Toilet Bowl Cleaner - 50% off on Black Friday

Moiraine said:
Scoff all you want. (Edit: What I meant is scoff to yourself). I find this stuff fun. I will update this every week until Nebraska is eliminated from bowl eligibility.

There are 39 bowls (including the quarterfinals) for 78 teams.

As of Oct. 20 there are  81 teams that need between 0 and 2 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR.

28 of the 81 are bowl eligible now.

23 are 1 win away.

As of Oct. 25 there are 83 teams that need between 0 and 2 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR.

29 of the 83 are bowl eligible now.
23 are 1 win away.

As of Oct. 27 there are 92 teams that need between 0 and 2 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR.

37 of the 92 are bowl eligible now.

25 are 1 win away.

If we consider 5 win teams ahead of us in APR as bowl eligible:
42 of the 92 are bowl eligible now.
24 are 1 win away.

As of Nov. 3 there are 97 teams that need between 0 and 2 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR.

48 of the 97 are bowl eligible now.

29 are 1 win away.

If we consider 5 win teams ahead of us in APR as bowl eligible:
52 of the 97 are bowl eligible now.
29 are 1 win away.

As of Nov. 10 there are 90 teams that need between 0 and 1 more wins to be bowl eligible or get to 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR.

If we consider 5 win teams ahead of us in APR as bowl eligible:
66 of the 90 are bowl eligible now.
24 are 1 win away.
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This didn't age well.

 
cheekygeek said:
There is a scenario in which Nebraska still gets a bowl invite with a win over Iowa (so technically we are still alive) but the odds are incredibly against it happening.

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First, 71 teams are currently bowl eligible.

The following 4  teams currently have 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR. So we must root for ALL OF THEM to win their final games and all become bowl eligible (bringing the total teams bowl eligible to 75).

Vanderbilt must beat Tennesee

and

Kansas State must beat Iowa State

and
Minnesota must beat Wisconsin

and
Maryland must beat Penn State.

In addition, Air Force and Illinois are ahead of us in APR and currently at 4 games, so we would need:

Air Force to LOSE to Colorado State

AND

Illinois to LOSE to Northwestern

Already looking dim? You ain't seen nothing yet.

THEN, (If all of the above happens) there are just 3 bowl spots remaining, Nebraska would need no more than two of the following 17 teams to win their final games:




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Your logic on the 5-win teams ahead of us in APR needing to win is... illogical. They are already ahead of us. Whether they get to 6 wins or not has no effect on us. Also, there are at least 2 head to head match ups in your final list. I thought there were 3 which is what made it 100% impossible.

 
Moiraine said:
Your logic on the 5-win teams ahead of us in APR needing to win is... illogical. They are already ahead of us. Whether they get to 6 wins or not has no effect on us. Also, there are at least 2 head to head match ups in your final list. I thought there were 3 which is what made it 100% impossible.
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My logic on the 5 win teams ahead of us needing to win is not illogical. We need to be the top APR team with 5 wins when the smoke clears. I have outlined the ONLY scenario in which a single 5 win team is needed to fill the last remaining bowl game (which doesn't happen every year) and it requires all of them to get to 6 wins (leaving us the top APR team with 5 wins). There LIKELY aren't going to be ANY 5 win teams in bowls this year, but with my scenario there would possibly be one (but SOOOOOOO improbable).

The other head to head matchup you may have been thinking of is Vandy vs Tennessee (winner is bowl eligible) but if Tennessee wins then VANDY (not Nebraska) would the the top APR 5 win team getting the final spot (assuming all other Nebraska criteria were met... which ain't gonna happen either). We gotta have Vandy win that matchup, becoming bowl eligible and knocking Tennessee out of it (below our APR with 5 wins).

 
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cheekygeek said:
My logic on the 5 win teams ahead of us needing to win is not illogical. We need to be the top APR team with 5 wins when the smoke clears. Only with them winning I have outlined the ONLY scenario in which a single 5 win team is needed to fill the last remaining bowl game (which doesn't happen every year). There LIKELY aren't going to be ANY 5 win teams in bowls this year, but with my scenario there would possibly be one (but SOOOOOOO improbable).
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You’re not getting it. We need a bowl spot to be available. Period. The 5 win teams ahead of us in APR are already eligible. It does not matter now if they get a 6th. It won’t change the # of spots available. A team ranked 30th in APR with 5 wins can go to a bowl game even if there are 10 teams ahead of them with 5 wins if the spots are available. You don’t have to be the #1 5 win team to go. Multiple 5 win teams can go if the spots aren’t filled. Win or lose, those teams are ahead of us in bowl eligibility. 
 
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cheekygeek said:
There is a scenario in which Nebraska still gets a bowl invite with a win over Iowa (so technically we are still alive) but the odds are incredibly against it happening.

giphy.gif


First, 71 teams are currently bowl eligible.

The following 4  teams currently have 5 wins and are ahead of us in APR. So we must root for ALL OF THEM to win their final games and all become bowl eligible (bringing the total teams bowl eligible to 75).

Vanderbilt must beat Tennesee

and

Kansas State must beat Iowa State

and
Minnesota must beat Wisconsin

and
Maryland must beat Penn State.

In addition, Air Force and Illinois are ahead of us in APR and currently at 4 games, so we would need:

Air Force to LOSE to Colorado State

AND

Illinois to LOSE to Northwestern

Already looking dim? You ain't seen nothing yet.
Indiana plays Purdue (winner becomes bowl eligible) and Baylor plays Texas Tech (winner becomes bowl eligible) leaving ONE spot open, so Nebraska would need ALL OF THE following 13 teams to LOSE their final games:








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Moiraine said:
You’re not getting it. We need a bowl spot to be available. Period. The 5 win teams ahead of us in APR are already eligible. It does not matter now if they get a 6th. It won’t change the # of spots available. A team ranked 30th in APR with 5 wins can go to a bowl game even if there are 10 teams ahead of them with 5 wins if the spots are available. You don’t have to be the #1 5 win team to go. Multiple 5 win teams can go if the spots aren’t filled. Win or lose, those teams are ahead of us in bowl eligibility. 
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I can't explain it any better than I have and if you can't see it I can't help you.

This part of your argument is wrong: "The 5 win teams ahead of us in APR are already eligible."

It is irrelevant, except for the fact that Nebraska is not yet MATHEMATICALLY eliminated,  until just ONE of the things I said has to happen doesn't happen.

 
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