I'm not saying they're impossible. Highly improbably I guess I'm probably saying. He wrote his post as if he expects those things to happen. I think they're certainly possible, but all the things you listed only apply to possibility or to potential. They don't apply to an actual equation or evidence that any of that will happen. Literally 99% of schools in America do not operate at a level of being top 4 in their conference, winning their conference every now and occasionally getting to sweet 16/elite 8. Not only is that not the case for 99% of schools across the board (including us currently), but we're trying to do it in the toughest conference imaginable.
I think a realistic baseline or median expectation is being Top 6 in the conference and making the dance about 2/3 of the time, winning at least one game half the times that we do make it which would be at least one win every three years.