4-8 (or 3-9) Is Now Exceedingly Likely

Oh you Huskers fans, put down the knife and the gun, and come in off the ledge.  You'll beat Rutgers without breaking a sweat, and Illinois with a little more effort.  Things will look a lot brighter a lot less dark in a few weeks.

 
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With the injuries this week - I'm not all that sure about Rutgers.  Ill will be pumped to knock us off in their place - knowing we are at a low point. They will see it as one of their few opportunities.  Good Grief - Purdue and Minny now look like world beaters compared to us.  All it takes is the right coach.  :facepalm:

 
If we're playing devil's advocate, we're also four plays from being undefeated, so maybe it's not entirely true that we'll win maybe two games.

Just like all the Tanner Lee hype coming into the season required pumping the brakes, it's time to pump the brakes on "we're going to lose every game" from here on out.  Wait & see is the best approach.

At this point, I'd be terrified if I were Ohio State, Wisconsin or Penn State.  This is looking like just the kind of weird craptastic year that Riley pulls a stunning top-ten defeat out of his hat. 

 
Yes, these odds are based on a team that slots around Arkansas State and Northern Illinois in level going up against a B1G conference schedule.

However, I think there's good reason to suspect that this isn't the actual level of the team. They just fell on their faces early. It happens. It's about data points, I guess. If you take the one-game snapshot of Michigan losing to Appalachian State for example -- and that was the season opener -- your data-driven models are going to figure this is a team that would get killed in conference play. Instead, they finished 9-4 after going 0-2 (getting blown out by an Oregon team that also finished 9-4). 

As the sample size increases we're likely to see Nebraska drift back towards the mean expected performance. But who knows. Implosion is always possible.

 
Zoogs - you sound so cool, collected and LOGICAL.   While the rest of us (Ok I'll speak for myself) are in the :ahhhhhhhh mode.

And Knapp, it is possible for us to get the MR upset with one of those teams.  And technically, we are 4 plays from being undefeated.  I think however, we are playing more like a 0-3 team vs a 3-0 team.  We have to remember that Oregon took their foot off of the gas - if they hadn't it could have looked much worse.  

 
Haha, @TGHusker, I'm actually pulling my hair out. The on-field performance is a flaming mess right now. It's just that when we talk about what is "likely" or not, let's remember why a data model might say 4-8 is likely. Because of the small sample of bad data. We know that's not how it works, though.

On the other hand, it probably occurs to all of us right now that 4-8 / 3-9 is actually possible. Which is to say the freakouts are well merited at this point. We are definitely playing, to date, like a team that will get manhandled by the Rutgerses of the world, which I suppose we'll find out this week.

 
Isn't that depressing? I don't know how they are going to shift the mindset of this team. Everyone plays so flat. They don't have basic fundamentals down. These are both coaching problems. 

 
2017 Schedule & Results



Record: 1-2 | Second-order wins (diff.): 1.6 (0.6) | S&P+ Rk: 44


Date


Opponent


Opp. S&P+ Rk


Score


W-L


Win
Expectancy


Adj. Scoring
Margin


Percentile
Performance


Off.
Percentile


Def.
Percentile


2-Sep


Arkansas State


79


43-36


W


75%


6.2


64%


77%


37%


9-Sep


at Oregon


24


35-42


L


2%


-17.8


22%


63%


9%


16-Sep


Northern Illinois


77


17-21


L


77%


6.8


65%


25%


82%


Date


Opponent


Opp. S&P+ Rk


Win
Probability


Proj.
W-L


Proj.
Margin


Proj.
Score


Cumulative
Proj. Wins


23-Sep


Rutgers


82


77%


W


12.6


29.9 - 17.3


1.77


29-Sep


at Illinois


90


70%


W


8.9


30.5 - 21.6


2.46


7-Oct


Wisconsin


8


25%


L


-11.4


19.8 - 31.2


2.72


14-Oct


Ohio State


3


19%


L


-15.4


19.5 - 34.9


2.91


28-Oct


at Purdue


71


60%


W


4.3


30.1 - 25.8


3.50


4-Nov


Northwestern


43


56%


W


2.4


28.4 - 25.9


4.06


11-Nov


at Minnesota


48


46%


L


-1.9


23.6 - 25.5


4.51


18-Nov


at Penn State


4


13%


L


-19.2


18.3 - 37.5


4.65


24-Nov


Iowa


42


56%


W


2.4


26.0 - 23.6


5.20





https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pages/2017-nebraska-advanced-statistical-profile

5 wins from S&P+

 
zoogs said:
Yes, these odds are based on a team that slots around Arkansas State and Northern Illinois in level going up against a B1G conference schedule.

However, I think there's good reason to suspect that this isn't the actual level of the team. They just fell on their faces early. It happens. It's about data points, I guess. If you take the one-game snapshot of Michigan losing to Appalachian State for example -- and that was the season opener -- your data-driven models are going to figure this is a team that would get killed in conference play. Instead, they finished 9-4 after going 0-2 (getting blown out by an Oregon team that also finished 9-4). 

As the sample size increases we're likely to see Nebraska drift back towards the mean expected performance. But who knows. Implosion is always possible.
Click to expand...


Your point about sample size is merited, but this is 3 games, not 1.... and while the scores were all relatively close, the other data is really, really bad.  

#97/130 in total defense

#114/130 in passing defense (yds/gm allowed)

#46/130 in rushing defense (yds/gm) - so we've got that going for us, but no one will run when the pass makes them hundreds of yards per game

#60/130 in total offense

#92/130 in rushing offense (yds/gm)

#47/130 in passing offense (yds/gm)  - and given that we are throwing 40-50+ times per game, this is not nearly as good as it looks

So we can hope that this is an aberration, but the fact that this is 3 games of data points (almost 1/4 of the season) means that is looking less and less likely.

But again, anything can happen, that's why they play the games, so I guess we will see.  

 
neepster said:
So, the latest power rankings now have us (best case) predicted to be 4-8 (with likely wins only over Rutgers and Illinois).  And that is using the best possible methods of calculating the odds.  Realistically

 we could be 3-9 or even worse.  Best case seems to be maybe 5-7, but the team would have to get significantly better.

View attachment 11538

You can play with the math but things don't look good...

Oh and their estimate is a 0.1% chance of winning the division....
Click to expand...


IMG_0753.JPG

 
knapplc said:
If we're playing devil's advocate, we're also four plays from being undefeated, so maybe it's not entirely true that we'll win maybe two games.

Just like all the Tanner Lee hype coming into the season required pumping the brakes, it's time to pump the brakes on "we're going to lose every game" from here on out.  Wait & see is the best approach.

At this point, I'd be terrified if I were Ohio State, Wisconsin or Penn State.  This is looking like just the kind of weird craptastic year that Riley pulls a stunning top-ten defeat out of his hat. 
Click to expand...


I'm pretty sure neither tOSU or PSU is even slightly worried at this point.  Our 1/20 calculated chance of beating them is not high enough to worry about (not even if it is 2x better than that and we have a 1/10 chance of winning).

Wisky might be a bit worried, but if I was them I'd just prepare for what I've seen so far from Nebraska and know that since we don't adjust until halftime (if then), you can probably keep doing whatever is working for 1/2 the game if not longer.

 
Am I correct in saying that a boneheaded pass from the opponents 3 was the difference in the game.... a 14 point swing?

Wasn't this something we discussed on a ten page thread .... that we're Nebraska; 2nd n goal on the 3 you run it in?

I didn't see most of the first half, is this true? Are they still that inept?

Somebody please tell me this isn't true.

 
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