B1G Rushing Comparison

[Husker in WI]

Interestingly, last year 2AM ran the ball 13 times per game.  In 1995, QBs ran it 11.9 times per game.  Not much difference.

Now, I agree with you that I would prefer it to be in the 8-10 range because we are throwing the ball more and the RBs need to be much more involved in the run game.

The 13 per game is including Illinois where he only played a little and ran it twice - it's basically 15 per game if you take that out. And we were more run heavy with McCaffrey - it includes a handful of carries when McCaffrey wasn't the QB, but overall QBs were 46% of our carries, and averaged about 19 per game. 

We also ran the ball a lot more overall in 1995 - 57 times per game compared to 42. So in 1995 QBs ran it 20% of the time, which I'm fine with. 46% is way too much. 

 

[BigRedBuster]

The 13 per game is including Illinois where he only played a little and ran it twice - it's basically 15 per game if you take that out. And we were more run heavy with McCaffrey - it includes a handful of carries when McCaffrey wasn't the QB, but overall QBs were 46% of our carries, and averaged about 19 per game. 

We also ran the ball a lot more overall in 1995 - 57 times per game compared to 42. So in 1995 QBs ran it 20% of the time, which I'm fine with. 46% is way too much. 

The reason I only used 2AM is because way too many of Luke's carries were as not being a QB to make it a valid inclusion.  So...yes....15 per game if you want to take out the Illinois game.  

We both agree that we need the RB way more involved and carrying the ball.

 

[Undone]

I haven't read through every post in this thread and so maybe somebody else mentioned this. But if hypothetically some of our QB runs are scrambles on 3rd & longs that are broken plays where we then fall short of the first down marker, or even scrambles on any down that do result in a first down, sure...production is production and you're thankful for good YPC rushing stats.

But I feel like what I've seen the past two seasons specifically is that defenses are accurately not respecting our passing game (because we didn't have much in that category). And Frost just couldn't dial up a game plan to punish defenses for doing this.

Knowing this board I think somebody will swoop in to tell me I'm missing the point. But one other big thing heading into this season - irrespective of what the data in the OP shows in terms of run efficiency for last season - is that Dedrick Mills is now gone and Markese Stepp is in my opinion an unproven guy. We should have landed a feature back that is talented, knows the system, and is established heading into year four and we do not have that at all.

That's scary to me.

 

[Nebraska55fan]

Knowing this board I think somebody will swoop in to tell me I'm missing the point. But one other big thing heading into this season - irrespective of what the data in the OP shows in terms of run efficiency - is that Dedrick Mills is gone and Markese Stepp is in my opinion an unproven guy. We should have landed a feature back that is talented, knows the system, and is established heading into year four and we do not have that at all.

That's scary to me.

He hasnt been healthy for a full season since Jr High- look at his HS stats- often injured etc. He is a reach, not the answer. We have several in the stable that might be- Stepp isnt one of them. There is a reason he missed Spring, because that is who he is. 

 

[Undone]

He hasnt been healthy for a full season since Jr High- look at his HS stats- often injured etc. He is a reach, not the answer. We have several in the stable that might be- Stepp isnt one of them. There is a reason he missed Spring, because that is who he is. 

Yep.

And the guys in the stable could have a magical breakout season. But the original point is still valid: Year 4 should be a situation where you've got a blue chip RB ready to be the workhorse and move the chains, and I personally don't have the slightest bit of confidence that we actually have that guy.

 

[Nebraska55fan]

Yep.

And the guys in the stable could have a magical breakout season. But the original point is still valid: Year 4 should be a situation where you've got a blue chip RB ready to be the workhorse and move the chains, and I personally don't have the slightest bit of confidence that we actually have that guy.

 YEs, it is a mystery

I liked Ervin and Yant in the Spring game. Scott or Morrison could help too. NONE are a guaranteed known entity in BIG football. 

 

[Mavric]

I haven't read through every post in this thread and so maybe somebody else mentioned this. But if hypothetically some of our QB runs are scrambles on 3rd & longs that are broken plays where we then fall short of the first down marker, or even scrambles on any down that do result in a first down, sure...production is production and you're thankful for good YPC rushing stats.

But I feel like what I've seen the past two seasons specifically is that defenses are accurately not respecting our passing game (because we didn't have much in that category). And Frost just couldn't dial up a game plan to punish defenses for doing this.

