500 Mile Radius

[BigRedBuster]

So I did some digging.  And this could and probably should get moved elsewhere but I looked at offers and commits to 500 mile radius states from 2008 up to 2019 so far.  I didn't look into exact dates of when a prospect committed and to what coach.  This was specifically a "Nebraska" recruiting effort.

500 mile radius states I included were:  Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin

2008:  168 total offers.  34 to radius=20%.  11 radius commits=32% success

2009:  109 total offers.  16 to radius=15%.  4 radius commits=25% success

2010:  82 total offers.  21 to radius=26%.  11 radius commits=52% success

2011:  96 total offers.  13 to radius=14%.  6 radius commits=46% success

2012:  126 total offers.  16 to radius=13%.  5 radius commits=33% success

2013:  224 total offers.  30 to radius=13%.  6 radius commits=20% success

2014:  305 total offers.  52 to radius=17%.  9 radius commits=17% success

2015:  250 total offers.  26 to radius=10%.  8 radius commits=31% success

2016:  279 total offers.  36 to radius=13%.  10 radius commits=27% success

2017:  280 total offers.  31 to radius=11%.  6 radius commits=19% success

2018:  279 total offers.  32 to radius=11%.  5 radius commits=16% success

2019:  378 total offers.  42 to radius=11%.  7 radius commits=17% success.

I took this info from 247.  2008 and 2009 are a little weird in that they seem to account for walk ons in the "Commits" page.  But either way, it appears Bo started off strong in the offers to radius players and was pretty successful.  Starting in 2012 you see a shift away from it that has continued through 2019 so far.  So the last 2 and the current coach (so far) are all about the same with regards to their recruiting attention to radius states and players.

Take it fwiw.

Really???

From last year (mostly Riley's offers) to this year, we have seen a 31% increase in offers within the 500 mile radius.  This is with most of a coaching staff that doesn't have long relationships yet in those HSs.  In fact, this staff has offered more within that radius than any year on that list except one.

 

[StPaulHusker]

I think you offer kids who fit your system and you have a real shot to land them whether they are in 500 mile radius or not. If you can have a real shot at landing better talent and it is 600 miles away then I would rather get that kid than offering someone who is less talented or doesnt fit your system as well just because they are within 500 miles. Kinda silly when you really think about it. Make sure you bring home the top talent around for sure- but take the best talent you can get.

I don't necessarily disagree but that really wasn't the point of the conversation.  The statements that were made were that Frost and Co "means" to recruit the area more than the last coach or past coaches and that Bo was putting in more effort than Riley.  

So far, Frost is right at Riley levels but it's very early.  And Bo did put in more effort at the beginning of his career than Riley but they were basically the same after 2012 in offers with Bo having more success in landing the radius player.

 

[StPaulHusker]

Really???

From last year (mostly Riley's offers) to this year, we have seen a 31% increase in offers within the 500 mile radius.  This is with most of a coaching staff that doesn't have long relationships yet in those HSs.  In fact, this staff has offered more within that radius than any year on that list except one.

You're right.  in total offers there is more to the radius.  I was speaking more in the terms of percentage of total offers.

 

[BigRedBuster]

You're right.  in total offers there is more to the radius.  I was speaking more in the terms of percentage of total offers.

Percent doesn't mean much because that fluctuates heavily by the total number of offers.

Within that 500 mile radius, there is a fairly steady number of students graduating in any year.  If, for whatever reason, the number of overall offers go up like they have this year, that doesn't mean you can easily (just because you want to focus more on that area) make a corresponding number of offers within that area.

The number of actual offers in that area means way more.  You're trying to make a bold statement that the staff isn't doing good enough in the radius while using a part of the statistics that can be affected by more than if they are serious about recruiting kids from that area.

 

[desertshox]

can you break down which offers in 2018 and 2019 came from riley and which came from frost? both those years and most likely 2020 have offers from both coaches, so you cant really tell what the trend is unless you differentiate the offers. conversely frost has honored many of riley's offers.

