Toilet Bowl Cleaner - 50% off on Black Friday

I'll update later.

As it stands right now I believe there are 12 spots left for 25 1 win to go teams + Nebraska. I've counted at least 4 head to heads for these teams, so there are actually 8 spots for 21 teams + Nebraska. So 14 out of 21 teams need to go 0-2. 4 of those teams are guaranteed to have at least 1 loss in the head to heads.

There are also 5 4-6 teams that are not already included as 1 win to go teams due to APR. So we need them not to go 2-0.

 
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Michiganball said:
A 5 win Nebraska would be a lot more interesting nationally then watching North-East Dakota State Christian play with 6 wins. Not only is it a known brand, but the whole story with Frost and winning 5 of the 6 remaining games would be far more compelling.
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There is no way North-East Dakota State Christian reaches 6 wins this year. Remove them from the list.

 
Not bothering with the 2 wins needed teams this time.

As of Nov. 10 there are 90 teams that need between 0 and 1 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR.

If we consider 5 win teams ahead of us in APR as bowl eligible:
66 of the 90 are bowl eligible now.
24 are 1 win away.

We need 13 of the 24 teams to go 0-2 and none of the 5 teams who need 2 wins to go 2-0 (or some combination). Unfortunately I counted 4 head to heads within this group, which means 4 of the 24 are guaranteed to not go 0-2.

In case anyone's curious, these are the teams ahead of us in APR that still matter:

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A smart actuary could calculate the probability of us making a bowl game by using ESPN's matchup predictor or something like that for the remaining games for both us and the other contenders.  I know part of the calculation would be that Nebraska needs to beat MSU (30% chance) and Iowa (15% chance) and if I remember my basic probability our chances of that are 4.5%.  Although, if we beat MSU then our chance to beat Iowa would probably go up.

 
4skers89 said:
A smart actuary could calculate the probability of us making a bowl game by using ESPN's matchup predictor or something like that for the remaining games for both us and the other contenders.  I know part of the calculation would be that Nebraska needs to beat MSU (30% chance) and Iowa (15% chance) and if I remember my basic probability our chances of that are 4.5%.  Although, if we beat MSU then our chance to beat Iowa would probably go up.
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The matchup predictor is based mostly off of record.  Using the eyeball test, Nebraska is trending up and Iowa is trending down. I would put that game as at least 50-50 because Iowa's offense is pitiful.  MSU has a pretty bad offense also, and with that game in Lincoln I would put that at a minimum of 50-50 also.  So the chance of 5-7 is much better than 5%.

However, since you are talking bowls, the chance of that is very low, as even if the team finishes 5-7, there are several schools with better APR's than us this year I believe. 

 
If we finish 5-7 and there are bowl slots left I know APR is supposedly the rule but.....

the NCAA is dirty AF and all about $.  Because we travel so well, and bc/ it would be better TV I could see us getting an invite regardless of 'the rules.'

 
runningblind said:
However, since you are talking bowls, the chance of that is very low, as even if the team finishes 5-7, there are several schools with better APR's than us this year I believe. 
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So an actuary could calculate the probability of the schools with better APRs getting to 5 wins combined with our odds of winning out combined with other teams reaching 6 wins and also consider the number of bowl spots available to calculate an overall chance of us going bowling.

50-50 against both MSU and Iowa?  That doesn't seem like you.  Are you off the Koolaid?  :lol:

 
4skers89 said:
So an actuary could calculate the probability of the schools with better APRs getting to 5 wins combined with our odds of winning out combined with other teams reaching 6 wins and also consider the number of bowl spots available to calculate an overall chance of us going bowling.

50-50 against both MSU and Iowa?  That doesn't seem like you.  Are you off the Koolaid?  :lol:
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Haha! Internally I really think these are 2 W's, and if we win the turnover battle I see a couple 2-3 td wins. A koolaid volcano would erupt for the offseason then.  I was just trying out pragmatism with the 50/50 talk...I didn't like it.

Moiraine said:
You could scroll up to see the list of those teams 2 posts before yours :p
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Haha, thanks for the assist! I will have to try scrolling before posting.

 
macroboy said:
If we finish 5-7 and there are bowl slots left I know APR is supposedly the rule but.....

the NCAA is dirty AF and all about $.  Because we travel so well, and bc/ it would be better TV I could see us getting an invite regardless of 'the rules.'
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Why is everyone so convinced that even if there is a perfect storm, the NCAA somehow is going to break the rules for us? 

D-e-l-u-s-i-o-n-a-l

 
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