Rhule: Why he’ll succeed/Why he’ll fail

[Fru]

1 hour ago, Loebarth said:

This is why Rhule will not succeed. Don't care that I'm bringing it up and everyone will bash me for it. There's just entirely too many instances to ignore.

This and Westerkamp in 2016 have always stuck in my craw. 

 

[Dogs In A Pile]

Cool. We're already lining up excuses.

 

[lo country]

Cool. We're already lining up excuses.

I liked the presser where Rhule said we need to quit making excuses and blaming losses on things like officiating, the B1G doesn't like us etc.....

 

[Lorewarn]

What makes you say that? Is it because Rhule is that much better of a coach than the others in the B1G West? Or just because we used to be good and we still sell out the stadium?

Because I'd tend to say it's the opposite. Given the last six years for us, there aren't many reasons I can come up with that Nebraska can ever routinely threaten for a B1G Title and a playoff spot.

We still get top 25 recruiting classes after 6 losing seasons in a row. 

We also saw less than a decade ago that a mid-coach with decent development can have a benchmark of 9 wins here.

So if we have the right coach who can recruit well (unlike Pelini), and who can develop well (unlike Riley and Frost), why would we not be able to maintain being a top-15 team?

 

[Undone]

14 hours ago, Loebarth said:

This is why Rhule will not succeed. Don't care that I'm bringing it up and everyone will bash me for it. There's just entirely too many instances to ignore.

Not pictured: The seven points we spotted them on the first play of that game by letting them run the opening kickoff for a TD and being -2 in the turnover margin.

 

[Fru]

We still get top 25 recruiting classes after 6 losing seasons in a row. 

We also saw less than a decade ago that a mid-coach with decent development can have a benchmark of 9 wins here.

So if we have the right coach who can recruit well (unlike Pelini), and who can develop well (unlike Riley and Frost), why would we not be able to maintain being a top-15 team?

1000% This. At our absolute worst we’ve still been able to out recruit our division and most of the conference at large. Get the right staff in place and the future is very bright. 

I swear, some people think college football started in 2015. 

 

[Undone]

Get the right staff in place and the future is very bright. 

For sure. It's just way, way too early to tell whether Matt Rhule is actually that guy or not.

I swear, some people think college football started in 2015. 

This is an interesting talking point, but not for the reasons you're mentioning. This is around the time that parity really crept up in the B1G. Teams like Minnesota, Indiana, and eventually even Illinois slowly became games on a schedule that weren't automatic wins for the mid-tier teams like us. I'm a big Pelini fan, but I don't think he would have attained that 9 win minimum in the last 5ish seasons. But that's a different topic.

But back to your point, the right coach could get us back to being roughly in that zone of wins now that we can basically pay players a salary. And I mentioned that as being one of the reasons we could still be a decent team again. I just think it's much harder than people think it is, and I also think there's some entitlement that's baked into most fans' concept of what Husker football is in 2023.

 

[BaytownHusker]

Could you elaborate on this a bit? What coaches have clung to the past? Because honestly I just don’t see it. 
 

Callahan and Riley absolutely didn’t. Bo kind of embraced the past, but I don’t think he was ever terribly preoccupied by it. He did things his own way. Frost would make the occasional reference or bring in a teammate from the 90’s to give a pep talk, but at the time, Frost was as modern of a coaching candidate as we could get. 
 

I hear this “Stuck in the 90’s” or “Stuck in the Past” trope constantly but I really just don’t see it. If Neb was stuck in the 90’s, wouldn’t we be still trying to run the option with walk ons from Ord?

Was hiring two Pro Style/West Coast guys a result of us being “stuck in the 90’s?”

Bo was seen as an excellent hire at the time. Frost was considered an absolute home run hire. If both of those were considered to be good hires at the time, isn’t that a good thing, and not a result of being fixated on an antiquated approach?
 

