Frost - The greatest hire since Nick Saban

[Dansker]

we play in a tough league.......going to be quite a few 9-3 years along the way, i would think......lots of parity, will be tough to play for Big 10 championships every year....being back in the hunt will be enough for a while,...patience.

I will add to your post -- With 9 conference games, 9-3 overall (like you said) won't be good enough to win the West. If we look at past results in our divisional history (Legends/West) and who has won it prior to CCG:

2011 Michigan State 10-2 (7-1)

2012 Nebraska 10-2  (7-1)

2013 Michigan State 11-1 (8-0)

2014 Wisconsin 10-2 (7-1)

2015 Iowa 12-0 (8-0)

2016 Wisconsin 10-2 (7-2)

2017 Wisconsin 12-0 (9-0)

All SF and Nebraska has to do is manage to go either 9-0, 8-1, or 7-2 in conference play. 7-2 is realistic even for this year. In this scenario, we would need to go 1-3 in the big 3 between Michigan, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. We have to play all 3 on the road, mind you. Lose all 3 and forget about it. Go 1-3 and every other game moving forward will be more important than the last one.

Like Bill Moos said during his introductory news conference, Nebraska used to be the hunted, and we have to get back to that. 9-3 are decent years but obviously, based on past results it's not enough to be the West champion. If we had a more challenging OOC schedule, then perhaps we could still finish 9-3 (7-2/8-1) and play for a CCG.

 

[junior4949]

It probably sets up somewhat well for Frost to compete for championships in the future.  Urban is likely done.  Saban is going to retire at some point.  Dabo will still be around though.  Those 3 are really the only ones at the top of the game at this point.  After that, there are a lot of good, unproven younger HC's that will be getting after it.

I don't see a 20-25 average recruiting class getting it done though.  He's not going to be able to out-develop those 3 coaches with regards to the players.  That doesn't mean he can't develop players.  He likely can.  But Frost isn't going to be able to take a team in the low 20's on average and develop them better than Saban can with a #1 average class.  

This is a tough league.  I'm not sure about the bolded part.  Yes, Saban is going to retire at some point.  Does Dabo go home once it happens?  I have no idea whether Urban is done or not.  I do know Ohio State will throw out however many millions it takes to get a top notch coach.  However, there are other programs in this league.  James Franklin more than likely isn't going anywhere.  He's only three years older than Frost.  At Vandy, he had them ranked in the top 25 at season's end two of his three years there.  At Penn State, he's already won the B1G and has a couple top 10 finishes.  As long as Dantonio is at Michigan State, they will be solid.  As long as Alvarez is at Wisconsin, they will be solid.  I realize everyone likes to bag on Harbaugh, but the fact of the matter is he's been successful everywhere he's been.  Last weekend, it was mentioned more than once by analysts that the B1G is the toughest football conference.  Who knows how long Brohm stays at Purdue? 

I'd say our road to a championship regardless of whether we're talking conference or national is tougher today than it has ever been.  Thus far, there has never been a two loss team included in the playoff.  Getting through the B1G with fewer than two losses has proven to be very challenging. 

 

[StPaulHusker]

This is a tough league.  I'm not sure about the bolded part.  Yes, Saban is going to retire at some point.  Does Dabo go home once it happens?  I have no idea whether Urban is done or not.  I do know Ohio State will throw out however many millions it takes to get a top notch coach.  However, there are other programs in this league.  James Franklin more than likely isn't going anywhere.  He's only three years older than Frost.  At Vandy, he had them ranked in the top 25 at season's end two of his three years there.  At Penn State, he's already won the B1G and has a couple top 10 finishes.  As long as Dantonio is at Michigan State, they will be solid.  As long as Alvarez is at Wisconsin, they will be solid.  I realize everyone likes to bag on Harbaugh, but the fact of the matter is he's been successful everywhere he's been.  Last weekend, it was mentioned more than once by analysts that the B1G is the toughest football conference.  Who knows how long Brohm stays at Purdue? 

I'd say our road to a championship regardless of whether we're talking conference or national is tougher today than it has ever been.  Thus far, there has never been a two loss team included in the playoff.  Getting through the B1G with fewer than two losses has proven to be very challenging. 

My point is that after Urb, Saban, and Dabo all other coaches are basically the same.  None have really separated themselves as the next consistently great HC.

SO if there is a window for Frost to do it, it will be once Urb is gone and Saban retires.

 

[everybody knows my name]

Frost sure looks like a home run from up here in Minnesota.  I just don't know how he can be the greatest hire when he's destined to lose to the Gophers every year until forever.

 

[4skers89]

Frost sure looks like a home run from up here in Minnesota.  I just don't know how he can be the greatest hire when he's destined to lose to the Gophers every year until forever.

