Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

[JJ Husker]

This doesn't really mean that the number of COVID deaths is under counted. The excess deaths could easily be a combination of "normal" fatalities and COVID. With hospital systems strained people could be dying because they can no longer receive the same level of care. They could also be more reluctant to go to the hospital and get a diagnosis that could save them.

I sort of agree but, as an effective rate, I would still consider many of those attributable to Covid. It doesn’t much matter to the patient/sick person if they die because they can’t receive the same level of care or if they get quality care and still die. I’d be inclined to say the Covid killed them in either case.

 

[JJ Husker]

This is a little misleading and makes it sound more negative. 

They haven’t proven there is immunity. That’s a lot different than no evidence.

I also have issues with using the word relapse. There’s no indication in the article that these people are sick again; only that they have tested positive again. 

Both of these things are still good reason to not reopen things, which is the main point, I just don’t like the doom and gloom way the tweet is putting it. 

I agree, those are not the same thing. But what I’m really curious about, if it ends up being proven that there is no immunity, would that also mean that a vaccine could end up being ineffective?
 

I realize that is premature but that’s where my mind went when I saw this. Does anyone know if there is a correlation between being able to develope natural immunity and the ability to develope a working vaccine? Seems like it might be the same thing to me.

 

[ZRod]

I sort of agree but, as an effective rate, I would still consider many of those attributable to Covid. It doesn’t much matter to the patient/sick person if they die because they can’t receive the same level of care or if they get quality care and still die. I’d be inclined to say the Covid killed them in either case.

I can understand that line of thinking, but it needs to be separate if you're actually going to analyze the disease. There's COVID deaths and then deaths that may have been influenced by the pandemic. I don't think they should be treat the same, since they can tell separate stories about the impact the disease has.

 

[JJ Husker]

I can understand that line of thinking, but it needs to be separate if you're actually going to analyze the disease. There's COVID deaths and then deaths that may have been influenced by the pandemic. I don't think they should be treat the same, since they can tell separate stories about the impact the disease has.

Good point. It’s still important to know the actual cause of death.

 

[BigRedBuster]

This doesn't really mean that the number of COVID deaths is under counted. The excess deaths could easily be a combination of "normal" fatalities and COVID. With hospital systems strained people could be dying because they can no longer receive the same level of care. They could also be more reluctant to go to the hospital and get a diagnosis that could save them.

You are correct.  However, I find it highly doubtfull that all of the added deaths are for something other than COVID.  While we don't know exactly how many, I think it's safe to assume the number of COVID deaths are NOT being exaggerated and, infact, probably to some degree they are being under reported.  We just don't know how much.

 

[ZRod]

I agree, those are not the same thing. But what I’m really curious about, if it ends up being proven that there is no immunity, would that also mean that a vaccine could end up being ineffective?
 

I realize that is premature but that’s where my mind went when I saw this. Does anyone know if there is a correlation between being able to develope natural immunity and the ability to develope a working vaccine? Seems like it might be the same thing to me.

Just spit balling here; but I imagine it just makes it harder to find a vaccine because you're now looking for something similar to trigger the immune system response instead of the dead virus or RNA directly from COVID. I would imagine it would be like giving BCG as a vaccine for TB like they do in some places. BCG is a bovine strain of tuberculosis that can't reproduce in humans, but it can help the human body build an immunity to the common human strand of TB.

 

[Mierin]

I agree, those are not the same thing. But what I’m really curious about, if it ends up being proven that there is no immunity, would that also mean that a vaccine could end up being ineffective?
 

I realize that is premature but that’s where my mind went when I saw this. Does anyone know if there is a correlation between being able to develope natural immunity and the ability to develope a working vaccine? Seems like it might be the same thing to me.

I really wish you hadn't asked this, because I googled it and I don't like what I saw. 

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-vaccine-may-be-impossible-to-produce-scientists-covid-2020-4

Probably the most positive thing in the article:

 

Even if a fully effective vaccine proves impossible, Whitty believes that a partially effective vaccine would still be worth pursuing.

"You can have vaccines that are not capable of providing [high levels of] immunity, but they provide enough protection that people don't get severe disease. 

 

[ZRod]

You are correct.  However, I find it highly doubtfull that all of the added deaths are for something other than COVID.  While we don't know exactly how many, I think it's safe to assume the number of COVID deaths are NOT being exaggerated and, infact, probably to some degree they are being under reported.  We just don't know how much.

I think it's a little of A and a little of B as far as over/under reporting goes. We know it's happening both ways for sure, just not to what degree. 

An extra 12,000 deaths per country is eyebrow raising.

 

[BigRedBuster]

I can understand that line of thinking, but it needs to be separate if you're actually going to analyze the disease. There's COVID deaths and then deaths that may have been influenced by the pandemic. I don't think they should be treat the same, since they can tell separate stories about the impact the disease has.

I agree.  We need to fine tune the information as much as possible.  That might be possible to happen in the US and Europe.  I'm not confident we can do that in countries like China.

