*** 2022 Husker Previews: The Athletic - Is Nebraska closer to a breakthrough or breakdown? ***

Saunders

Saunders

Heisman Trophy Winner
Is Nebraska closer to a breakthrough or breakdown? In Scott Frost’s fifth season, a lot is on the line

The red flags around Nebraska rose early this year.

Not the traditional symbol adorned with that big red “N,” raised high to wave from all corners of this state.

No, these flags are warning signs. For the thousands who pledge steady support to the Huskers, the red flags are there, undoubtedly. They never actually receded after last season, a fifth consecutive year for Nebraska that finished in strikingly sad fashion.

Warning signs of what 2022 might deliver for a fragile football program were at the ready from the first days of this offseason. And that, for Nebraska, represents something new.

It’s all moving fast now for Scott Frost, who’s 15-29 in Lincoln entering his fifth season. Patience is thin. The moment is near for Nebraska to turn a corner or to turn its back on the coach and ex-

quarterback who helped bring the Huskers their most recent of five national championships, a quarter-century ago.

Even as the 47-year-old Frost tries to buy time, offering reasonable explanations that his revamped offensive staff and transfer-tinted roster remain in the early stages of an overhaul, the mood around him has shifted toward something dark.

https://theathletic.com/3264779/2022/04/26/nebraska-cornhuskers-football-preview-scott-frost-casey-thompson/
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One of the local scribes/radio guys (Sipple) just said he wouldn't be shocked to see the Huskers go 10-2 this season. 

I think I'd fall off my chair if we had double-digit wins, especially after losing the guys we lost from last year and the wholesale changes to the offensive staff.

 
It's very understandable to be very skeptical.  This team did so many things right last year....yet so many things wrong.

 
Frost said recently on his radio interview that ‘we’ are not making major changes, just a few tweaks.  Or words to this effect.  This, after firing his WRs, RBs, OL, and QB coaches in mid season?  And essentially firing himself as OC/play caller. Those are NOT minor tweaks - that is wholesale change targeting his offense.  
 

I just can’t reconcile those two things.  Minor tweaks could best be done using existing staff as they already know HIS system/schemes which he suggests are not changing as ‘they work’.  Bringing in 4 new coaches that don’t know him or his system or even each other is not a great way to do more of the same, only a bit better supposedly. ??  
 

We saw nothing new in the spring scrimmage but we’re told they didn’t show / reveal it to prevent opponents’ from scouting us.  We are also told the O line blocking is much different.  We hear that there is new efforts to run plays from under center some to help the run and play action passing games.  We now have a dedicated ST coach and more practice and focus. Etc.  

I consider these things as much more than minor tweaks.   Personally I hope for major changes in many areas.  Frankly, the team has hardly been consistently dominant in ANY position, phase or aspect of the team (offense, defense or STs) in 5 years now.  The line of scrimmage battle has been ‘lost’ 75% of the time.  These are MAJOR issues.  

 
If I fell into a coma and woke up in December to learn Neb went 10-2, I wouldn’t be shocked. If I woke up to learn they went 2-10 I also wouldn’t be shocked. The schedule sets up nicely, but SF has yet to prove he can put it all together. The new staff and player additions sound like needed upgrades, but who knows if they’ll gel. It’s maddening. 

Obviously anything can happen on any given Saturday, but for the sake of conversation I’ll pencil in W’s against North Dakota and Georgia Southern

Probable Wins: Again, anything can happen, but I think these games more likely than not end up as a Neb win. NW, Rutgers, Indiana

50/50 Games where I wouldn’t be shocked if we won by 10 or lost by 10: Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa.

Likely Loss: OU, Wis, Mich. 

Neb would need an absurd amount of breaks to get to 10-2, but hey, stranger things have happened. I think 8-4 is more likely, and while it would be nice… if those 4 losses were OU, Wis, Mich and Iowa it would feel like a very hollow “good” season, like 2016. 

 
Sip is usually pretty positive.  Maybe he is thinking that NU will get some breaks this year, they are due.

I know last year was crazy but how many of those losses "Should have" been wins?