So you're going with the least likely scenario?  The gopher is a cute little critter, unfortunately I see a lot of roadkill in your future 

 

[Huskers93-97]

My point is that after Urb, Saban, and Dabo all other coaches are basically the same.  None have really separated themselves as the next consistently great HC.

SO if there is a window for Frost to do it, it will be once Urb is gone and Saban retires.

Or Frost's recruiting gains traction after we see some on field results and he passes Urban and goes toe to toe with Saban. 

In my mind Frost and Kirby Smart could be the future head coaches that lead the country in prestige.

 

[StPaulHusker]

Or Frost's recruiting gains traction after we see some on field results and he passes Urban and goes toe to toe with Saban. 

In my mind Frost and Kirby Smart could be the future head coaches that lead the country in prestige.

Kirby Smart could be very good.  I’m always skeptical of new coaches in the SEC.  They seem to catch fire early in their career and then flame out.

 

[Huskers93-97]

Kirby Smart could be very good.  I’m always skeptical of new coaches in the SEC.  They seem to catch fire early in their career and then flame out.

I hear ya. One thing I find funny is the media narrative like 10 years ago saying a few teams can’t dominate college football anymore. Too much parody, scholarship limits, on and on. 10 years later. Dabo, urban and saban have proved nothing has changed. Great coaches will yield results. 

Thats why I ignore the narrative you can’t recruit to Nebraska, you can’t win a title at Nebraska anymore, too much has changed. It’s all crap - get the right coach and anything can happen. I think we got the right guy finally. It’s not just hope everything is different this time- it’s not just local buzz- Btn guys- national guys. Everyone is saying the same things after visiting the staff. 

The offseason weight claims of working harder than ever actually hold water this time. You can actually physically see their bodies are changed. 

At this point more evidence suggests you should drink the kool aide vs being skeptical because of past experiences. Everything so far lines up with all claims to date.  On field performance will be the ultimate judge but so far everything lines up 

 

[lo country]

Wisconsin hasn’t won any National Championships with their plug and play system.  

And the magic number is 15.  No team that has made the national championship game since 2000 has had a 4 year average recruiting class of lower than 15 going into the year they went. And it was only twice

Washington and I think Michigan St had a 4 year average of somewhere in the 20’s when they made the CFP.  

So 4 teams out of what?  30 or more?  

He’s going to have to aim higher than Wisconsin.

Looking at their record since the firing of Frank and their's, I'd take their's.  My point being that they have far and above over achieved with their recruiting ratings.  I can see Frost getting better classes and doing the same.  He has a track record of developing guys.

As far as recruiting, I agree with you.  We need talent for sure, but I believe Frost can do more with less.  I also realize if we start winning and stop getting embarrassed on national tv, recruiting will be helped tremendously. Winning gets winners.  

Here's a good article about Blue Chip (4*-5*) ratio. (Bama with 80% Blue Chip) Looks pretty spot on IMHO. The teams in the top 10 pass the eyeball test, although not all perform that way.  For all of Riley's awesomeness with getting all the great 4*/5* to NU, since he took over there was a 11% decrease from 2014-2017 (30%-19%) in blue chip kids at NU.  

 https://www.sbnation.com/a/cfb-preview-2017/blue-chip-ratio

 

[Huskers93-97]

Looking at their record since the firing of Frank and their's, I'd take their's.  My point being that they have far and above over achieved with their recruiting ratings.  I can see Frost getting better classes and doing the same.  He has a track record of developing guys.

As far as recruiting, I agree with you.  We need talent for sure, but I believe Frost can do more with less.  I also realize if we start winning and stop getting embarrassed on national tv, recruiting will be helped tremendously. Winning gets winners.  

Here's a good article about Blue Chip (4*-5*) ratio. (Bama with 80% Blue Chip) Looks pretty spot on IMHO. The teams in the top 10 pass the eyeball test, although not all perform that way.  For all of Riley's awesomeness with getting all the great 4*/5* to NU, since he took over there was a 11% decrease from 2014-2017 (30%-19%) in blue chip kids at NU.  

 https://www.sbnation.com/a/cfb-preview-2017/blue-chip-ratio

Good points. If Wisconsin can perform at a top 10 level- almost top 5 some years with a 40th ranked recruiting class. Why can’t nebraska perform at a top 5 or national title level with top 15-25 classes? 

I do think with on field success we will annually be 10-20 on our classes with a few 5-10 classes sprinkled in. We start competing and winning conference titles and get in the playoffs or win it. We could recruit like Ohio state and bama 

 

[brophog]

Good points. If Wisconsin can perform at a top 10 level- almost top 5 some years with a 40th ranked recruiting class. Why can’t nebraska perform at a top 5 or national title level with top 15-25 classes? 

