by a Tenn team and didn't look good letting it happen. Contrast that with a win the year before against a solid UCLA team that no one gave them a chance at winning. Those are the games they remember.

2. There is a lot of unknown about this team. It is easy to pick them to lose when they don't know much about the skill players and having a new DC. I didn't see a lot of predictions over 7 wins for Penn St last year either. Now they are a legit playoff contender in lots of experts minds.

Very true, and that's my (probably unrealistic) hope for NU this year. It may start rough, including a loss @ Oregon, but if we could follow that up with wins against Wisconsin and Iowa (and play OSU and PSU close), I'd probably consider that a success.

 

[Caliborn72]

I remember basically everyone being underwhelmed with the Riley hire, but there were enough good reviews from peers and analysts for excitement. Didn't help that his initial staff was underwhelming too, but I also can understand how much he'd value continuity and being able to trust his staff. I'm not entirely sure that the all-star staff he has been assembling would have worked right from the jump.

I will say that I've seen several teams make the transition to a 3-4 and it has been a mess the first year every single time. I'm not saying it's going to be like that this year, but having chatted with friends and family, they seem to think having enough linebackers is the only hard part. The DLine makes such a drastic change that it's almost like playing a different sport. Those 3 guys have to be some of the most selfless athletes in all of sports.

Donte Williams has been an ace recruiter so far, which is everything I assumed of him from articles and stuff after the hire. But I really haven't read anything to his coaching acumen, it's all just his recruiting chops. And watching Arizona football the last couple years, I don't know that I'd have wanted to hire any of their defensive coaches until he came into the fold. I'll be interested to see how he does.

I went from being cautiously optimistic a few months ago to hoping for no meltdowns and less than 4 losses. We will see. All of my recent worries could be for nothing.

 

[NUinID]

To circle back to the original post/article... The national guys don't seem to be sold on what NU is doing right now. Sure, there's recruiting hype, but NU still needs to win games. I've been surprised at how many of the guys I read/listen to were so lukewarm on the Diaco hire. Maybe that trepidation on behalf of the media is what lead to the initial Vegas predictions of 6-7 wins. And make no mistake, a 6 or 7 win season is a massive failure.

I think the lack of buy in by most of the national guys, is two fold.

1. The way the team finished last season. NU finsished on a downward turn. The only games anyone remembers are the last couple. They remember NU losing to Iowa. The fact that TA was about 50% for the game really doesn't enter the picture. They got beat badly by a Tenn team and didn't look good letting it happen. Contrast that with a win the year before against a solid UCLA team that no one gave them a chance at winning. Those are the games they remember.

2. There is a lot of unknown about this team. It is easy to pick them to lose when they don't know much about the skill players and having a new DC. I didn't see a lot of predictions over 7 wins for Penn St last year either. Now they are a legit playoff contender in lots of experts minds.

Very true, and that's my (probably unrealistic) hope for NU this year. It may start rough, including a loss @ Oregon, but if we could follow that up with wins against Wisconsin and Iowa (and play OSU and PSU close), I'd probably consider that a success.

I don't think it is unrealistic to think this is a 9 win team.

I don't get all the love for Oregon. They have been trending downward ever since Mariota left. Not unlike Nebraska after Crouch graduated. I just have a hard time seeing that team all of a sudden winning 10 games. They may win 8 but that is the top end IMO

I don't get Nebraska all of a sudden losing to Northwestern and Minnesoata either like a lot of people predict.

I guess I can see Iowa beating NU, but they lost a lot of good players.

I am just am just excited for this team after watching the spring game. I guess I liked what I saw.

 

[Saunders]

I will say that I've seen several teams make the transition to a 3-4 and it has been a mess the first year every single time. I'm not saying it's going to be like that this year, but having chatted with friends and family, they seem to think having enough linebackers is the only hard part. The DLine makes such a drastic change that it's almost like playing a different sport. Those 3 guys have to be some of the most selfless athletes in all of sports.

Hmm, IDK. Off the top of my head both Wisconsin and LSU recently switched from a 4-3 (granted, it was Dave Aranda both times) and they were better (if not significantly better) in the 3-4. Do you know which teams you're thinking of? I'd like to check out the numbers.

 

[Saunders]

To circle back to the original post/article... The national guys don't seem to be sold on what NU is doing right now. Sure, there's recruiting hype, but NU still needs to win games. I've been surprised at how many of the guys I read/listen to were so lukewarm on the Diaco hire. Maybe that trepidation on behalf of the media is what lead to the initial Vegas predictions of 6-7 wins. And make no mistake, a 6 or 7 win season is a massive failure.

