Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

I was going to ask this question in the football season thread but thought it more appropriate here.

Could someone explain how this herd immunity is supposed to work? I think I understand the theory as it relates to some other illnesses but I guess I don’t see it as directly related to Covid. Of the reports I’ve seen, people who have contracted Covid do not necessarily develope immunity to it. Numerous cases reported of people having contracted it more than once. And maybe I’m missing something but how do people who have not been exposed develope immunity or antibodies against it. Or is herd immunity to be understood as, when everyone finally gets exposed and it kills those who it’s going to kill, then we can say we’ve reached herd immunity?

Considering so many seem to think herd immunity is some magic bullet, and my understanding of it doesn’t jibe with that, I assume maybe I’m missing some key piece of understanding. If somebody could explain it or post a really good link, I’d sure appreciate it.

 
JJ Husker said:
I was going to ask this question in the football season thread but thought it more appropriate here.

Could someone explain how this herd immunity is supposed to work? I think I understand the theory as it relates to some other illnesses but I guess I don’t see it as directly related to Covid. Of the reports I’ve seen, people who have contracted Covid do not necessarily develope immunity to it. Numerous cases reported of people having contracted it more than once. And maybe I’m missing something but how do people who have not been exposed develope immunity or antibodies against it. Or is herd immunity to be understood as, when everyone finally gets exposed and it kills those who it’s going to kill, then we can say we’ve reached herd immunity?

Considering so many seem to think herd immunity is some magic bullet, and my understanding of it doesn’t jibe with that, I assume maybe I’m missing some key piece of understanding. If somebody could explain it or post a really good link, I’d sure appreciate it.
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The basic idea is that enough people in a population get a disease, those who can fight it off do and acquire antibodies, those who can't don't and die.

The problem with herd immunity as it relates to COVID-19 is that it kills roughly .03% or .05% of the people it infects (and yes, I know there are possibly huge caveats to that number). So anyone counting on getting past this through sheer herd immunity is essentially talking about the deaths of millions of people.

That's why herd immunity as a solution, alone, isn't going to work. You can't just write off X percentage of your population and chalk it up to life.

Anyone arguing for herd immunity in this situation isn't facing reality. That .03% isn't themselves, or their family, it's always someone else. But you don't get to choose who the disease takes in that fraction of death. And it's a s#!tty reality to have slapped against your face when you're standing graveside at a memorial.

 
knapplc said:
A grade-school teacher explains her take on in-person schooling vs. remote learning this Fall:

Source
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Not letting the students socially interact is one way to proceed. The current plan in my kids' district is to allow social interaction within each classroom but not between classes, which includes not rotating the teachers. The same plan for lunch, recess, PE, music, etc. So a student would be with the same 20-30 other kids and one teacher for the whole year. This is for K-8, I'm not sure what the plan is for HS students. And obviously this is subject to change.

 
knapplc said:
The basic idea is that enough people in a population get a disease, those who can fight it off do and acquire antibodies, those who can't don't and die.

The problem with herd immunity as it relates to COVID-19 is that it kills roughly .03% or .05% of the people it infects (and yes, I know there are possibly huge caveats to that number). So anyone counting on getting past this through sheer herd immunity is essentially talking about the deaths of millions of people.

That's why herd immunity as a solution, alone, isn't going to work. You can't just write off X percentage of your population and chalk it up to life.

Anyone arguing for herd immunity in this situation isn't facing reality. That .03% isn't themselves, or their family, it's always someone else. But you don't get to choose who the disease takes in that fraction of death. And it's a s#!tty reality to have slapped against your face when you're standing graveside at a memorial.
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That is basically my understanding of it as well. I guess I was hoping somebody hereabouts that has been advocating for herd immunity would try to explain how that is remotely an option. And for goodness sakes, why is it called herd "immunity". There is no immunity of the herd (us) involved. It's basically, let it run its course and whoever is left might be

okay....until they aren't. TBH, about the stupidest frikken thing I've ever heard of.