They haven't had to play anyone of note from the east most years in recent memory. They're not playing, much less defeating, schools that are recruiting at a top level. They are, by and large, defeating other teams with 40th ranked recruiting classes.

Look at 2016. Did you know Wisconsin beat (3) top ten teams that year? Two of them have fired their coach and the third would only won 3 games. That's Wisconsin football. 

 

[Making Chimichangas]

Wisconsin hasn’t won any National Championships with their plug and play system.  

And the magic number is 15.  No team that has made the national championship game since 2000 has had a 4 year average recruiting class of lower than 15 going into the year they went. And it was only twice

Washington and I think Michigan St had a 4 year average of somewhere in the 20’s when they made the CFP.  

So 4 teams out of what?  30 or more?  

He’s going to have to aim higher than Wisconsin.

This ^^^^ is pure crazy.  Wisconsin is a good/great QB away from being an elite, national championship team.  Their recruiting PROVES you do not need top 10 recruiting classes to play at an elite level consistently.  You need great coaching, player development, and player effort.

Nebraska has consistently out-recruited Wisconsin (according to the recruiting services) and yet they beat us like a red-headed step child every year.

 

[lo country]

They haven't had to play anyone of note from the east most years in recent memory. They're not playing, much less defeating, schools that are recruiting at a top level. They are, by and large, defeating other teams with 40th ranked recruiting classes.

Look at 2016. Did you know Wisconsin beat (3) top ten teams that year? Two of them have fired their coach and the third would only won 3 games. That's Wisconsin football. 

And NU........I can't cast Wisky in a poor light seeing as they have beaten us on the national stage more times than I care to admit.  Even Iowa owns NU since we chose to not fall into mediocrity.  .....

Time will tell if Frost is next "it" guy.  He has much more upside than down. Is there a down side?  McElwain, Herman are 2 who were the next new best guy......Fuentes has turned out alright.  Bottom line, I'd like Frost, NU guy or not.  Reality, besides the guys like Saban, Urban or Dabo, Frost is probably the only guy who can return us to prominence.  

 

[Dansker]

This ^^^^ is pure crazy.  Wisconsin is a good/great QB away from being an elite, national championship team.  Their recruiting PROVES you do not need top 10 recruiting classes to play at an elite level consistently.  You need great coaching, player development, and player effort.

Nebraska has consistently out-recruited Wisconsin (according to the recruiting services) and yet they beat us like a red-headed step child every year.

I completely agree with the bolded. Nebraska used to recruit 2 star or 3 star guys and develop them in Husker Power, they'd hit the field ready to go and played hard. Wisconsin's walk-on program is something they take seriously and in our case, it's not what it used to be. Wisconsin took our old formula and ran with it to the attune of 5 division titles since the inception of the CCG and 3 conference titles, the last one was 6 years ago so they're kind of in a slump...

Nebraska has averaged a 25th recruiting ranking since 2015. Frost should be able to develop that talent and exceed expectations while bringing in new players. He's a great coach from what we know, and trending upward. This all looks to be promising for Nebraska football, IMO.

A great coach can capitalize on this sort of situation. That's where you get consistency and sometimes magical seasons like MSU had, Wisconsin last year, Washington making the CFP. If Frost can consistently get a top 15 class and maybe a few top 10 classes, it won't be long where everyone in the West is chasing us.

 

[StPaulHusker]

This ^^^^ is pure crazy.  Wisconsin is a good/great QB away from being an elite, national championship team.  Their recruiting PROVES you do not need top 10 recruiting classes to play at an elite level consistently.  You need great coaching, player development, and player effort.

Nebraska has consistently out-recruited Wisconsin (according to the recruiting services) and yet they beat us like a red-headed step child every year.

Since Nebraska joined the B1G: Wisconsin vs teams that had a higher recruiting ranking:  Rankings per 247 Composite.

2011:  Wisconsin was ranked 44th:  Wisconsin went 4-3

2012:  Wisconsin was ranked 65th:  Wisconsin went 5-5

2013:  Wisconsin was ranked 40th:  Wisconsin went 1-4

2014:  Wisconsin was ranked 32nd:  Wisconsin went 1-2

2015:  Wisconsin was ranked 41st:  Wisconsin went 2-1

2016:  Wisconsin was ranked 35th:  Wisconsin went 3-3

2017:  Wisconsin was ranked 39th:  Wisconsin went 3-1

So in the 7 years since Nebraska joined the B1G, Wisconsin has gone 19-19 against teams with better recruiting classes than them.  That's not elite.  That's average.