I think the lack of buy in by most of the national guys, is two fold.

1. The way the team finished last season. NU finsished on a downward turn. The only games anyone remembers are the last couple. They remember NU losing to Iowa. The fact that TA was about 50% for the game really doesn't enter the picture. They got beat badly by a Tenn team and didn't look good letting it happen. Contrast that with a win the year before against a solid UCLA team that no one gave them a chance at winning. Those are the games they remember.

2. There is a lot of unknown about this team. It is easy to pick them to lose when they don't know much about the skill players and having a new DC. I didn't see a lot of predictions over 7 wins for Penn St last year either. Now they are a legit playoff contender in lots of experts minds.

Very true, and that's my (probably unrealistic) hope for NU this year. It may start rough, including a loss @ Oregon, but if we could follow that up with wins against Wisconsin and Iowa (and play OSU and PSU close), I'd probably consider that a success.

I don't think it is unrealistic to think this is a 9 win team.

I don't get all the love for Oregon. They have been trending downward ever since Mariota left. Not unlike Nebraska after Crouch graduated. I just have a hard time seeing that team all of a sudden winning 10 games. They may win 8 but that is the top end IMO

I don't get Nebraska all of a sudden losing to Northwestern and Minnesoata either like a lot of people predict.

I guess I can see Iowa beating NU, but they lost a lot of good players.

I am just am just excited for this team after watching the spring game. I guess I liked what I saw.

It don't expect Oregon to be a 10 win team, but we barely beat them last year, and I fully expect their offense to be legit scary, better than last years for sure. So, even with a bad defense that's going to be really tough.

Then you have Wisconsin (who we're 1-5 against), Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa.

That could very well be 5 losses right there.

 

[NUinID]

I remember basically everyone being underwhelmed with the Riley hire, but there were enough good reviews from peers and analysts for excitement. Didn't help that his initial staff was underwhelming too, but I also can understand how much he'd value continuity and being able to trust his staff. I'm not entirely sure that the all-star staff he has been assembling would have worked right from the jump.

I will say that I've seen several teams make the transition to a 3-4 and it has been a mess the first year every single time. I'm not saying it's going to be like that this year, but having chatted with friends and family, they seem to think having enough linebackers is the only hard part. The DLine makes such a drastic change that it's almost like playing a different sport. Those 3 guys have to be some of the most selfless athletes in all of sports.

Donte Williams has been an ace recruiter so far, which is everything I assumed of him from articles and stuff after the hire. But I really haven't read anything to his coaching acumen, it's all just his recruiting chops. And watching Arizona football the last couple years, I don't know that I'd have wanted to hire any of their defensive coaches until he came into the fold. I'll be interested to see how he does.

I went from being cautiously optimistic a few months ago to hoping for no meltdowns and less than 4 losses. We will see. All of my recent worries could be for nothing.

Could you name a couple of them, because I think it is an easier move to the 3-4 than back to the 4-3. If you have the LB's, which I think NU has it can be a really good switch. I think Luke Gifford is going to thrive in this defense. He is a prototypical OLB for the 3-4. Young will be much better inside than outside. Lots of young talent at LB Barry, Furguson, and Avery are all going to play. LBs are easier to find than really good d tackles.

Everyone is worried about the nose. I think it is way overblown that the nose has to be 6'1" 325. Stanfords nose, Harrison Phillips, plays at about 290 and should be at Nebraska. Wisconsin played most of the year with a nose that was about 290. SToltenberg will be about 315.

I am excited about the switch.

 

[Toe]

A thought that scares me is that they didn't show the 3-4 in the spring game not because they didn't want it on film, but because they were so awful at executing it...

 

[Saunders]

A thought that scares me is that they didn't show the 3-4 in the spring game not because they didn't want it on film, but because they were so awful at executing it...

Eh, I don't think so. The consensus out of the spring by the local media was that the defense was owning the offense.

 

[NUinID]

To circle back to the original post/article... The national guys don't seem to be sold on what NU is doing right now. Sure, there's recruiting hype, but NU still needs to win games. I've been surprised at how many of the guys I read/listen to were so lukewarm on the Diaco hire. Maybe that trepidation on behalf of the media is what lead to the initial Vegas predictions of 6-7 wins. And make no mistake, a 6 or 7 win season is a massive failure.

I think the lack of buy in by most of the national guys, is two fold.

