hskrfan4life
Heisman Trophy Winner
I think we can win every game.
2021 Schedule Analysis and Breakdown- Initial Thoughts
- Thread starter seaofred92
- Start date
skers83
Starter
BIG ERN
All-American
Ohio St & Oklahoma have shown to be the only teams not beatable, though IMO both will be slightly less good than they were in 2020. All other games are toss ups outside of SE LA & Buffalo (though a sneaky good team). 9 games you have to come out and coach/play smart football.
I think our experienced defense will help a ton this year and getting the three main transfers in January helps as well. Illinois is the most critical game in Frost's tenure. Must win game where we can build off and get this thing going forward.
I think our experienced defense will help a ton this year and getting the three main transfers in January helps as well. Illinois is the most critical game in Frost's tenure. Must win game where we can build off and get this thing going forward.
GSG
Assistant Coach
RedSavage
All-Conference
Husker in WI
All-Conference
For me, I'd break it down like this:
at Illinois - W - 80% confidence. They lost their defensive difference makers and WRs on offense, they are not good. But new staff, first game of the year - who knows.
Buffalo - W -80% confidence. They are probably better than we think, but there's a big talent differential.
at Ok - L - 95% confidence. They are going to be really, really good. If our offense turns a corner in a hurry I actually like our D better, but it's probably not happening.
at Mich State - W - 85% confidence. They had some moments last year, but still no offense and the defense has trended down as well.
NW - W - 60% confidence. They are always tough and losing would not really surprise me, but they have no offensive skill players and few experienced defenders.
Michigan - L - 50% confidence. Really got no idea here - they struggled last year but are one of the B1G teams objectively more talented.
at Minnesota - W - 70% confidence. Ibrahim is a stud, but we saw the real Morgan plus new receivers have a lot to prove. The D is not good, we left a lot of yards on the field.
Purdue - W - 80% confidence. The defense will be Brohm's downfall, but their offense is also not as scary as it should be with the receivers they have.
Ohio State - L - 90% confidence. New QB, defense took a step back, but they're still ridiculously talented. Maybe their QBs aren't ready early in the year and an experienced D could take advantage, not at this point in the year.
SE La - W - 99% confidence. Not a good team.
at Wisconsin - L - 70% confidence. There's a chance because their offense was worse than ours down the stretch, but I expect some growth and their defense is elite.
Iowa - W - 60% confidence. They actually know how to win, but the offense is bad and we've really prevented ourselves from winning the past couple. This team really wants to beat Iowa.
Obviously the confidence numbers are very subjective, but I've got 8-4. Could very easily be 5-7/6-6 with some low confidence picks (Iowa/NW/Minnesota), can see an argument for 10-2 but that would involve a ton of things falling our way. I'd say that's the absolute ceiling, no real hope that it happens. I think 7-5 is more realistic, there's a low but real chance we beat one of Michigan/Wisconsin, and I'd say a high chance we actually lose at least one I that have as a W.
at Illinois - W - 80% confidence. They lost their defensive difference makers and WRs on offense, they are not good. But new staff, first game of the year - who knows.
Buffalo - W -80% confidence. They are probably better than we think, but there's a big talent differential.
at Ok - L - 95% confidence. They are going to be really, really good. If our offense turns a corner in a hurry I actually like our D better, but it's probably not happening.
at Mich State - W - 85% confidence. They had some moments last year, but still no offense and the defense has trended down as well.
NW - W - 60% confidence. They are always tough and losing would not really surprise me, but they have no offensive skill players and few experienced defenders.
Michigan - L - 50% confidence. Really got no idea here - they struggled last year but are one of the B1G teams objectively more talented.
at Minnesota - W - 70% confidence. Ibrahim is a stud, but we saw the real Morgan plus new receivers have a lot to prove. The D is not good, we left a lot of yards on the field.
Purdue - W - 80% confidence. The defense will be Brohm's downfall, but their offense is also not as scary as it should be with the receivers they have.
Ohio State - L - 90% confidence. New QB, defense took a step back, but they're still ridiculously talented. Maybe their QBs aren't ready early in the year and an experienced D could take advantage, not at this point in the year.
SE La - W - 99% confidence. Not a good team.
at Wisconsin - L - 70% confidence. There's a chance because their offense was worse than ours down the stretch, but I expect some growth and their defense is elite.
Iowa - W - 60% confidence. They actually know how to win, but the offense is bad and we've really prevented ourselves from winning the past couple. This team really wants to beat Iowa.
Obviously the confidence numbers are very subjective, but I've got 8-4. Could very easily be 5-7/6-6 with some low confidence picks (Iowa/NW/Minnesota), can see an argument for 10-2 but that would involve a ton of things falling our way. I'd say that's the absolute ceiling, no real hope that it happens. I think 7-5 is more realistic, there's a low but real chance we beat one of Michigan/Wisconsin, and I'd say a high chance we actually lose at least one I that have as a W.
Husker in WI
All-Conference
Lightfighter214 said:
Could be higher confidence for sure, I don't expect to win that. Probably more like 99% confidence in losing to OU and 98% against OSU, but I went with 5% increments for the most part. The things against OSU are no experienced QBs and a defense that ended up solid but not elite. Neither of which are things we look likely to be able to exploit. But I feel better about our chances than I did with Fields playing. 1 in 10 chance is too high though, you're right.
