z-score rankings comparison of NU and OSU + conf and nat'l rankings

[beorach]

The stats I track don't include those from games versus teams outside your conference, let alone your division, but Nebraska's place changes relative to what everyone else did all the same.  See below for the matchup with those who would follow the urban liar...

passing defense

completions per game: 9th percentile (NU) to 57th percentile (those who think dotting an "i" is noteworthy)

percentage:                   54 to 91

yards per attempt:         42 to 53

touchdowns per game: 50 to 50

rating:                            51 to 67

yards per game:            6 to 29

passing offense

completions per game: 78 to 100

percentage:                   81 to 97

yards per attempt:         61 to 77

touchdowns per game: 49 to 100

rating:                            62 to 91

yards per game:            74 to 99

rushing defense

yards per game:            29 to 71

touchdowns per game:  6 to 74

yards per carry:             19 to 47

rushing offense

yards per game:            74 to 25

touchdowns per game:  74 to 12

yards per carry:             89 to 26

scoring defense

touchdowns per game:  12 to 65

points per game:            8 to 69

scoring offense

touchdowns per game:  61 to 84

points per game:            57 to 84

total defense

yards per play:               21 to 42

yards per game:             8 to 53

plays per game:             13 to 69

rush yds per game:        29 to 71

pass yds per game:        6 to 29

total offense

yards per play:               86 to 77

yards per game:             89 to 98

plays per game:             59 to 98

rush yds per game:        74 to 25

pass yds per game:        74 to 99

turnover margin

fumbles gained per game:         12 to 64

interceptions gained per game: 45 to 45

turnovers gained per game:       20 to 55

fumbles lost per game:               36 to 87

interceptions lost per game:       55 to 55

turnovers lost per game:             44 to 81

turnover margin per game:          26 to 74

 

[Mierin]

Why don’t you include games outside the division?

 

[beorach]

Here are the B1G rankings for the same categories (just averaged all those figures above and then averaged the averages of the conference opponents faced by each team for the SOS ones)...