MSU for sur

Minny?  I can't totally remember that one

What other games?

I think they should be a 9 win team next year.

 
84HuskerLaw said:
Frost said recently on his radio interview that ‘we’ are not making major changes, just a few tweaks.  Or words to this effect.  This, after firing his WRs, RBs, OL, and QB coaches in mid season?  And essentially firing himself as OC/play caller. Those are NOT minor tweaks - that is wholesale change targeting his offense.  
 

I just can’t reconcile those two things.  Minor tweaks could best be done using existing staff as they already know HIS system/schemes which he suggests are not changing as ‘they work’.  Bringing in 4 new coaches that don’t know him or his system or even each other is not a great way to do more of the same, only a bit better supposedly. ??  
 

We saw nothing new in the spring scrimmage but we’re told they didn’t show / reveal it to prevent opponents’ from scouting us.  We are also told the O line blocking is much different.  We hear that there is new efforts to run plays from under center some to help the run and play action passing games.  We now have a dedicated ST coach and more practice and focus. Etc.  

I consider these things as much more than minor tweaks.   Personally I hope for major changes in many areas.  Frankly, the team has hardly been consistently dominant in ANY position, phase or aspect of the team (offense, defense or STs) in 5 years now.  The line of scrimmage battle has been ‘lost’ 75% of the time.  These are MAJOR issues.  
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Ok

 
teachercd said:
Sip is usually pretty positive.  Maybe he is thinking that NU will get some breaks this year, they are due.

I know last year was crazy but how many of those losses "Should have" been wins?

MSU for sur

Minny?  I can't totally remember that one

What other games?

I think they should be a 9 win team next year.
Click to expand...


3 buckets for me:

Michigan, Michigan State, and Iowa all absolutely should have been wins - we had control late and gave them away. 

You can argue we should have won Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, and Wisconsin in that it never felt like they were the better team, we were just beating ourselves. But we were also never in control of those games so it's a little tougher to argue that we should have won based on how we played. Absolutely should have on paper

OSU and Oklahoma felt like they maybe could have gone our way with some breaks but we never looked like we were the better team. 

 
Husker in WI said:
3 buckets for me:

Michigan, Michigan State, and Iowa all absolutely should have been wins - we had control late and gave them away. 

You can argue we should have won Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, and Wisconsin in that it never felt like they were the better team, we were just beating ourselves. But we were also never in control of those games so it's a little tougher to argue that we should have won based on how we played. Absolutely should have on paper

OSU and Oklahoma felt like they maybe could have gone our way with some breaks but we never looked like we were the better team. 
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As much as I stuck up for Martinez,  what he had between the ears was an issue that cost us some wins.

 
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teachercd said:
Sip is usually pretty positive.  Maybe he is thinking that NU will get some breaks this year, they are due.

I know last year was crazy but how many of those losses "Should have" been wins?

MSU for sur

Minny?  I can't totally remember that one

What other games?

I think they should be a 9 win team next year.
Click to expand...


Nebraska 2021 Post Game Win Expectancy 

@ Illinois - 59%

Fordham - 90%

Buffalo -- 100%

Oklahoma - 12%

@ MSU - 83%

Northwestern - 100%

Michigan - 62%

Minnesota - 42%

Purdue - 56%

Ohio State - 51%

Wisconsin - 41%

Iowa - 97%

The 3 in red are games we won, the others in bold were games the numbers say we should have won. Then there's all the tossups, which we lost.

 
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Saunders said:
Nebraska 2021 Post Game Win Expectancy 

@ Illinois - 59%

Fordham - 90%

Buffalo -- 100%

Oklahoma - 12%

@ MSU - 83%

Northwestern - 100%

Michigan - 62%

Minnesota - 95%

Purdue - 56%

Ohio State - 51%

Wisconsin - 41%

Iowa - 97%

The 3 in red are games we won, the others in bold were games the numbers say we should have won. Then there's all the tossups, which we lost.
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Wow, that is crazy.  Switch those 3 and you are at 6-6...spilt on the 50% games and they are at 8 wins.

 
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