*** 2022 Husker Previews: The Athletic - Is Nebraska closer to a breakthrough or breakdown? ***

SouthLincoln Husker said:
As much as I stuck up for Martinez,  what he had between the ears was an issue that cost us some wins.
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Yea I'm hoping that's where Thompson is an upgrade over AM.  I believe in regards to overall talent they are very similar but Adrian was 0-15 on last drives to tie or win the game.  Woof...

 
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Saunders said:
Purdue - 56%
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I am floored at us having a > 50% win expectancy here.  We were god awful the last 40 minutes of that game.

Purdue had more first downs than us, had 0 turnovers to our 4 INTs, had less penalty yards, and almost double to time of possession.  We out yarded them, but that was due to us going 94 yards down 11 with 2:00 left to make it a one score game.

I assume yards/play is a big input into that calculation, which we won

Neb 58 plays 399 yards 6.9 ypp

Pur 86 plays 349 yards 4.1 ypp

After going up 17-7 in the 2Q we averaged 2.2 yards per play with 3 INTs over our next 8 drives until the TD drive in garbage time

3 plays for 0 yards

3 plays for 9 yards

2 plays for -4 yards INT

3 plays for -10 yards

4 plays for 29 yards

3 plays for 2 yards

1 play for 0 yards INT

3 plays for 22 yards INT

 
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Red Five said:
I am floored at us having a > 50% win expectancy here.  We were god awful the last 40 minutes of that game.

Purdue had more first downs than us, had 0 turnovers to our 4 INTs, had less penalty yards, and almost double to time of possession.  We out yarded them, but that was due to us going 94 yards down 11 with 2:00 left to make it a one score game.

After going up 17-7 in the 2Q we averaged 2 yards per play with 3 INTs over our next 8 drives until the TD drive in garbage time

3 plays for 0 yards

3 plays for 9 yards

2 plays for -4 yards INT

3 plays for -10 yards

4 plays for 29 yards

3 plays for 2 yards

1 play for 0 yards INT

3 plays for 22 yards INT
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It took every single one of those turnovers and a missed wide open receiver before the half though. The defense needed to do a better job getting off the field, but they averaged 4 yards per play. Over a season, 4.0 yards per play would be 129th (ahead of New Mexico at 3.9). Purdue got a lot of breaks from Martinez - that was his worst game by far in his career - and needed every last one.

 
knapplc said:
One of the local scribes/radio guys (Sipple) just said he wouldn't be shocked to see the Huskers go 10-2 this season. 

I think I'd fall off my chair if we had double-digit wins, especially after losing the guys we lost from last year and the wholesale changes to the offensive staff.
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Can you link this? Not because I don’t believe you but because I’d love to hear/see this for myself hahah

 
Husker in WI said:
It took every single one of those turnovers and a missed wide open receiver before the half though. The defense needed to do a better job getting off the field, but they averaged 4 yards per play. Over a season, 4.0 yards per play would be 129th (ahead of New Mexico at 3.9). Purdue got a lot of breaks from Martinez - that was his worst game by far in his career - and needed every last one.
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Yes, AM was turrible that game.  But does win probability not take into account turnovers?  If I were to look at just a box score and see Team A had 4 turnovers and Team B had 0 turnovers I would assume that Team B wins > 95% of the time.

 
Red Five said:
Yes, AM was turrible that game.  But does win probability not take into account turnovers?  If I were to look at just a box score and see Team A had 4 turnovers and Team B had 0 turnovers I would assume that Team B wins > 95% of the time.
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I'm not sure what all it takes into account, but I assume turnovers are part of it - again just goes to show how many things we had to have go wrong though. a 4-0 turnover margin is obviously a massive factor in Purdue's favor. But even with that  a 6.9 - 4.0 yards per play advantage made it a toss up. Over a season, 6.9 ypp would have been 5th - so it's basically an elite offense versus one of the very worst, but the elite one turns it over 4 times. 

 
DefenderAO said:
Between HCSF and each O and D lines...I definitely cannot see it.
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Not to mention also, Thompson reminds me a lot of AM... he throws into some very scary fronts. I agree with the O-line issues but the depth of our LB corp might mask some of the D-line depth issues. If the D-line finds a solid anchor at nose then I think it will be a pleasant surprise. IMO, when looking at the schedule I simply can't see how we don't win a minimum of 6 games and if we are 6-6 going into the bowls, we should be favored in the bowl game too. Gotta win the first one though. (My 6 wins)

  •  Northwestern
  • North Dakota
  • Georgia Southern
  • Indiana
  • Illinois
  • Minnesota

My toss ups:

  • Rutgers (road)
  • Purdue (also road)
  • Wisconsin (at home)
 
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knapplc said:
One of the local scribes/radio guys (Sipple) just said he wouldn't be shocked to see the Huskers go 10-2 this season. 

I think I'd fall off my chair if we had double-digit wins, especially after losing the guys we lost from last year and the wholesale changes to the offensive staff.
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Classic Sipple. 

 
Gotta get the OL better or it could be a long year

Key stat to know: When pressured in 2021, Martinez completed 49.6 percent of his 115 throws for 1,143 yards and 9.9 per attempt, with three touchdowns and four interceptions, according to Pro Football Focus. At Texas, Thompson was under pressure on 31.2 percent of his dropbacks and connected on 42.9 percent of 70 throws for 437 yards and 6.2 per attempt, with two touchdowns and five interceptions. Thompson generated 21 first downs to Martinez’s 51 while under pressure.
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Red Five said:
Gotta get the OL better or it could be a long year
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People happy to see us move on from Adrian and excited about Casey are in for a rude awakening if the line and skill positions aren't shored up around him. 

Adrian was a great player asked to do too much; Casey is a very similar type of quarterback. The biggest difference between AM and some of his more successful peers is that they only need to make 10 baller plays per game, while we relied on him needing to make 15. Usually he'd make 14.

 
Ouch

“There’s a lot of unraveling that’s taken place,” a Big Ten assistant coach said. “And then try to mend that together and piece it together with an entire new offensive staff. … I don’t know.”

The same coach said he’s regularly impressed with Nebraska’s talent. “They’ve got some dudes,” he said.

But the coach questions some of the moves made this offseason — including the hire of Whipple, who coached Heisman finalist Kenny Pickett at Pitt last season. Whipple resigned days before taking the Nebraska job in December.

“If you’re a player, you’d have to think, ‘Why would Mark Whipple come to us after he just coached one of the best quarterbacks in the country?’ Just bizarre, to say the least.

“That’s how I would describe everything that’s gone on there, just bizarre. You’ve got receivers that are leaving. You’ve got (a quarterback) that’s leaving. You’ve got coaches that are leaving.”

The Huskers were perhaps not as close to a breakthrough last season as they wanted to believe, the coach said.

“They will hang their hat on the fact that they lost all those games by single digits. That’s the culture: ‘Yeah, we were 3-9. Yeah, we were 1-8 (in the Big Ten). But we lost all those games by one score, and we’re right there.’

“You can make the argument that they’re a long ways from being there, just because of the little things.”
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