Pass O average percentile rankings














1


Ohio State


97.71




2


Purdue


74.39




3


Nebraska


68.27




4


Indiana


68.17




5


Michigan


53.88




6


Iowa


51.04




7


Minnesota


49.06




8


Northwestern


48.95




9


Penn State


41.57




10


Wisconsin


35.13




11


Michigan State


34.98




12


Maryland


22.58




13


Illinois


14.43




14


Rutgers


4.13







Pass D average percentile rankings














1


Michigan


98.79




2


Maryland


90.73




3


Iowa


67.09




4


Wisconsin


66.27




5


Northwestern


64.33




6


Ohio State


59.81




7


Penn State


58.30




8


Rutgers


48.85




9


Michigan State


35.08




10


Nebraska


31.22




11


Purdue


31.06




12


Illinois


17.04




13


Indiana


13.70




14


Minnesota


12.42







Rush O average percentile rankings














1


Maryland


94.26




2


Wisconsin


91.22




3


Penn State


85.57




4


Nebraska


79.71




5


Michigan


78.33




6


Illinois


78.16




7


Purdue


76.48




8


Minnesota


31.23




9


Indiana


22.62




10


Iowa


22.02




11


Ohio State


20.08




12


Northwestern


17.21




13


Rutgers


16.58




14


Michigan State


9.31







Rush D average percentile rankings














1


Michigan


89.48




2


Michigan State


87.49




3


Iowa


82.27




4


Purdue


68.99




5


Maryland


67.01




6


Ohio State


64.43




7


Indiana


61.45




8


Penn State


60.03




9


Northwestern


44.19




10


Wisconsin


33.23




11


Rutgers


19.53




12


Minnesota


19.07




13


Nebraska


16.01




14


Illinois


1.05







Scoring O average percentile rankings














1


Ohio State


84.28




2


Purdue


81.65




3


Michigan


79.15




4


Penn State


76.03




5


Maryland


75.19




6


Wisconsin


63.42




7


Iowa


59.48




8


Nebraska


58.95




9


Northwestern


44.11




10


Minnesota


36.98




11


Indiana


29.77




12


Illinois


29.47




13


Michigan State


19.71




14


Rutgers


1.85







Scoring D average percentile rankings














1


Michigan


93.17




2


Michigan State


80.88




3


Northwestern


79.54




4


Iowa


77.30




5


Purdue


75.90




6


Maryland


75.14




7


Ohio State


67.07




8


Wisconsin


61.96




9


Penn State


61.57




10


Rutgers


28.04




11


Indiana


16.48




12


Nebraska


9.71




13


Minnesota


9.13




14


Illinois


0.93







Total O average percentile rankings














1


Ohio State


91.07




2


Purdue


83.12




3


Nebraska


77.83




4


Penn State


66.96




5


Michigan


65.20




6


Wisconsin


58.10




7


Indiana


56.39




8


Iowa


48.83




9


Minnesota


42.94




10


Illinois


39.22




11


Maryland


35.34




12


Northwestern


34.30




13


Michigan State


30.31




14


Rutgers


4.20







Total D average percentile rankings














1


Michigan


99.24




2


Iowa


87.06




3


Maryland


72.24




4


Michigan State


62.71




5


Northwestern


58.57




6


Ohio State


53.14




7


Wisconsin


51.42




8


Rutgers


41.90




9


Indiana


34.38




10


Penn State


30.09




11


Purdue


27.17




12


Minnesota


21.29




13


Nebraska


13.83




14


Illinois


4.78







Turnover Margin average percentile rankings














1


Maryland


82.83




2


Wisconsin


71.19




3


Ohio State


67.26




4


Michigan


60.74




5


Michigan State


60.15




6


Northwestern


60.03




7


Indiana


54.71




8


Iowa


54.65




9


Penn State


53.77




10


Illinois


43.65




11


Purdue


34.12




12


Nebraska


32.37




13


Rutgers


17.40




14


Minnesota


10.07







Strength of Schedule*














1


Michigan State


58.08




2


Minnesota


55.90




3


Nebraska


55.25




4


Illinois


53.70




5


Michigan


53.49




6


Wisconsin


51.90




7


Northwestern


51.74




8


Iowa


50.47




9


Rutgers


50.17




10


Penn State


48.04




11


Indiana


46.74




12


Purdue


46.52




13


Maryland


42.47




14


Ohio State


41.31







* - I've just taken the average of the average category percentile averages for all the opponents faced to come up with this.  On one hand, it would seem that Ohio State is penalized by this simplistic method because dominating opponents tends to wreck their stats.  On the other hand, though, their two toughest opponents so far were Penn State and Purdue.

 

[beorach]

Why don’t you include games outside the division?

I probably should have chosen my words better.  I'm talking about FBS versus FCS (what used to be Division I versus Division II?).  The stats I'm playing with are those garnered from games played by teams in the same conferences.  If we stripped away half the teams in FBS (such that we'd be left with just the P5 ones), I wouldn't feel the need.

 

[Mierin]

I probably should have chosen my words better.  I'm talking about FBS versus FCS (what used to be Division I versus Division II?).  The stats I'm playing with are those garnered from games played by teams in the same conferences.  If we stripped away half the teams in FBS (such that we'd be left with just the P5 ones), I wouldn't feel the need.

Gotcha

 

[beorach]

Here are the rankings of performances against conference teams to date (per average z-scores across the nine categories listed above)

Rk        TEAM          Avg of Avg Category %-iles














1


Alabama


87.99




2


Clemson


87.14




3


Michigan


79.77




4


Fresno State


77.48




5


UCF


74.77




6


Utah State


74.54




7


Troy


73.35




8


Ohio


72.95




9


Cincinnati


72.69




10


Buffalo


72.62




11


Georgia


72.02




12


UAB


71.77




13


Oklahoma


70.53




14


Miami (Ohio)