So, right now, we have achieved herd immunity for a bunch of things. Cancer, heart disease, whatever ...just let it do what it wants and then call it immunity because some survived it. Idiotic.

 
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knapplc said:
A grade-school teacher explains her take on in-person schooling vs. remote learning this Fall:

Source
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Also, I think this teacher's predictions of how it will go are wildly optimistic. Many kids are going to be at home without adult supervision because their parents are at work, so there's going to be a ton of them that don't do any school work but instead play video games, watch TV, etc. The idea that the students will record video of themselves and the teacher will review the videos and make suggestions is unrealistic. My son took anywhere from 2-6 hours each day on school work, so if he and the other 23 kids in his class all record video, the teacher is going to have 48-144 hours of video to review for 5 days each week. And that's not counting the kids that don't have the internet or a computer.

 
JJ Husker said:
That is basically my understanding of it as well. I guess I was hoping somebody hereabouts that has been advocating for herd immunity would try to explain how that is remotely an option. And for goodness sakes, why is it called herd "immunity". There is no immunity of the herd (us) involved. It's basically, let it run its course and whoever is left might be

okay....until they aren't. TBH, about the stupidest frikken thing I've ever heard of.

So, right now, we have achieved here immunity for a bunch of things. Cancer, heart disease, whatever ...just let it do what it wants and then call it immunity because some survived it. Idiotic.
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Herd immunity can also be achieved with vaccines if one is found.

 
Mavric said:
Considering we have the lowest unemployment and shrinking case load while New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts have 42% of all deaths, I'm not going to put a lot of stock in their ratings.
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Maybe read what they are basing their grades on. Nebraska probably got hammered on the grade because the response was to basically do nothing even though New York has twice as many cases per million. Plus New York had a quick downward trend while Nebraska was downward, but very erratic.

Our Methodology


To determine these results, we compared the following metrics:

  • Weekly Change in New Cases per Million Residents: the number of new COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 residents between June 12-18, 2020, compared to the prior week
  • Cases per 1 Million: the total number of COVID-19 cases per 1,000,000 residents
  • Deaths per 1 Million: the total number of COVID-19 deaths per 1,000,000 residents
  • Tests per 1 Million: the number of COVID-19 tests done per 1,000,000 residents
  • Reaction Time to Issue Stay-at-Home Orders: the number of days after the national emergency declaration it took to issue stay-at-home orders
  • Reaction Time to Close Schools: the number of days after the national emergency declaration it took to close schools
  • Reaction Time to Close Bars and Restaurants: the number of days after the national emergency declaration it took to close bars and restaurants
Click to expand...

 
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RedDenver said:
Herd immunity can also be achieved with vaccines if one is found.
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Well, yeah....if the herd receives the vaccine.

I just am really struggling to understand how herd immunity is a plan or course of action. I realize it’s something we may achieve at some point, naturally. But I don’t get how not wearing a mask, purposely letting/causing people to contract it, is anything desirable. It baffles me.

 
JJ Husker said:
Well, yeah....if the herd receives the vaccine.

I just am really struggling to understand how herd immunity is a plan or course of action. I realize it’s something we may achieve at some point, naturally. But I don’t get how not wearing a mask, purposely letting/causing people to contract it, is anything desirable. It baffles me.
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To supplement natural immunoreactions, vaccines are a great tool. As I'm sure you know (I get I'm preaching to the choir a bit here).

Where the disconnect comes in this sitch is when people just throw up their hands and say "Let herd immunity solve this." Because that, as the numbers show, involves literally millions of American deaths.

That's the lazy way out, the 'out' without a plan, just rolling the dice and hoping your particular personal chemistry doesn't interact with this virus in a way that kills or maims you, or those whom you love. It's a callous and, frankly, disgusting way to react to this pandemic.

