SI Mailbag: What Are Realistic Short-Term Expectations for Nebraska?

[Redux]

I don't think apathy is the right word here. There is plenty of excitement going around as shown by the spring game sellout and the resurgence in season tickets. The Riley failure has left people uncertain as to how far this team has fallen. If you don't know where the starting point is, it can be harder to predict the finish. People are expecting this could take a few years, since that's what the AD and head coach also said. While I believe 6-6 is low, I can see it happening because we honestly don't know how good this team will be this year or how the season will play out.

If we were going from Bo Pelini 9-4 to Scott Frost 12-0 coming from UCF would anyone say that 6-6 is a reasonable goal for year one?  I HIGHLY doubt it.  The expectation of being a Purdue level team has set into a lot of fans mindset, and even though we are jazzed as hell about the native son taking us back to prominence, we remember how easy it is to go 4-8 and it terrifies us.  Thus, people are setting the bar at 6-6.

Could it happen?  Absolutely, the murderers row schedule coule be everything it is on paper.  But  I'm expecting to surprise the crap out of a couple of those "guaranteed loss" teams.

 

[Stumpy1]

I will be happy if we end up anywhere between 5-7 and 13-0.  

 

[Landlord]

I guess I just don't understand why it's stupid or worthy of mockery for your expectations to be relatively proportionate to the circumstances and factors of how good you've been? 

No, I wouldn't say 6-6 was reasonable if we were coming off of a Bo 9-4 season. Because that team is obviously better than a Riley 4-8 team. Better records, more talent, proven data points, etc. = higher expectations. That seems like common sense to me  :dunno

Expectations as far as, 'How do you think this team will actually do given what you know?' should be based off of evidence. That has nothing to do with apathy, or PTSD, or compromise of standards or anything like that. It's just saying, 'Hey, this team doesn't have a lot of talent and has performed very poorly lately.' I expect next year's team to be better than last year's team, because I think the coaching staff is better. I also think the team in two years will be better than this year's team. 

Expectations as far as, 'This is what we think the result of our money/resources/history/commitment should be', as a bigger picture, should be a different conversation. Maybe people are just confusing different definitions of the word, but I don't see why people talking about the first definition and having the opinion that we'll win __ amount of games should be something that's insulted by others.

 

[brophog]

I mean, sure Purdue could win, but they also couldn't beat the worst Nebraska team in nearly 50 years last season. Do you think they'll improve more than Nebraska does this season, and win in Lincoln? Because I don't.

Purdue will become the team people thought they were this year, which is actually a massive jump. 

 

[Redux]

No, I wouldn't say 6-6 was reasonable if we were coming off of a Bo 9-4 season. Because that team is obviously better than a Riley 4-8 team. Better records, more talent, proven data points, etc. = higher expectations. That seems like common sense to me  :dunno

Expectations as far as, 'How do you think this team will actually do given what you know?' should be based off of evidence. That has nothing to do with apathy, or PTSD, or compromise of standards or anything like that. It's just saying, 'Hey, this team doesn't have a lot of talent and has performed very poorly lately.' I expect next year's team to be better than last year's team, because I think the coaching staff is better. I also think the team in two years will be better than this year's team.

 Is expecting 7 or more wins unrealistic or naive?

Can Frost change the culture in one year?

 

[Landlord]

 Is expecting 7 or more wins unrealistic or naive?

Can Frost change the culture in one year?

First question, maybe. But that's an incredibly subjective, opinion based thing, so I don't really hold it against anyone. I think it's certainly possible, but I don't expect it. To be fair, though, I don't really ever expect anything one way or the other. I just hope and enjoy the ride.

Second question, yes. But it's possible for Frost to change the culture immediately, and for us to go 6-6 next year. If the schedule works out to be as strong as it seems right now, a .500 season would be a huge improvement over last season, but not something anyone would obviously be pumped about long term or big picture.

 

[KingBlank]

 Is expecting 7 or more wins unrealistic or naive?

Can Frost change the culture in one year?

1. No

2. Yes

 

[Redux]

Well, I was called unrealistic and naive for thinking we are capable of winning 7 or more.  If that really makes me naive, so be it.  Last I checked this is Nebraska, not Purdue.

I was also told a coach cannot change the culture in one year.  I would say he already has in 2 months.  And I understand the point you're making, many have said the same thing.  But 6-6 is just not a huge improvement, not in my eyes.  If it happens and we lost 6 games by a combined 10 or so points and hung with all those big teams and even beat one......it's 2015 all over again.  A year where we had to convince ourselves less than .500 was okay because we weren't getting blown out, because our schedule was "tough", because it was a transition year, because it was a new system etc.

I'm tired of excuses.  The goal is and always has been "win the division".  That's the goal now, as it should be.  If we don't, it won't be the end of the world.  But I don't believe for one second this team is as bad as our last record indicated.

 

[Landlord]

If it happens and we lost 6 games by a combined 10 or so points and hung with all those big teams and even beat one......it's 2015 all over again. 

A very huge difference being that the 2015 team was following a 9-4 season, and was a huge disappointment because it was a regression from what we knew was possible.

What we know is possible is 4-8. What we believe is possible is something better than that. I think most people don't really care how many wins we have in year one, as long as the season speaks to the idea that, "Okay, obviously we are in better hands, you can see it on the field, and we are on the right trajectory."