70.34




15


Florida International


69.77




16


Utah


69.74




17


Georgia Southern


68.49




18


Maryland


68.37




19


Ohio State


67.21




20


West Virginia


66.70




21


Houston


66.57




22


Temple


65.20




23


LSU


64.87




24


Appalachian State


63.41




25


North Texas


63.20




26


Boston College


63.04




27


Boise State


62.71




28


Marshall


61.69




29


Purdue


61.43




30


Southern Mississippi


61.28




31


Iowa


61.08




32


Northern Illinois


60.42




33


Western Michigan


59.99




34


Iowa State


59.85




35


Kentucky


59.78




36


Penn State


59.32




37


Texas


59.19




38


Memphis


59.14




39


Wisconsin


59.10




40


Colorado


58.76




41


Texas Tech


58.49




42


Miami (Florida)


57.77




43


Washington


57.68




44


Virginia


57.61




45


Florida


56.97




46


Middle Tennessee


55.69




47


Syracuse


55.59




48


Tulane


55.35




49


Washington State


53.72




50


Eastern Michigan


53.69




51


Arizona


53.27




52


California


53.25




53


Georgia Tech


52.42




54


Louisiana-Lafayette


52.31




55


San Diego State


52.22




56


Louisiana Tech


51.60




57


Charlotte


51.56




58


Virginia Tech


51.44




59


Pittsburgh


50.97




60


Auburn


50.75




61


Mississippi State


50.61




62


Arizona State


50.37




63


Nevada


50.30




64


Northwestern


50.14




65


Stanford


49.48




66


South Florida


49.44




67


Georgia State


49.31




68


Toledo


48.82




69


San Jose State


48.48




70


Michigan State


46.74




71


Arkansas State


46.32




72


Florida Atlantic


46.16




73


Air Force


45.90




74


Texas A&M


45.78




75


North Carolina State


45.48




76


Colorado State


45.35




77


Navy


44.54




78


UTSA


43.55




79


Louisiana-Monroe


43.51




80


Oregon


43.37




81


Nebraska


43.10




82


Texas State


42.96




83


South Carolina


42.18




84


Oklahoma State


41.98




85


Wyoming


41.69




86


North Carolina


41.42




87


SMU


40.91




88


Coastal Carolina


40.72




89


UCLA


40.43




90


USC


39.77




91


Indiana


39.74




92


Duke


39.59




93


Central Michigan


39.24




94


Hawai'i


38.85




95


UTEP


38.79




96


TCU


38.34




97


Ball State


38.24




98


Tulsa


36.91




99


Western Kentucky


34.75




100


Kansas State


34.54




101


Florida State


34.52




102


New Mexico


34.51




103


Kent State


34.27




104


Baylor


33.81




105


Bowling Green


33.64




106


Missouri


33.43




107


Old Dominion


32.48




108


Vanderbilt


32.31




109


Akron


32.00




110


Wake Forest


30.62




111


South Alabama


28.11




112


UNLV


27.53




113


Kansas


27.05




114


Arkansas


26.33




115


East Carolina


26.25




116


Mississippi


26.09




117


Oregon State


25.96




118


Minnesota


25.80




119


Tennessee


25.69




120


Illinois


25.41




121


Louisville


25.39




122


Rutgers


20.28




123


Rice


19.18




124


Connecticut


17.78

 

[beorach]

Below are the defensive performance rankings across the four defensive categories listed above...

Rk         TEAM                            Avg. of Avg. Percentile Ratings














1


Michigan


95.17




2


UAB


92.15




3


Clemson


92.13




4


Fresno State


90.46




5


Kentucky


86.83




6


San Diego State


86.22




7


Mississippi State


85.56




8


Cincinnati


85.35




9


Alabama


83.46




10


Miami (Florida)


82.14




11


Temple


81.73




12


Southern Mississippi


80.95




13


Northern Illinois


80.73




14


Washington


80.19




15


LSU


79.95




16


Appalachian State


78.74




17


Iowa


78.43




18


Virginia


78.10




19


Buffalo


77.95




20


Georgia Southern


77.49




21


Florida International


77.38




22


Maryland


76.28




23


Utah


74.81




24


Georgia


73.37




25


California


73.15




26


Auburn


73.00




27


Louisiana Tech


72.27




28


Charlotte


71.36




29


Florida


69.47




30


North Texas


69.43




31


UTSA


67.70




32


Utah State


67.57




33


Marshall


67.42




34


Ohio


67.13




35


Michigan State


66.54




36


Tulane


66.07




37


West Virginia


65.76




38


Texas A&M


64.64




39


Miami (Ohio)