 

[StPaulHusker]

Percent doesn't mean much because that fluctuates heavily by the total number of offers.

Within that 500 mile radius, there is a fairly steady number of students graduating in any year.  If, for whatever reason, the number of overall offers go up like they have this year, that doesn't mean you can easily (just because you want to focus more on that area) make a corresponding number of offers within that area.

The number of actual offers in that area means way more.  You're trying to make a bold statement that the staff isn't doing good enough in the radius while using a part of the statistics that can be affected by more than if they are serious about recruiting kids from that area.

I didn't make any bold statement.  Someone else said that Bo and Frost put more effort into recruiting the radius than Riley.  I showed that, in relation to their TOTAL recruiting effort and offers, they were all about the same percentage wise.

I don't care if they offer only radius players or none at all.  As long as it leads to competing for conference championships and CFP berths, that's all that matters to me.

 

[StPaulHusker]

can you break down which offers in 2018 and 2019 came from riley and which came from frost? both those years and most likely 2020 have offers from both coaches, so you cant really tell what the trend is unless you differentiate the offers. conversely frost has honored many of riley's offers.

I probably could.  But I included 2008 (Callahan-Pelini transition year) and 2015 (Pelini-Riley transition year) without separating them so to be fair I left 2018-19 in the same light.

Also, I thought about going further back into Callahan and maybe Solich years but recruiting rankings are really strange from about 2007-08 and earlier.

 

[BigRedBuster]

I didn't make any bold statement.  Someone else said that Bo and Frost put more effort into recruiting the radius than Riley. 

Well then, my comments are pointed at them.

It's a ridiculous statement that this staff isn't offering kids anymore within the radius when in actuality, they have offered more kids in the radius than 10 out of the last 11 years spanning two coaching staffs.

 

[StPaulHusker]

It's a ridiculous statement that this staff isn't offering kids anymore within the radius when in actuality, they have offered more kids in the radius than 10 out of the last 11 years spanning two coaching staffs.

It wasn't a statement of more offers.  It was a statement of more effort in the area in general.

They have offered 11 more players within the radius in the 2019 class compared to Riley's 2017 class.  But they also offered almost 100 more players overall too.  So the amount of attention the radius is receiving in offers in relation to total offers is about the same as it has been for about 10 years.

 

[BigRedBuster]

They have offered 11 more players within the radius in the 2019 class compared to Riley's 2017 class.  But they also offered almost 100 more players overall too.  So the amount of attention the radius is receiving in offers in relation to total offers is about the same as it has been for about 10 years.

Well....now we are diving into an area where no-one on this board has a clue about.

We are looking at a few statistics and now making statements about where they are focusing their efforts?  Not all offers require or demand the same amount of time, visits, phone calls, text messages...etc.

How many of the 378 offers are from relationships built up while at UFC that they just rolled over into offers for Nebraska?
How many of those offers did they throw out hoping to get interest and quickly realized there wasn't any and now have no contact with the recruit?

What percentage of their time are they spending on each recruit for each state?

I'll guarantee you they are spending way more time on Henrich in Omaha than some low 3 star recruit from Florida that isn't show much interest.

The numbers show that they are very willing to offer kids within the 500 mile radius.  Again, more offers than 10 out of the last 11 years.  I don't see that as some accident.  Now, we might get out a couple years and things even out to a point where we can make the statements you and others are trying to make.  But, I don't see the evidence of it right now.

 

[StPaulHusker]

Well....now we are diving into an area where no-one on this board has a clue about.

We are looking at a few statistics and now making statements about where they are focusing their efforts?  Not all offers require or demand the same amount of time, visits, phone calls, text messages...etc.

How many of the 378 offers are from relationships built up while at UFC that they just rolled over into offers for Nebraska?
How many of those offers did they throw out hoping to get interest and quickly realized there wasn't any and now have no contact with the recruit?

