Trump’s Shocking Approval with African Americans

The polls after the final debate were pretty clear: Hillary Clinton was going to win this election. Trump had been fading since the pu&&y grabbing.

The "probability" of erasing an 8-11% lead in the last two weeks was very low. We ask our news organs to speculate and the speculation was that Hillary Clinton was going to coast, possibly even flipping a few Red States she didn't need. 

The other camp that thought Donald Trump was going to lose was Donald Trump's camp. They always did. So he'd been pounding the "rigged election" drum almost from the beginning. 

When Comey announced the reopening of Hillary Clinton's email case 11 days before the election, Hillary's numbers dropped as much as 8 points overnight, and suddenly the race was a virtual dead heat. We depend on people to read those polls, and few would go on record to suggest it was a trend that would sweep Trump into the White House.

 
Ric Flair said:
Yawn. Everyone was drawing conclusions based on the polls, which is after all what they are for. Find me any mainstream news source that predicted Trump would win. Hell...find me one that predicted it would even be very close.
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Do I need to teach you how to use Google?

 
Mike Mcdee said:
Now wait a minute. Are you saying if someone is instructing their opponent in a debate to do their on "Googling", that they are essentially conceding or surrendering their side of the argument? 
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Not at all. You're apparently unfamiliar with context. I've asked...repeatedly now...for one mainstream news source who predicted Trump would win or suggested that a Trump win was likely. No one can find me one because there simply isn't one...which is precisely my point.

Asking someone to research and become informed about something for himself is one thing. That can be accomplished with a simple Google search.  Asking someone to provide even a sliver of evidence of something...when it doesn't exist...is another thing entirely. Google away...you won't find anything...because I'm right.

DevoHusker said:
(it's a trap)....
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Not a particularly good one...

 
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knapplc said:
I could have provided a link to a Fox News article saying the same as these things all say (that Trump could win), but the request was for a "news source" and that disqualifies Fox.
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tenor.gif


 
knapplc said:
Washington Post

Fortune

CNBC

538

Business Insider

Politico

The Independent
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I just read the first page of the first link. It was a Wa-Po op-ed piece that included this paragraph:

By most accounts, the election is all but over. Poll after poll shows Hillary Clinton winning. The Upshot, a New York Times polling site, puts Clinton’s chance of winning at 92 percent, leaving Trump at just 8 percent. At this stage, according to the site, the chance of Clinton losing is “about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 31-yard field goal.”

That's what we're talking about here. It's not a judgement call or partisan talking point. It's a simple fact that Donald Trump defied the polls, pundits and conventional wisdom for most of his campaign. Arguing otherwise serves no point that I can see. 

 
Yep. Most every poll seemed to solidly give Clinton the advantage over Trump (hence the high percentage of probability that she'd win), yet in each of those publications (and there are dozens more, I was just too lazy to keep copying links) they stated that Trump was not out of it, and could win (and many gave paths to a possible Trump victory).

Clearly there were many articles and news pieces stating that Clinton had it in the bag, even after Comey's ridiculous statement about her emails. 

 
knapplc said:
Washington Post

Fortune

CNBC

538

Business Insider

Politico

The Independent
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By most accounts, the election is all but over. Poll after poll shows Hillary Clinton winning. The Upshot, a New York Times polling site, puts Clinton’s chance of winning at 92 percent, leaving Trump at just 8 percent. At this stage, according to the site, the chance of Clinton losing is “about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 31-yard field goal.” 
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Washington Post

As of October 1st of this election cycle, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was up by 2.6 points over Republican nominee Donald Trump. Since then, Clinton has widened her lead by 5.5 points, according to RealClearPolitics. Based on the history of U.S. Presidential elections going back to 1980, Clinton’s lead looks formidable. In fact, according to FiveThirtyEight, the probability of Trump winning is now down to just 12.7%.

Despite the low probability of a Trump win as of today, there are a few scenarios in which the GOP nominee may have better odds at winning the election than consensus currently believes
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Fortune

Look, you're clearly missing the point. I asked for you to "show me any mainstream news source who as late in the 2016 cycle as 5 p.m. on election night predicted a Trump victory."

You responded with some columns about how there is some tiny mathematical chance that if a series of things happened that defied the polling and all conventional wisdom, Trump might have a prayer. 

Then you declared victory.

:lol:

 
Ric Flair said:
Not at all. You're apparently unfamiliar with context. I've asked...repeatedly now...for one mainstream news source who predicted Trump would win or suggested that a Trump win was likely. No one can find me one because there simply isn't one...which is precisely my point.

Asking someone to research and become informed about something for himself is one thing. That can be accomplished with a simple Google search.  Asking someone to provide even a sliver of evidence of something...when it doesn't exist...is another thing entirely. Google away...you won't find anything...because I'm right.

Not a particularly good one...
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What information should we use when trying to make a prediction on election results? That's the heart of this. Most if not all media sources use polling. Most if not all polling showed Trump would not win. You are asking to be shown where a media source went against their own polling information and interjected their own opinion. I recognize that journalists do have biases, but reputable ones attempt to keep said biases to a minimum. I think what you are asking for doesn't exist, which is why you are asking for it.

 
Ric Flair said:
 I asked for you to "show me any mainstream news source who as late in the 2016 cycle as 5 p.m. on election night predicted a Trump victory."
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Not in the post I quoted.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

And to be clear, those weren't the only links in the search I did. They were the first few. There were tons and tons of reputable news sources explaining that a Clinton victory wasn't a lock.  I think the focus is on the probability of a Clinton win (which was high), and those were based on opinion polls.

Nobody can predict the future.  Lots of people gave hints, including an ABC poll (in the Independent link) that said Trump was likely to win.

 
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