62.93




40


Wyoming


62.65




41


UTEP


62.60




42


Colorado


62.11




43


Nevada


61.97




44


Northwestern


61.66




45


Ohio State


61.12




46


Central Michigan


60.70




47


Iowa State


59.16




48


Troy


58.98




49


Boston College


58.19




50


Akron


58.10




51


Middle Tennessee


57.80




52


Boise State


56.84




53


Texas


56.70




54


TCU


56.33




55


Texas Tech


55.81




56


UCF


55.75




57


Virginia Tech


55.23




58


Wisconsin


53.22




59


South Carolina


52.91




60


Penn State


52.50




61


Arizona


52.42




62


Texas State


52.18




63


Florida State


51.89




64


Purdue


50.78




65


Memphis


49.74




66


Eastern Michigan


49.58




67


Oklahoma


49.43




68


USC


47.24




69


Tulsa


46.28




70


Florida Atlantic


45.92




71


Stanford


45.85




72


Arizona State


45.63




73


Western Michigan


44.70




74


Syracuse


42.58




75


Washington State


41.73




76


Missouri


41.47




77


Georgia Tech


40.82




78


New Mexico


40.34




79


SMU


40.15




80


Houston


40.13




81


Louisiana-Monroe


39.72




82


San Jose State


38.44




83


Duke


38.35




84


North Carolina State


38.00




85


UCLA


37.41




86


South Florida


37.06




87


Western Kentucky


36.35




88


North Carolina


35.92




89


Colorado State


35.16




90


Oregon


35.08




91


Rutgers


34.58




92


Toledo


33.85




93


East Carolina


33.75




94


Navy


33.50




95


Air Force


33.14




96


Ball State


32.53




97


Indiana


31.50




98


Rice


31.48




99


Louisiana-Lafayette


31.45




100


South Alabama


30.15




101


Kansas State


29.84




102


Pittsburgh


27.35




103


Vanderbilt


27.03




104


Arkansas State


26.88




105


Hawai'i


26.53




106


Georgia State


25.01




107


Kent State


24.53




108


Tennessee


24.19




109


Oklahoma State


23.34




110


Coastal Carolina


22.44




111


Baylor


21.06




112


Kansas


19.66




113


Louisville


18.85




114


Nebraska


17.69




115


Arkansas


17.28




116


Bowling Green


15.86




117


Minnesota


15.48




118


Old Dominion


15.47




119


Mississippi


11.12




120


Oregon State


6.88




121


UNLV


6.34




122


Illinois


5.95




123


Wake Forest


4.76




124


Connecticut


0.95

 

[beorach]

Below are the rankings of offensive performances against conference teams only (across the four categories listed above)...

Rk           TEAM                        Avg. of Avg. Percentile Ratings














1


Oklahoma


96.89




2


Alabama


92.70




3


Houston


92.00




4


Clemson


91.62




5


UCF


88.65




6


Troy


88.54




7


Ohio


86.58




8


Utah State


84.76




9


Purdue


78.91




10


Western Michigan


76.45




11


Louisiana-Lafayette


75.51




12


Georgia State


73.93




13


Miami (Ohio)


