2018 Season Predictions
- Thread starter Mavric
- Start date
Scarlet Overkill
All-Conference
Jeremy
Starter
6-6 probable, 7-5 maybe. I want success as bad as anyone, but objectively and realistically, they just aren't there yet, not even that close. Very little depth in the secondary, and I'll be surprised if many of these linemen are agile enough for the pull and reach blocking schemes against a legit 4 front. Frost has already said as much pertaining to technique, speed, and decision making.
Getting to a bowl game will be a big accomplishment, and we need to be patient as these guys rebuild this thing. The good news is that we don't have a coaching staff that is going to put up with lackluster, going through the motions play like we've seen for too long. I think we have guys that will do whatever it takes to turn this thing around, but we aren't there. Yet.
Getting to a bowl game will be a big accomplishment, and we need to be patient as these guys rebuild this thing. The good news is that we don't have a coaching staff that is going to put up with lackluster, going through the motions play like we've seen for too long. I think we have guys that will do whatever it takes to turn this thing around, but we aren't there. Yet.
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ladyhawke
All-Conference
Don't throw anything at me but I voted 6-6 because this is a transitional year. They have a lot of work to do and in such a short time. I hope I am totally wrong. I do think they will be better as the year goes on and I think they will win their bowl game.
They are already headed in the right direction! GBR
They are already headed in the right direction! GBR
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I'm not saying we don't have a tough schedule but I think people are getting stuck on looking at the tough games. The flip side of having all the tough games on the road is we have most of the "easy" games at home which makes that part of the schedule very manageable.
We have Akron, Colorado, Troy, Purdue, Minnesota and Illinois all at home. Those aren't guaranteed wins but you have to like our chances in all of those games. That's six.
At Northwestern and at Iowa are tougher but still games we have every reason to think we can compete in.
The other four games - @ Michigan, @ Wisconsin, @ Ohio State and Michigan State - are not expected wins by any means but it wouldn't be shocking to steal one of them.
Even if we go 5-1 in the first group and 1-1 in the second, that's six wins. It wouldn't be the end of the world to win fewer than six but I'd be surprised by that. I think 6-7 wins is reasonable but 8 or even 9 are there for the taking.
We have Akron, Colorado, Troy, Purdue, Minnesota and Illinois all at home. Those aren't guaranteed wins but you have to like our chances in all of those games. That's six.
At Northwestern and at Iowa are tougher but still games we have every reason to think we can compete in.
The other four games - @ Michigan, @ Wisconsin, @ Ohio State and Michigan State - are not expected wins by any means but it wouldn't be shocking to steal one of them.
Even if we go 5-1 in the first group and 1-1 in the second, that's six wins. It wouldn't be the end of the world to win fewer than six but I'd be surprised by that. I think 6-7 wins is reasonable but 8 or even 9 are there for the taking.
Making Chimichangas
Banned
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I think that's fairly well-reasoned.
I'm still sitting at a best case scenario of 7, maybe eight wins. I would be a tad surprised and a little disappointed with anything five wins or less.
I've made the point Mav is making several times, it's a great point. The reason it's not more commonly cited is because SOS filters are designed to be universal. But they are not, or maybe you could say shouldn't be, because some games it doesn't matter much if it's at home or not due to the margin between teams.
It's a difficult schedule either way, but I think Nebraska can run the home slate, I really do. Troy will get everyone's attention after last year and they lose a lot of experienced production. Great coach, though, glad this one is early. Michigan St is another one circled, but I just don't have much respect for them. There is just such a gulf between what people think of them and their actual production in about any given year. It's like they get the respect of a blue blood with the expectations of a mid major. One of my favorite metrics is yards per play differential, you'll see me cite it a lot when trying to evaluate how good a team is compared to their record. Michigan St was a 10 win team....out gained their opponents by +0.3 yards per play. Your typical top 10 caliber team is in the 1.5-2.0 ypp range. Riley's best year, his first, was at +0.2. (Cited for context) By Pythagorean win expectation, another good "double check metric" Michigan St expected win total was 8-5 last year.
The home game that scares me as much as any is Purdue. They had such a difficult time last year converting on plays that were there for the taking. They were overvalued, IMO, last year, but they fit the profile of a team that should be much better.
It's a difficult schedule either way, but I think Nebraska can run the home slate, I really do. Troy will get everyone's attention after last year and they lose a lot of experienced production. Great coach, though, glad this one is early. Michigan St is another one circled, but I just don't have much respect for them. There is just such a gulf between what people think of them and their actual production in about any given year. It's like they get the respect of a blue blood with the expectations of a mid major. One of my favorite metrics is yards per play differential, you'll see me cite it a lot when trying to evaluate how good a team is compared to their record. Michigan St was a 10 win team....out gained their opponents by +0.3 yards per play. Your typical top 10 caliber team is in the 1.5-2.0 ypp range. Riley's best year, his first, was at +0.2. (Cited for context) By Pythagorean win expectation, another good "double check metric" Michigan St expected win total was 8-5 last year.
The home game that scares me as much as any is Purdue. They had such a difficult time last year converting on plays that were there for the taking. They were overvalued, IMO, last year, but they fit the profile of a team that should be much better.
Mierin
Assistant Coach
I think we'll beat Michigan State or Iowa. Possibly both.
Wisconsin is a team we've played close lately, so maybe Frost pulls that off too.
Ohio St is really the only one I'd put in another group, that's a very tough one. Michigan is that catalyst game....don't expect to win it, but if you do then it can create a positive snowball.
I think this game could be a really fascinating matchup. For starters, Michigan's defense should be pretty good and it'll be interesting to see how capable the offense is of attacking it by that point in the season. Both teams should also be undefeated even though they open the season on the road at Notre Dame. Also, as you mentioned, it could be a game that really sets the tone for the remainder of the season and injects confidence in the team if they're able to win.
And, it shouldn't be forgotten that Frost is probably itching for another shot at Harbaugh after UCF was blown out (at least in terms of the final score) a couple years ago.
VectorVictor
Heisman Trophy Winner
Making Chimichangas said:
I guess whomever had Making chimichangas in the Huskerboard pool for 'most likely to tacitly implicate themselves in the death of one or more Escorts', please PM me to collect your prize.