Since 2003, I’d say Neb has been far more preoccupied with modernizing and reinventing itself than clinging to a bygone era. Sure, some folks on Twitter use the 90’s titles as a crutch when they’re getting roasted. Aside from that though, I think the Neb fan base could not be more focused on the future, and not the rear view mirror. 

Looking at how we have been since Bo i would say he was a excellent hire. 

 

[Fru]

For sure. It's just way, way too early to tell whether Matt Rhule is actually that guy or not.

Agreed. There’s things about Rhule that give me hope, but I’m also maintaining a healthy skepticism. I’ve bought in to every regime, coach, coordinator etc since Callahan. Not taking this one hook like and sinker this time around.

This is an interesting talking point, but not for the reasons you're mentioning. This is around the time that parity really crept up in the B1G. Teams like Minnesota, Indiana, and eventually even Illinois slowly became games on a schedule that weren't automatic wins for the mid-tier teams like us. I'm a big Pelini fan, but I don't think he would have attained that 9 win minimum in the last 5ish seasons. But that's a different topic.

I agree that Bo likely wouldn’t have maintained the 9 win consistency beyond 2014. Bo had the benefit of a 8 game conference schedule and the B1G of today is not the B1G back then. I attribute that parity to the increased revenue B1G members, except Neb, were receiving in that time frame. Everyone else was getting a bigger piece of the pie, except Neb. That allowed them to do facility renovations, put more $$ into recruiting resources and have bigger budgets for better hires. Everyone else was making more money than they ever had before, while Neb made two of the worst hires possible. It couldn’t have coincided at a worse time. I believe Neb didn’t receive a full member share until 2017. 

But back to your point, the right coach could get us back to being roughly in that zone of wins now that we can basically pay players a salary. And I mentioned that as being one of the reasons we could still be a decent team again. I just think it's much harder than people think it is, and I also think there's some entitlement that's baked into most fans' concept of what Husker football is in 2023.

NIL is definitely a major lifeline to getting Neb back to any kind of relevancy. By all accounts, our NIL is comparable to the big boys, and that’s without us even having a winning season in the NIL era. Imagine what it can do for the program if Rhule can string together a few winning seasons. 

 

[Undone]

NIL is definitely a major lifeline to getting Neb back to any kind of relevancy. By all accounts, our NIL is comparable to the big boys, and that’s without us even having a winning season in the NIL era. Imagine what it can do for the program if Rhule can string together a few winning seasons. 

For sure. Someone had shared a stat a few weeks ago about how NU is still something like 6th in the country in football net revenue. That's amazing.

And the portion of that money that's funneled in from boosters/alumni/that sort of thing used to go to coaching salaries & facilities. "Hey, check out all these new amenities we have now!" That's not nearly as enticing as "check out this salary we can offer you by coming here."

I do think we have somewhat of a leg up in that category compared to our competition in B1G West. Now it's just about having a staff that fully embraces being on the bleeding edges of it and pushing it to its fullest potential. And I think Rhule is probably down with that plan.

 

[Lorewarn]

This is an interesting talking point, but not for the reasons you're mentioning. This is around the time that parity really crept up in the B1G. Teams like Minnesota, Indiana, and eventually even Illinois slowly became games on a schedule that weren't automatic wins for the mid-tier teams like us. I'm a big Pelini fan, but I don't think he would have attained that 9 win minimum in the last 5ish seasons. But that's a different topic.

But back to your point, the right coach could get us back to being roughly in that zone of wins now that we can basically pay players a salary. And I mentioned that as being one of the reasons we could still be a decent team again. I just think it's much harder than people think it is, and I also think there's some entitlement that's baked into most fans' concept of what Husker football is in 2023.

You're definitely right that the conference by and large is much better than it was in 2011. 

But we've also got some institutionalization in our psyche as a fanbase, not realizing that we're going eight years of absolute garbage player development. We can't regularly beat Purdue or Minnesota or Illinois anymore but it's not only because they got better it's also (mostly) because we got WAY WAY worse. 