Knowing this board I think somebody will swoop in to tell me I'm missing the point. But one other big thing heading into this season - irrespective of what the data in the OP shows in terms of run efficiency for last season - is that Dedrick Mills is now gone and Markese Stepp is in my opinion an unproven guy. We should have landed a feature back that is talented, knows the system, and is established heading into year four and we do not have that at all.

That's scary to me.

I don't think you're really wrong.  The question really isn't "has this happened or not" it's more "why is it happening".  From my point of view I think there is a lot of evidence that the man issue with the offense has been lack of legitimate receiving threats.  Frost's first year - even with only one main threat - the offense was pretty good.  But we've suffered through the effects of recruiting two contributing receivers over a five-year period - neither of which are still here - and the threat of the passing game has suffered because of it.

In my opinion, it's actually pretty impressive that we've been able to run the ball as effectively as we have given the lack of a downfield passing game and issues with having a consistent RB.

So it seems where most of the concern is will have to be answered by where the blame truly lies.  Is the problem that Martinez isn't that good and Frost has failed to develop and game plan?  Or is it because we simply haven't had the athletes at WR to be legitimate threats that the defense has to account for?

I don't know if we'll have the final answer this year but I think that we have enough possibilities at WR to get a much more informed understanding.

 

[Undone]

Great post, @Mavric. And also hi.    :cheers

Agreed big time on how in year one we had Stan and also JD was really coming on in that season as well. Those two guys got open. Martinez made plays like this one to JD:
 





In 2019, the problems in the passing game were threefold:

1. Very poor pass protection by our line.

2. Apparently learning after the season was over from Frost that Adrian had been playing injured.

3. Receivers not getting open very well (as you mentioned).

In 2020, pass protection was better, Adrian was (in my opinion anyway) improved over his 2019 play...and as you say, receivers just didn't separate and make a difference running routes and making plays.

It seemed like Lubick helped in improving the execution of the swing/short passes in 2020 - hoping to see more of that. Just need receivers and tight ends that can blaze the secondary out there, which then leads to defensive coordinators playing off the line of scrimmage more.

 

[Undone]

By the way...how f'ing awesome is the play in that second YouTube vid in the post above?? A lot of fans mocked Martinez being a dark horse Heisman candidate in the 2019 preseason talk after the offensive showing we wound up having in 2019...but plays like that were totally legit.

I really like Martinez as our QB heading into this season. I believe his ceiling is still way higher than most fans believe it is.

...but it's the other problems we have on offense that really have me worried. Particularly at running back.

 

[NoLongerN]

Last year Martinez had 91 carries in 7 games (13.0 per game).  521 yards (5.7 ypa), 7 TDs.

Justin Fields had 81 carries in 8 games (10.1 per game). 383 yards (4.7 ypa), 5 TDs.

Enjoyed your stat comparison.  Thanks for the work.

Here's how I was thinking and seeing it ...

We averaged just around 200-201 yards per game.  Of that, Martinez averaged about 75 YPG and Luke averaged about 52 YPG ... for a total of 127 YPG of the 200-201 yards rushing.

I took these stats from here ... http://www.cfbstats.com/2020/team/463/rushing/index.html

I think that is far too high of a percentage of the total running yards for that position.  

Since you used OSU in the example, here are those stats.
OSU averaged around 257 yards per game rushing.  Of that, Fields averaged 48 YPG ... for a total of 48 yards of the 257 YPG.

I took these stats from here ... http://www.cfbstats.com/2020/team/518/rushing/index.html

So, as I look at the numbers, OSU was getting 48 yards from the QB position, of their 257.
We, on the other hand, were getting 127 YPG of the 200-201 yards.  That is quite a bit of a difference ... as I see it.

Traditional, :bigredn:  has been known for a running team ... and that smash mouth type of football was from RB position first and foremost, then an option type QB.  I have no problem if you are of the opinion that we need to run Martinez for 125-150 yards a game.  If so, may I ask what is the option or view that we will do once Martinez is out to get that type of yardage from the next QB?

Personally, I think that we are better off getting our production from a great RB like a Sermon, who averaged for OSU 108 YPG and then Teague III who averaged 74 YPG.  I like that 1-2 punch far better than running our QB's for the majority of the running offense.  I'd much prefer Martinez to be the #3 or #4 rushing leader on the team, which is what Justin Fields was.

Again ... this is how I see it.  I don't think the sky is falling here.  I do think that Frost and company don't want to see 55-60% of the rushing attack coming from the QB position either ... so I don't think my view is an extreme or a negative view.