The P&R Plague Thread (Covid-19)

DevoHusker said:
sorry...NYT. but that's just semantics. My point remains why not post the actual stats? and no, I am on a work computer with no Twitter, so I didn't. Please, if you could, give me the cliffnotes version. I see reference to the actual numbers in other posts...but no summary
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I already did, as did several others, in this thread. She's correct, Trump isn't.

 
Here's what I don't get.  Supposedly, China's daily new cases and deaths has really dropped off. So, the country is starting to lift social limitations.  

Well....if the daily new cases has dropped off because people aren't socializing, won't they now increase if people start socializing again?

Wouldn't they have had to literally test everyone in society to see who needs to remain under quarantine and who can leave?

 
BigRedBuster said:
Here's what I don't get.  Supposedly, China's daily new cases and deaths has really dropped off. So, the country is starting to lift social limitations.  

Well....if the daily new cases has dropped off because people aren't socializing, won't they now increase if people start socializing again?

Wouldn't they have had to literally test everyone in society to see who needs to remain under quarantine and who can leave?
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They are worried about a second wave in China but I think that can be avoided by maintaining rigorous testing, tracing and isolation. Some restrictions would probably need to remain such as limiting large crowds. Once you get a handle on things it's much easier to operate on a semi normal level while at the same time still being ahead of the virus

Edit: they will still get a second wave of infections. It will keep spreading but as long as the spread is slow and more of a trickle than a wave they can keep things running on a semi normal basis

 
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BigRedBuster said:
Here's what I don't get.  Supposedly, China's daily new cases and deaths has really dropped off. So, the country is starting to lift social limitations.  

Well....if the daily new cases has dropped off because people aren't socializing, won't they now increase if people start socializing again?

Wouldn't they have had to literally test everyone in society to see who needs to remain under quarantine and who can leave?
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That is the fear. And that's why medical experts are horrified that Trump wants everyone out and about by Easter.

Because there's no immunity, there's no cure, there's to this point no real treatment so... why wouldn't this pop back up again in staggering numbers?  It would be sheer dumb luck if it didn't, but if you're betting, you bet on Round Two of all of this.

And then we're talking more social distancing, more unnecessary infections, more deaths. You're almost certainly talking about no Fall sports, probably no baseball season at all (not even the late-start version MLB is toying with right now), nothing. 

There's no legit reason to restart the country right now.  And if we don't, tens of thousands of people will be killed for no reason.

 
Nebfanatic said:
They are worried about a second wave in China but I think that can be avoided by maintaining rigorous testing, tracing and isolation. Some restrictions would probably need to remain such as limiting large crowds. Once you get a handle on things it's much easier to operate on a semi normal level while at the same time still being ahead of the virus
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True. 

I would think they would need to really have a vigorous testing and isolation policy.  Other countries might need anyone traveling from china to be required to self quarantine and be tested before leaving the country.

 
DevoHusker said:
I was thinking the CNN reporter would have access to verifiable statistics...and should have included them if they proved her point that the orange man was lying 
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Same.  Yet neither of them provide stats.

So, it's just another example of them both being technically "right" if you look at the data a specific way or another and providing said data would allow someone to poke holes in the statement.

This is why Trump sucks.  This is why media sucks.  Take bias or personal politics out of it.  They all suck right now.

 
knapplc said:
That is the fear. And that's why medical experts are horrified that Trump wants everyone out and about by Easter.

Because there's no immunity, there's no cure, there's to this point no real treatment so... why wouldn't this pop back up again in staggering numbers?  It would be sheer dumb luck if it didn't, but if you're betting, you bet on Round Two of all of this.

And then we're talking more social distancing, more unnecessary infections, more deaths. You're almost certainly talking about no Fall sports, probably no baseball season at all (not even the late-start version MLB is toying with right now), nothing. 

There's no legit reason to restart the country right now.  And if we don't, tens of thousands of people will be killed for no reason.
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Well, this is going to sound cold hearted and it's not meant to be.  

One good thing about China being several months ahead of us on all of this is that we will be able to see how it works for them to ease restrictions before it happens here.

Trump is an idiot (I know, it's new news).  Even if he comes out and says..."all is fine".  I can't see governors and health officials falling in line with that.  It will be a very interesting situation to watch if it does happen.  It might be the moment that Fouci comes out and flat out tells Trump he's an idiot at the microphone.

 
BigRedBuster said:
True. 

I would think they would need to really have a vigorous testing and isolation policy.  Other countries might need anyone traveling from china to be required to self quarantine and be tested before leaving the country.
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The South Korea model is ideal to keep things in operation. They had to lock down some areas but mostly went about things by testing and tracing. Once you get new infections down to 0 you can phase into that model with relative success. 

 
@BigRedBuster, without getting into China's politics, public health, etc., I think every country will get to a point where we start lifting social restrictions. Yes, cases will go back up when you do so. But it is about no;t overwhelming the health care system. Banning restaurants and bars is only a mitigation technique to flatten the curve, not a permanent solution to starve the virus out to zero. Until we get a vaccine (12 months), I think it will be a balancing act of restrictions to make those ebbs and flows shallower. 

 
knapplc said:
I already did, as did several others, in this thread. She's correct, Trump isn't.
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i didn't see any summary, other than the 300,000 tests in each country...and all I am saying is she would have made a more valid point if the data had been included. but thanks for the information you provided. 

 
QMany said:
@BigRedBuster, without getting into China's politics, public health, etc., I think every country will get to a point where we start lifting social restrictions. Yes, cases will go back up when you do so. But it is about no;t overwhelming the health care system. Banning restaurants and bars is only a mitigation technique to flatten the curve, not a permanent solution to starve the virus out to zero. Until we get a vaccine (12 months), I think it will be a balancing act of restrictions to make those ebbs and flows shallower. 
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I understand all about flattening the curve and not overwhelming the healthcare system.  It will be interesting to see though if that happens again with a 2nd wave.  I would think there will be millions of people then out in public that aren't immune that will then be exposed and end up in the healthcare system.

 
DevoHusker said:
i didn't see any summary, other than the 300,000 tests in each country...and all I am saying is she would have made a more valid point if the data had been included. but thanks for the information you provided. 
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You get how twitter works with 280 characters per tweet, so people string tweets together.... right?

 
BigRedBuster said:
I understand all about flattening the curve and not overwhelming the healthcare system.  It will be interesting to see though if that happens again with a 2nd wave.  I would think there will be millions of people then out in public that aren't immune that will then be exposed and end up in the healthcare system.
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I totally understand the concern but there is some evidence that a lot more people have been infected than we know about and that, possibly for a majority of people, they never experience any symptoms and it doesn’t affect them. Of course the US is nowhere near the point we should be easing restrictions but it will be interesting to see how it goes in China.

 
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