1. The way the team finished last season. NU finsished on a downward turn. The only games anyone remembers are the last couple. They remember NU losing to Iowa. The fact that TA was about 50% for the game really doesn't enter the picture. They got beat badly by a Tenn team and didn't look good letting it happen. Contrast that with a win the year before against a solid UCLA team that no one gave them a chance at winning. Those are the games they remember.

2. There is a lot of unknown about this team. It is easy to pick them to lose when they don't know much about the skill players and having a new DC. I didn't see a lot of predictions over 7 wins for Penn St last year either. Now they are a legit playoff contender in lots of experts minds.

Very true, and that's my (probably unrealistic) hope for NU this year. It may start rough, including a loss @ Oregon, but if we could follow that up with wins against Wisconsin and Iowa (and play OSU and PSU close), I'd probably consider that a success.

I don't think it is unrealistic to think this is a 9 win team.

I don't get all the love for Oregon. They have been trending downward ever since Mariota left. Not unlike Nebraska after Crouch graduated. I just have a hard time seeing that team all of a sudden winning 10 games. They may win 8 but that is the top end IMO

I don't get Nebraska all of a sudden losing to Northwestern and Minnesoata either like a lot of people predict.

I guess I can see Iowa beating NU, but they lost a lot of good players.

I am just am just excited for this team after watching the spring game. I guess I liked what I saw.

It don't expect Oregon to be a 10 win team, but we barely beat them last year, and I fully expect their offense to be legit scary, better than last years for sure. So, even with a bad defense that's going to be really tough.

Then you have Wisconsin (who we're 1-5 against), Ohio State, Penn State, and Iowa.

That could very well be 5 losses right there.

I an not saying you think that about Oregon I have seen some expert talk about them doing that. There is a lot of very optomistic talk going around about Oregon. I don't think Iowa is as good next year. Wisconsin will be good like always, but I don't see them being better than last year. I truely think Nebraska will be a better team next year.

 

[Mavric]

A thought that scares me is that they didn't show the 3-4 in the spring game not because they didn't want it on film, but because they were so awful at executing it...

Eh, I don't think so. The consensus out of the spring by the local media was that the defense was owning the offense.

Which might be the scary part - a brand new defense having their way with an offense that had been at least a pretty decent degree in place for a couple years.

I don't actually think we were running as different of a defense as many are trying to claim. We had the boundary OLB with his hand down and the Field OLB covering the slot. Just a slight variation of the base defense.

 

[Caliborn72]

The teams I can recall making the switch recently and struggling from it were Kentucky, Colorado State, and Washington State. Back when Cal made the switch several years ago, they just got run over every game. I live in Colorado now and Colorado State's defense was just a disaster all year last year.

I have no doubt we could see a major improvement but I can also see why national guys are skeptical or in wait and see mode. Either way, I'm ready for the season to get here and see what Diaco and crew can do!

 

[Mavric]

Moved a bunch of tangentially-related posts here.

 

[Saunders]

The teams I can recall making the switch recently and struggling from it were Kentucky, Colorado State, and Washington State. Back when Cal made the switch several years ago, they just got run over every game. I live in Colorado now and Colorado State's defense was just a disaster all year last year.

I have no doubt we could see a major improvement but I can also see why national guys are skeptical or in wait and see mode. Either way, I'm ready for the season to get here and see what Diaco and crew can do!

I'll dig into the numbers, but it seems to me that those were already bad defenses, so the switch wasn't really to blame. I'll see what I can find.

 

[Saunders]

To circle back to the original post/article... The national guys don't seem to be sold on what NU is doing right now. Sure, there's recruiting hype, but NU still needs to win games. I've been surprised at how many of the guys I read/listen to were so lukewarm on the Diaco hire. Maybe that trepidation on behalf of the media is what lead to the initial Vegas predictions of 6-7 wins. And make no mistake, a 6 or 7 win season is a massive failure.

On that note, I'm waiting for all the rest of the pre-season previews to come out... but it's not looking pretty so far. If I had to bet right now, we're going to be predictied to finish in the 3-4 range in our division, which is pretty bad.

So, it's not just Mavric, or me, or any of the others here who aren't full of sunshine, being pessimists. I guarantee that every person on this board wants to see NU succeed. It seems that nobody outside the state of Nebraska believes in NU. And right now, all we as fans have to go on is hope, which is the same thing we've been doing for nearly 2 decades. At some point, reality starts to kick in.

To follow up on this, current preseason predictions for NU average out to 4th behind Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Iowa. That's... not good.

http://preseason.stassen.com/consensus/2017.html