73.84




14


Ohio State


73.29




15


Cincinnati


72.74




16


Georgia


72.53




17


Pittsburgh


71.35




18


Nebraska


71.19




19


Memphis


71.16




20


Washington State


69.26




21


Michigan


69.14




22


Boise State


68.49




23


Texas Tech


68.40




24


West Virginia


67.77




25


Penn State


67.53




26


South Florida


67.09




27


Arkansas State


66.45




28


Buffalo


66.39




29


Utah


65.32




30


Boston College


65.06




31


Syracuse


64.48




32


Toledo


63.53




33


Fresno State


62.65




34


Wisconsin


61.97




35


Coastal Carolina


61.93




36


Oklahoma State


61.38




37


Colorado State


60.81




38


Florida International


60.76




39


North Texas


60.67




40


Georgia Tech


59.41




41


North Carolina State


58.38




42


Arizona State


58.07




43


Air Force


57.90




44


Iowa State


57.69




45


Maryland


56.84




46


Appalachian State


56.46




47


Bowling Green


55.44




48


Texas


55.43




49


Old Dominion


54.12




50


UAB


53.78




51


Marshall


53.73




52


Florida Atlantic


53.35




53


Hawai'i


52.55




54


Eastern Michigan


52.37




55


Southern Mississippi


52.35




56


Louisiana-Monroe


52.32




57


Georgia Southern


52.25




58


Colorado


52.17




59


San Jose State


51.59




60


Wake Forest


51.04




61


North Carolina


50.58




62


Temple


50.24




63


Arizona


50.17




64


Oregon


49.32




65


Navy


49.15




66


Middle Tennessee


48.47




67


Baylor


47.91




68


Stanford


47.65




69


LSU


46.24




70


Tulane


46.14




71


UNLV


46.09




72


Ball State


45.40




73


Iowa


45.34




74


Florida


45.12




75


Duke


44.63




76


Indiana


44.24




77


California


43.62




78


Oregon State


41.66




79


Nevada


41.46




80


Illinois


40.32




81


Virginia Tech


40.06




82


Minnesota


40.05




83


Northern Illinois


38.79




84


Kent State


38.11




85


Washington


37.97




86


USC


37.26




87


Arkansas


37.18




88


South Carolina


37.09




89


Virginia


36.16




90


Northwestern


36.14




91


Mississippi


34.82




92


UCLA


34.52




93


Connecticut


34.35




94


Louisville


34.30




95


Auburn


34.17




96


Kansas State


31.64




97


Texas A&M


31.16




98


Kentucky


30.59




99


SMU


30.31




100


New Mexico


29.66




101


Western Kentucky


29.23




102


Miami (Florida)


28.80




103


TCU


28.50




104


Charlotte


28.30




105


Tulsa


28.15




106


Texas State


28.06




107


Missouri


27.80




108


South Alabama


27.41




109


Louisiana Tech


27.22




110


Vanderbilt


26.52




111


Tennessee


24.35




112


Michigan State


23.58




113


East Carolina


23.48




114


Kansas


23.41




115


San Diego State


21.30




116


Florida State


20.03




117


Central Michigan


18.93




118


UTEP


17.16




119


Wyoming


15.98




120


Mississippi State


15.63




121


Akron


11.37




122


UTSA


7.16




123


Rice


6.72




124


Rutgers


6.69







p.s. - Getting back to the point of why I do this the way I do, I just think it's silly to pretend as if all these FBS teams are playing the same level of competition.  How many years are we going to act surprised that Conference A seems much stronger than Conference B in the bowl season when there's so little meaningful inter-conference play during the regular season?

 

[Undone]

So to summarize, if Martinez hadn't gotten hurt against Colorado and had played 100% healthy against Troy, we'd probably be 2nd in the conference for Total Offense.

But on the flip side, we have the second worst defense in the conference.  Pretty frustrating to have such a terrible showing really by all three units on defense.

Also of note to me is that it seems surprising to see Iowa's passing offense and rushing offense numbers. They're better passing the ball than running, and that really surprises me.

 

[beorach]

So to summarize, if Martinez hadn't gotten hurt against Colorado and had played 100% healthy against Troy, we'd probably be 2nd in the conference for Total Offense.

But on the flip side, we have the second worst defense in the conference.  Pretty frustrating to have such a terrible showing really by all three units on defense.

Also of note to me is that it seems surprising to see Iowa's passing offense and rushing offense numbers. They're better passing the ball than running, and that really surprises me.

I'm only using stats from games teams play against their conference mates (so we're talking about 5 games played by NU only).  I try to divide figures by the number of games to keep as much relative meaning as I can.  Only the passing defense category has even average numbers for the Blackshirts (aside from the yards allowed per game).

I was surprised to see those Iowa figures, too, but still thought they were a safe bet (taking the points) against Penn State last weekend.  The Wisconsin game was the real stunner, though.  Even with Hornibrook (sp?) out, I thought the running game would wear the Cats down...