What percentage of their time are they spending on each recruit for each state?

I'll guarantee you they are spending way more time on Henrich in Omaha than some low 3 star recruit from Florida that isn't show much interest.

The numbers show that they are very willing to offer kids within the 500 mile radius.  Again, more offers than 10 out of the last 11 years.  I don't see that as some accident.  Now, we might get out a couple years and things even out to a point where we can make the statements you and others are trying to make.  But, I don't see the evidence of it right now.

Did you miss the part where I said take it for what it's worth?

 

[BigRedBuster]

Did you miss the part where I said take it for what it's worth?

OK...I will.

 

[Mierin]

I think we're missing a key thing here.

Putting more effort into the 500 mile radius is not just about # of offers. I believe we've heard from a couple 500 mile radius players now that said Frost and his staff paid them a lot more attention than the previous staff. We also have Bryson Williams(sp) as a good example of a failure by the previous staff. I believe Frost would have always picked Williams first due to his effort in school and his location. I'm of the opinion if you have a tie or close tie, you go with the one who is doing well enough in school to get an offer from Harvard. There was no chance he was an academic risk. I'm also of the belief if you have 2 really good DTs in Nebraska you just take them both, and you especially don't NOT take the Nebraska kid (let alone a Nebraska kid who has a family tie with Nebraska sports) with a Wisconsin offer.

Then there are the stories we've heard of how much more time they are spending in Nebraska high schools and IWCC. I believe the IWCC no Nebraska head coach (or maybe it was any Nebraska coach) had visited IWCC in years and that included both Riley and Pelini. Then there is what we've heard about the te spent at the Kansas junior college. It seems obvious they are putting more effort into the 500 mile radius.

 

[Mavric]

I think we're missing a key thing here.

Putting more effort into the 500 mile radius is not just about # of offers. I believe we've heard from a couple 500 mile radius players now that said Frost and his staff paid them a lot more attention than the previous staff. We also have Bryson Williams(sp) as a good example of a failure by the previous staff. I believe Frost would have always picked Williams first due to his effort in school and his location. I'm of the opinion if you have a tie or close tie, you go with the one who is doing well enough in school to get an offer from Harvard. There was no chance he was an academic risk. I'm also of the belief if you have 2 really good DTs in Nebraska you just take them both, and you especially don't NOT take the Nebraska kid (let alone a Nebraska kid who has a family tie with Nebraska sports) with a Wisconsin offer.

Then there are the stories we've heard of how much more time they are spending in Nebraska high schools and IWCC. I believe the IWCC no Nebraska head coach (or maybe it was any Nebraska coach) had visited IWCC in years and that included both Riley and Pelini. Then there is what we've heard about the te spent at the Kansas junior college. It seems obvious they are putting more effort into the 500 mile radius.

Referring to the numbers I posted above, Riley got 19 commits from the radius in 3.5 classes.

Frost has 7 in about eight months (leaving Nelson & Snodgrass in the 19 of Riley's).  It won't be surprising if there are 10+ in this first full class.

 

[4skers89]

I think we're missing a key thing here.

Putting more effort into the 500 mile radius is not just about # of offers. I believe we've heard from a couple 500 mile radius players now that said Frost and his staff paid them a lot more attention than the previous staff. We also have Bryson Williams(sp) as a good example of a failure by the previous staff. I believe Frost would have always picked Williams first due to his effort in school and his location. I'm of the opinion if you have a tie or close tie, you go with the one who is doing well enough in school to get an offer from Harvard. There was no chance he was an academic risk. I'm also of the belief if you have 2 really good DTs in Nebraska you just take them both, and you especially don't NOT take the Nebraska kid (let alone a Nebraska kid who has a family tie with Nebraska sports) with a Wisconsin offer.

Off topic but I have always thought that recruits with poor academics probably have poor work ethic.  Doing average in high school just isn't that difficult.  Also, if they are struggling in high school the time required for academics while in college could take away from time needed for development as an athlete.