Agreed. And I'm sure the defense and offense wants a little payback.
The big thing with Northwestern is that they will probably have a regression to the mean, in terms of their record. It happened in 2019, they won more games than they probably should have in 2020, and 2021 will likely bring a record back closer to .500. Northwestern has so many close games, it’s near impossible to win those close games at the same percentage, year over year.
So, 3-4 games which you count as wins, the odds have near 50% win probability? That’s a tall order to win that many 50-50 games.Agreed. And I'm sure the defense and offense wants a little payback.
Seriously, this sched isn't as difficult as we hear it is. I still think this is a 9 win season. And here they are
Fordham (99%)
Buffalo (86%)
Northwestern (85%)
at Illinois (79%)
Purdue (67%)
at Michigan State (65%) - (only because it's a road game)
Michigan (53%) - (Should be closer to 60%)
at Minnesota (45%)
Iowa (43%) (Lincoln SR Day / Super SR Day)
Hear me out. They are going to be 5-1 heading into that Michigan. It's at home. Last meeting UM won like 62-3. A lot of players on our team where there, and probably circled this game. I really think we got this game.
I would love for that to happen, but I just don't see how NU goes from winning so few close (50-50) games during the Frost years to winning nearly every single 50-50 game. Now, there is regression to the mean potential on the other end for NU, but in my mind NU will still lose 2-3 toss up games this year. NU has 2 nearly guaranteed losses in OU and Ohio State. That means NU would need to be 9-1 in their remaining games to go 9-3. I just don't see that happening.
Here's the thing with toss up games. They are toss up games right now....before fall camp ever even starts. Once the season starts and everyone gets a few games under our belt, those toss up games COULD be adjusted either way. Let's say we come out and start 5-1 and Michigan and Minnesota really struggle. Those games might not be toss up games at that point.
But even if NU were to start 5-1, Michigan has more talent than NU and Minnesota has similar talent than NU. That's what makes those games toss-up games. A strong start may give NU positive thoughts going into those games, but once those games start the previously-played games mean nothing to the game being played that day.
Understandable. I'm fine with the fan base and media saying it's a 6 or 7 win team, based on the previous few seasons, the schedule, the league, etc. Keeping the hopes are bar low. It's really up to this team and staff to make it a 9 win season. I think they can do it. Ultimately it's up to them (with our home crowd bringing the extra juice). Should be a fun season.
It does compared to how those teams started and are playing.
The crappy part about NU over the past 6 years is that NU hasn't taken care of home field, and has had little success on the road. I just don't see how that trend magically reverses itself to the other end of the spectrum in one year.
Whoa a minute. I missed this gem before.
