Playing Power 5 teams will always look better than the lower conference teams in terms of strength of schedule.
- Sure, if you have the same record. But an 11-1 team with a win over podunk state has ALWAYS gotten the nod over a 10-2 team that didn't play podunk state.
It all evens out
- Nope. If the Pac 12 and B1G schools are both based on 7 home games, which they are, then it can't 'even out'. Every school has to take a hit. The only way to 'offset' having 6 home games one year is to have 8 the next. That isn't going to happen in this kind of a deal. We have already seen that going to a 9 game conference schedule in the B1G led to teams schedules two podunk games a year on the schedule to try and make up for it. In 2018 (don't have 2019 data) NU made about $5 million per home game. If they paid $1mil to the 'sacrificial' school then they are netting $4mil in that game. Technically, anything less than $5Mil is going to be profitable. Doing that twice a year would net an extra $8Mil for NU. Going to a home/home series to replace those two games would cost NU about 3.3Mil/year.
Current - 4+4=8M
Projected - (0 -.3(travel costs) )+5(not paying non P5 school)=4.7M
Unless the media rights deal changes then this is a negative for most schools. Even then it may still be a net negative as all games are already baked into the cake and the new slice to offset this change has to come from somewhere. Maybe it can come from some synergy with the PAC and B1G but I doubt it. If the replacement non-P5 game every year is worth an extra $6/7mil, split amongst both teams playing, then it is certainly feasible to do that and break even. That would require the Pac12 having a media contract similar to the B1G. Not impossible but history has shown that isn't realistic to expect.
You are correct, in the current model hundreds of millions would be saved over a long enough timeline. But, at the same time, billions would be lost. All for the privilege of not playing non-P5 schools. I just see it as stepping over dollars so you can pick up dimes.