If you want to look at it just in terms of numbers, 9-4 to 5-7 (6-7***) is a huge disappointment because of the direction. 4-8 to 6-6 isn't something to throw a parade over, but is something most people can be excited about because of the direction.

 

[Redux]

If you want to look at it just in terms of numbers, 9-4 to 5-7 (6-7***) is a huge disappointment because of the direction. 4-8 to 6-6 isn't something to throw a parade over, but is something most people can be excited about because of the direction.

A 6-6 record would not excite me whatsoever.  But it wouldn't have to because I know what this staff is capable of doing in year 2.  But if we manage to lose 6 it's going to raise some questions.  I don't consider the 4-8 record a representation of the team considering almost everyone, staff and players, had given up by November.

 

[huskerfan333157]

Well, I was called unrealistic and naive for thinking we are capable of winning 7 or more.  If that really makes me naive, so be it.  Last I checked this is Nebraska, not Purdue.

I wad alsp told a coach cannot change the culture in one year.  I would say he already has in 2 months.  And I understand the point you're making, many have said the same thing.  But 6-6 is just not a huge improvement, not in my eyes.  If it happens and we lost 6 games by a combined 10 or so points and hung with all those big teams and even beat one......it's 2015 all over again.  A year where we had to convince ourselves less than .500 was okay because we weren't getting blown out, because our schedule was "tough", because it was a transition year, because it was a new system etc.

I'm tired of excuses.  The goal is and always has been "win the division".  That's the goal now, as it should be.  If we don't, it won't be the end of the world.  But I don't believe for one second this team is as bad as our last record indicated.

I said you're being naive because you think there is NO WAY Nebraska would finish 6-6 this year and thats being naive.  Also, expecting 8 or 9 wins with so many unknown variables is unrealistic.  You're also "expecting" us to compete for a big ten championship which is also unrealistic in year 1.  Frost will be a great coach but that's too much to expect in year 1, imo.

 

[Mierin]

I think confidence might be misinterpreted as apathy in this topic. I realize it sounds weird but hear me out.

I don't care if we go 6-6 in year 1 because I'm so confident in Frost that I know we'll be good to great by year 2 or 3 and 6-6 will likely be by far the worst record we have in the next 20 years. So I don't care, but it's because I know we'll be good and I'm patient. Year 1 doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. I'll take whatever happens, believing that we'll most likely be winning the west (or more) by 2020.

 

[Stumpy1]

I think confidence might be misinterpreted as apathy in this topic. I realize it sounds weird but hear me out.

I don't care if we go 6-6 in year 1 because I'm so confident in Frost that I know we'll be good to great by year 2 or 3 and 6-6 will likely be by far the worst record we have in the next 20 years. So I don't care, but it's because I know we'll be good and I'm patient. Year 1 doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. I'll take whatever happens.

This right here!!!

 

[Redux]

I said you're being naive because you think there is NO WAY Nebraska would finish 6-6 this year and thats being naive.  Also, expecting 8 or 9 wins with so many unknown variables is unrealistic.  You're also "expecting" us to compete for a big ten championship which is also unrealistic in year 1.  Frost will be a great coach but that's too much to expect in year 1, imo.

No, you called me naive for saying we could win 7 or more games.  Page 2 if you want to go back and look.  And I'm fairly confident I never said anything about competing for a conference crown in year one, division maybe.

You're honestly telling me 6-6 is realistic, but 7-5 is unrealistic....verbatim?  And you're honestly telling me Purdue is a tossup?  I couldn't disagree with both more.  I think this is a 7 or 8 win team, 9 if things go right.  Purdue is not a loss.  7-5 or better is not too much to expect, and I'll  go back to the bery first point I tried to make, and it's only being used as a measuring stick because of how awful the last staff ended up being.

 

[huskerfan333157]

A 6-6 record would not excite me whatsoever.  But it wouldn't have to because I know what this staff is capable of doing in year 2.  But if we manage to lose 6 it's going to raise some questions.  I don't consider the 4-8 record a representation of the team considering almost everyone, staff and players, had given up by November.

How could losing 6 raise some questions?  Anyone that knows football knows it can take time to grasp a scheme.  You're talking about college kids who don't have all day to study a playbook.  Everyone knows it could take time to change the culture.  Year 2 is where most coaches really do an amazing job.

Bob stoops: 7-5 first year then 12-0 the next 

Nick Saban: 7-6 first year 12-2 the next 

Dabo swinney: 7-6 first year 11-2 in year 5

Pete carroll: 7-6 first year, 11-2 in next 

Jimmy johnson: 8-5 first year, 10-2 the next 

Jim harbaugh: 4-8 first year then 12-1 in 4th year.

Bear Bryant: 5-4 first year 8-1 the next.

Bobby Bowden: 5-6 in year 1, 10-2 the next.

John McKay: 4-6 first year, 11-0 next 

Joe Paterno: 5-5 first year, 8-2 next 

Woody Hayes: 4-3 first year, 10-0 3 years later 

I think confidence might be misinterpreted as apathy in this topic. I realize it sounds weird but hear me out.

I don't care if we go 6-6 in year 1 because I'm so confident in Frost that I know we'll be good to great by year 2 or 3 and 6-6 will likely be by far the worst record we have in the next 20 years. So I don't care, but it's because I know we'll be good and I'm patient. Year 1 doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. I'll take whatever happens, believing that we'll most likely be winning the west (or more) by 2020.

Agreed.