 

[Hilltop]

I think the information we really need to understand is the rate of asymptomatic cases.  Prisons aren't exactly controlled environments but the data here is interesting and encouraging.  https://www.news18.com/news/world/nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-covid-19-in-four-us-state-prisons-95-had-no-symptoms-2593079.html

Even if the general populations asymptomatic rate is only 1/3 of what was found in these prisons, the death rate would be well below 1% and actually pretty dang close to the flu.  I still support measures being taken and am a little confused by Nebraska opening up when we seem to be peaking in cases.  That makes little sense to me but as more data like this comes out I am feeling better about the situation as a whole.  

 

[funhusker]

I think the information we really need to understand is the rate of asymptomatic cases.  Prisons aren't exactly controlled environments but the data here is interesting and encouraging.  https://www.news18.com/news/world/nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-covid-19-in-four-us-state-prisons-95-had-no-symptoms-2593079.html

Even if the general populations asymptomatic rate is only 1/3 of what was found in these prisons, the death rate would be well below 1% and actually pretty dang close to the flu.  I still support measures being taken and am a little confused by Nebraska opening up when we seem to be peaking in cases.  That makes little sense to me but as more data like this comes out I am feeling better about the situation as a whole.  

Possibly.  But even assuming the same death rate, the volume of hospitalizations and death are not.  The CDC estimates around 35000 flu deaths from 2018-2019, granted with the help of a vaccine. But COVID is around 55,000 and counting with social distancing.  So assuming death rates are equal, COVID appears to spread much easier.  

Either way, the healthcare system would be overwhelmed and screwed.  And that's the point of all of this.

 

[Hilltop]

Possibly.  But even assuming the same death rate, the volume of hospitalizations and death are not.  The CDC estimates around 35000 flu deaths from 2018-2019, granted with the help of a vaccine. But COVID is around 55,000 and counting with social distancing.  So assuming death rates are equal, COVID appears to spread much easier.  

Either way, the healthcare system would be overwhelmed and screwed.  And that's the point of all of this.

I don't disagree but keep in mind the flu cases weren't being sought out to the degree that Covid is.  Imagine the flu showing up with nobody in the country having any antibodies against it and no vaccine in place.  I think it would look very similar to what we are seeing.  I think you would see a lot more people in the hospital from the flu if that were the case.  My point is this virus isn't quite what it was hyped to be in my opinion.  I'm guessing it will still be here 2 years from now but it will be regarded similarly with other nasty viruses that we ignore on a daily basis.     

 

[knapplc]

I don't disagree but keep in mind the flu cases weren't being sought out to the degree that Covid is.  Imagine the flu showing up with nobody in the country having any antibodies against it and no vaccine in place.  I think it would look very similar to what we are seeing.  I think you would see a lot more people in the hospital from the flu if that were the case.  My point is this virus isn't quite what it was hyped to be in my opinion.  I'm guessing it will still be here 2 years from now but it will be regarded similarly with other nasty viruses that we ignore on a daily basis.     

I'm not sure why there's a push to downplay this virus. Even if it's "just like the flu," when people didn't have any immunity to the Spanish Flu it killed millions in 1918. If this is just like that, and we weren't social distancing, there's no reason to believe millions wouldn't die today. 

 

[BigRedBuster]

I think the information we really need to understand is the rate of asymptomatic cases.  Prisons aren't exactly controlled environments but the data here is interesting and encouraging.  https://www.news18.com/news/world/nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-covid-19-in-four-us-state-prisons-95-had-no-symptoms-2593079.html

Even if the general populations asymptomatic rate is only 1/3 of what was found in these prisons, the death rate would be well below 1% and actually pretty dang close to the flu.  I still support measures being taken and am a little confused by Nebraska opening up when we seem to be peaking in cases.  That makes little sense to me but as more data like this comes out I am feeling better about the situation as a whole.  

Possibly.  But even assuming the same death rate, the volume of hospitalizations and death are not.  The CDC estimates around 35000 flu deaths from 2018-2019, granted with the help of a vaccine. But COVID is around 55,000 and counting with social distancing.  So assuming death rates are equal, COVID appears to spread much easier.  

Either way, the healthcare system would be overwhelmed and screwed.  And that's the point of all of this.

The difference is the infection rate.  COVID is being found to be much more contagious.  So, you have many more people infected with it. So, if the death rate is the same (which I believe it will be at least some what higher) COVID still ends up with a lot more deaths.

And, deaths aren't the only bad outcome.  There are lots of people who go through hell with it being hospitalized but don't die.

 

[funhusker]

The difference is the infection rate.  COVID is being found to be much more contagious.  So, you have many more people infected with it. So, if the death rate is the same (which I believe it will be at least some what higher) COVID still ends up with a lot more deaths.

And, deaths aren't the only bad outcome.  There are lots of people who go through hell with it being hospitalized but don't die.

Echo.................echo................echo...............echo..........echo...........echo

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