Ulty
All-Conference
Another thing I am nervous about is the way most you are thinking Buffalo is a sure win. I am not feeling any more confident about that game than I am Illinois, Purdue, or Minnesota. They were really good last year, and even though their stud RB is gone, they still seem to be more well-coached than Nebraska. Yes, we have way better talent on paper, but that hasn't stopped our colleagues in the B1G West in the past few years. We have lost to worse teams than Buffalo.
seaofred92
All-American
I respect the optimism here but I am amazed there are NU fans still seriously predicting this sort of stuff.
85% chance to win at Michigan State? NU has 1 road win over a team that finished above .500 since 2017- and thats a 1 point win @ Purdue who finished 6-6 and won their bowl game. 70% chance to win @ Minnesota? They've beaten NU 3 of the last 4 seasons. We haven't beaten Iowa since 2014 (Bo's last game) and we have a 60% chance to win that game? The last two years against Illinois we squeaked out a W in Champagne and got punched in the mouth in Lincoln and we have an 80% chance to win that? I think Buffalo is closer to a 65/70% chance of a W than 80% but not going to split hairs over that- just remember that in 2 of the last 4 seasons NU has lost home games to NIU and Troy.
I really hope 8-4 happens but that would be equal to the total wins in the last two seasons COMBINED. NU is no doubt more talented than just about half the teams on their schedule, but we've consistently struggled in close games for years now and repeatedly show poor in game coaching and adjustments in addition to being turnover prone and a team that accumulates a ton of penalties. Fixing ALL of that in one offseason to finish 8-4 seems to be a pretty aggressive endeavor.
seaofred92
All-American
A majority of people on this board just don't watch college football outside of NU- I'm convinced of it. Marks is a STUD running back that was behind Patterson last year and quite frankly Leipold is probably at minimum a more proven coach than Frost (I think better). Vantrease is a proven QB and while they lose a TON on the OL and at WR when you return a good starting QB and RB that gives you something to lean on. I laid the SP+ and other advanced metric ratings out on another thread earlier this week- Buffalo was consistently a top 50 rated team no matter the metric last year, finished in the AP Top 25, and finished 30th in SP+. They're projected to be the third "worst" team on our schedule this year but they're in the same range as Illinois, Northwestern, and Michigan State. This isn't New Mexico State or UMass coming to Lincoln. It's a legitimately good team that could beat NU if things break correctly for them.
Edit- go back and look at the threads from last year about playing Cincinnati (linking one of many) and how many people were just chalking that up as a W. They would've ROCKED NU last season.
People see G5 teams and think they all are a bunch of little sister of the poor morons that don't know how to play football (which in fairness is how ESPN and other college football personalities often portray them and is so incorrect and total BS but that's for another thread). Reality is there are more and more G5 teams (especially in the AAC) that not only can beat P5's but are just flat out better than them. Teams 30-90 in CFB are closer in talent and strength than most people realize.
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Husker in WI
All-Conference
Lightfighter214 said:
Definitely not a gimme, Leipold can coach. But their schedule last year was:
NIU (0-6) - 117th SP+ - Won by 19
Miami (OH) (2-1) - 106th SP+ - Won by 32
BGSU (0-5) - 126th SP+ - Won by 25
Kent State (3-1) - 94th SP+ - Won by 29
Akron (1-5) - 124th SP+ - Won by 49
Ball State (7-1) - 73rd SP+ - Lost by 10
Marshall (6-3) - 56th SP+ - Won by 7
Their 3 huge rushing games were against the 103rd, 115th, and 127th (dead last) rushing defenses by YPC allowed. We could definitely lose, but they beat up on bad teams. They are middle of the pack - 80% confidence is probably too high, but this is not Cincinnati either.
My guesses are super optimistic, I get that. Expecting us to take care of business against mediocre teams, which we have not shown that we can do. It would absolutely not surprise me if we lost to Illinois, or Buffalo, or got crushed by Iowa. So maybe if you're not an optimist take ~15-20% of my win confidences and add the same to my loss confidences. That would be a much less confident 6-6, with a coin flip against Minny being 5-7. Those are realistic IMO, I'm just hopeful we figure a few things out on O and the defense takes another step.
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seaofred92
All-American
This is good detail and its all healthy discussion. It is most definitely not UC- I think the Bearcats were obviously a legit top 10 team and closer to top 5 than many want to acknowledge.
I basically agreed with you in a different post and said its probably closer to 65-70% W for the Huskers. NU absolutely SHOULD win this game. I just am fearful because they return a good veteran semi-mobile QB, strong RB, and great HC. NU has started slow under Frost- 0-6 year 1 losing to Troy at home, weird South Alabama game with like 3 non-offensive touchdowns that we win by 14 and then a loss to Colorado, blowout loss to OSU followed up with a L to NW and a 1-4 start. Would guess the line is going to be around NU -14 or so, would you lay 14 with NU on any team with a pulse? We've lost to worse teams under Scott and our confidence is... fragile to be kind. But again if we do what we are supposed to do- we should win.