Yeah, it's going to take something like that. Probably even a little more. Won't surprise me if their scenario happens - obviously not too far-fetched. The question is what would it take for the Committee to put them in the Top 4.
As they said, their scenario would have only Alabama and Miami with fewer than two losses. But that doesn't get them in above a two-loss, Big XII champion Oklahoma for sure. Maybe if they don't win the Big XII. But I doubt it would get them in over a two-loss, Big XII champ TCU either. So there would probably need to be more chaos in the Big XII.
They also wouldn't be in over a two-loss, B1G champ Ohio State. And it's far from a given that they'd be in over a two-loss Pac-12 champ.
And they said that in the article. They were just wondering how an undefeated UCF would stack up against two-loss teams from the Power 5. I don't think they'd get the nod. I'd say there would have to be at least a couple three-loss Power 5 champions for them to have a shot.