So when people push back on the idea of herd immunity, that's where they're coming from. Certainly other opinions differ, but all things considered, I'd rather choose the option that doesn't rely on the deaths of literally millions of Americans to work - possibly your death, for example. Because while we differ and sometimes bicker, I'd really really really miss your input on this board.

 
RedDenver said:
Also, I think this teacher's predictions of how it will go are wildly optimistic. Many kids are going to be at home without adult supervision because their parents are at work, so there's going to be a ton of them that don't do any school work but instead play video games, watch TV, etc. The idea that the students will record video of themselves and the teacher will review the videos and make suggestions is unrealistic. My son took anywhere from 2-6 hours each day on school work, so if he and the other 23 kids in his class all record video, the teacher is going to have 48-144 hours of video to review for 5 days each week. And that's not counting the kids that don't have the internet or a computer.
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Dude, come on!

We watch/read/grade EVERYTHING...(Wink)

 
RedDenver said:
Also, I think this teacher's predictions of how it will go are wildly optimistic. Many kids are going to be at home without adult supervision because their parents are at work, so there's going to be a ton of them that don't do any school work but instead play video games, watch TV, etc. The idea that the students will record video of themselves and the teacher will review the videos and make suggestions is unrealistic. My son took anywhere from 2-6 hours each day on school work, so if he and the other 23 kids in his class all record video, the teacher is going to have 48-144 hours of video to review for 5 days each week. And that's not counting the kids that don't have the internet or a computer.
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That opinion does obviate the whole post. I wish I had thought of that before sharing this.

 
knapplc said:
To supplement natural immunoreactions, vaccines are a great tool. As I'm sure you know (I get I'm preaching to the choir a bit here).

Where the disconnect comes in this sitch is when people just throw up their hands and say "Let herd immunity solve this." Because that, as the numbers show, involves literally millions of American deaths.

That's the lazy way out, the 'out' without a plan, just rolling the dice and hoping your particular personal chemistry doesn't interact with this virus in a way that kills or maims you, or those whom you love. It's a callous and, frankly, disgusting way to react to this pandemic.

So when people push back on the idea of herd immunity, that's where they're coming from. Certainly other opinions differ, but all things considered, I'd rather choose the option that doesn't rely on the deaths of literally millions of Americans to work - possibly your death, for example. Because while we differ and sometimes bicker, I'd really really really miss your input on this board.
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I’ve been pushing back hard on this idea of herd immunity. So hard that I began to think I might not be understanding something about it. I still see people throw it up as some possible solution so I thought maybe they knew something about it that I was missing. That does not appear to be the case.

I just heard it stated again, moments ago on TV news, that people who have been infected do NOT develope immunity and they may be reinfected again within a few months. So, absolute best case is that herd immunity is no more than a mathematical based tipping point where the rate of infections/hospitalizations/deaths should start getting better. That’s it, that’s the extent of the good news about Covid herd immunity. Some impersonal numbers might begin to swing in the right direction. And even that doesn’t seem to be likely with what is known now. It has nothing to do with any actual person’s immunity or protection from contracting it. Seems like a very strange thing for people to be holding up as some sort of holy grail.

 
JJ Husker said:
Seems like a very strange thing for people to be holding up as some sort of holy grail.
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There's a specific ideology that keeps pushing this as a solution, and of course that crops up here as that ideology's adherents repeat it. 

 
RedDenver said:
Also, I think this teacher's predictions of how it will go are wildly optimistic. Many kids are going to be at home without adult supervision because their parents are at work, so there's going to be a ton of them that don't do any school work but instead play video games, watch TV, etc. The idea that the students will record video of themselves and the teacher will review the videos and make suggestions is unrealistic. My son took anywhere from 2-6 hours each day on school work, so if he and the other 23 kids in his class all record video, the teacher is going to have 48-144 hours of video to review for 5 days each week. And that's not counting the kids that don't have the internet or a computer.
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I would agree.  I also think she's being a bit overly dramatic.  I get what she's saying but there is absolutely no way most schools, if any, would succeed in running a first grade classroom like that.

 
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