Those teams out-perform their recruiting results. We drastically under-perform ours. If this staff can even break even on output relative to talent we'll be one of the top dogs in the West.

 

[junior4949]

Agreed. There’s things about Rhule that give me hope, but I’m also maintaining a healthy skepticism. I’ve bought in to every regime, coach, coordinator etc since Callahan. Not taking this one hook like and sinker this time around.

I agree that Bo likely wouldn’t have maintained the 9 win consistency beyond 2014. Bo had the benefit of a 8 game conference schedule and the B1G of today is not the B1G back then. I attribute that parity to the increased revenue B1G members, except Neb, were receiving in that time frame. Everyone else was getting a bigger piece of the pie, except Neb. That allowed them to do facility renovations, put more $$ into recruiting resources and have bigger budgets for better hires. Everyone else was making more money than they ever had before, while Neb made two of the worst hires possible. It couldn’t have coincided at a worse time. I believe Neb didn’t receive a full member share until 2017. 

NIL is definitely a major lifeline to getting Neb back to any kind of relevancy. By all accounts, our NIL is comparable to the big boys, and that’s without us even having a winning season in the NIL era. Imagine what it can do for the program if Rhule can string together a few winning seasons. 

To the bolded:  yes, we are comparable to the big boys.  I saw a list that had us in the top 10.  Unfortunately, there are two other schools in the top 10 that either are in the B1G or will be by 2024.  Those two other schools are already leaps and bounds better than we are.  NIL more than likely helps us rise faster, but it isn't going to be the thing that causes us to compete for a B1G title or a playoff spot.

In order to compete for the top in the B1G, we are going to have to win in the trenches.  Winning in the trenches is not something that is going to happen over night.  Bowl eligibility is the first step.  It's going to take a while to even get in the conversation of competing for the B1G.  Rhule seems to be saying and doing the right things, but he is going to need some time.    

 

[Mavric]

Yeah, Tim Beck is remembered with such vitriol by so many fans but I don't really get it.

This popped up on Twitter today:


#2 - Abdullah - 2011-2014

#5 - Helu - 2007-2010

#6 - Burkhead - 2009-2012

#9 - Taylor Martinez - 2010-2013

Beck was the RB coach from 2008 to 2010 and the OC from 2011 to 2014.  So he wasn't the OC for Helu but was his position coach and - one would assume - had some input into the type of offense and gameplan.

So Beck had a pretty direct influence on four of the Top 9 all-time leading rushers.  But he - and the offensive line - were constantly derided my many fans.

Pretty much shows that people see what they want to see.

 

[Lorewarn]

This popped up on Twitter today:


#2 - Abdullah - 2011-2014

#5 - Helu - 2007-2010

#6 - Burkhead - 2009-2012

#9 - Taylor Martinez - 2010-2013

Beck was the RB coach from 2008 to 2010 and the OC from 2011 to 2014.  So he wasn't the OC for Helu but was his position coach and - one would assume - had some input into the type of offense and gameplan.

So Beck had a pretty direct influence on four of the Top 9 all-time leading rushers.  But he - and the offensive line - were constantly derided my many fans.

Pretty much shows that people see what they want to see.

Tim Beck is a weird one. He's had a very strange career, and has had a lot of production (especially in terms of raw non-contextual statistical output), but also had plenty of struggles and a consistent reputation across multiple fanbases of the same set of flaws.

He's a brilliant schemer and conceptualizer. One of the best I've ever seen. But quite mediocre as a live play-caller, or at the most generous, good but streaky and inconsistent. His output against quality competition while serving as the play-caller has always been pretty Jekyl and Hyde, great one week or one half or one quarter and hard to look at the next.

 

[Mavric]

He's a brilliant schemer and conceptualizer. One of the best I've ever seen. But quite mediocre as a live play-caller, 

If four of the top nine rushers in history over an eight year span is mediocre, sign me up for a whole lot of mediocre.